Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 1 May 2009 at 21:05:26 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Newcastle vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         33   77  +38      87.71     2.68    43.83    87.41    99.02   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       34   74  +40      83.21     2.23    46.18    12.24    91.35    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         34   71  +36      79.05     2.36    39.80     0.35     9.62    98.02   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         34   65  +28      71.34     2.45    29.46     0.00     0.01     1.99    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   55   +6      62.26     2.52     8.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Everton         34   53  +12      59.52     2.60    13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.00     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   47   +6      52.22     2.50     5.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.41     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        34   45   +0      50.21     2.47    -0.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   44   +8      49.95     2.48     8.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   44   +0      48.99     2.40    -0.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   41   -7      47.85     2.90    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   39  -16      43.33     2.44   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Bolton          34   38  -11      43.55     2.59   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.00  
Portsmouth      34   38  -15      42.69     2.54   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Blackburn       34   37  -18      41.44     2.35   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    0.00  
Sunderland      34   35  -15      38.78     2.39   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.29R    0.05  
Hull            34   34  -22      37.57     2.35   -25.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.78R    0.53  
Newcastle       34   31  -16      34.97     2.26   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.53R    6.44  
Middlesbrough   34   31  -24      34.07     2.22   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.80R   14.34  
West_Brom       34   28  -30      31.21     2.29   -33.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.49R   78.65  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Norwich vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    45   87  +27      89.11     1.20    28.11   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       45   80  +16      80.97     1.16    15.52     0.00    39.71   100.00    55.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   79  +25      80.57     1.29    25.29     0.00    33.38   100.00    55.37P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   77  +33      78.72     1.26    33.48     0.00    26.91   100.00    55.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   74  +13      75.44     1.31    13.11     0.00     0.00    93.84    16.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   73   +8      74.67     1.31     8.44     0.00     0.00    75.57    10.95P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          45   71  +11      72.70     1.27    11.46     0.00     0.00    30.59     5.38P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   68  +14      69.97     1.24    14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   63   +8      64.86     1.27     8.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   61   +4      62.08     1.26     3.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              45   61   -1      62.00     1.18    -1.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   -8      59.29     1.30    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   58  -10      58.67     1.07   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   56   -3      57.14     1.24    -3.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   55   -6      56.75     1.33    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   54  -10      55.03     1.27   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54  -10      54.88     1.16   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        45   53  -12      53.79     1.12   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         45   51  -12      52.57     1.28   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     45   50  -17      51.67     1.30   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   49  -14      50.12     1.22   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.99R    0.00  
Norwich          45   46  -11      47.31     1.31   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.01R    0.00  
Charlton         45   36  -24      37.44     1.32   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.34  
Southampton      45   35  -21      36.07     1.24   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.66  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 April 2009, Northampton vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        45   93  +42      95.08     1.23    43.10   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   88  +24      89.99     1.27    24.98     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   84  +35      86.18     1.17    36.25     0.00     0.00   100.00    36.13P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   82  +12      83.57     1.31    12.29     0.00     0.00   100.00    17.85P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            45   81  +25      82.95     1.26    25.86     0.00     0.00   100.00    28.49P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       45   75  +19      76.60     1.32    19.34     0.00     0.00    69.93    12.23P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   73  +13      74.15     1.28    12.66     0.00     0.00    30.07     5.31P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         45   68   -5      70.00     1.25    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   67   -3      68.33     1.28    -3.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   62   +0      63.23     1.30    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          45   61   -4      62.53     1.33    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   60  +15      61.96     1.28    15.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        45   60   +3      61.46     1.31     3.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   60   -2      61.49     1.29    -1.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   55  -12      56.38     1.29   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          45   52   -3      52.81     1.17    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   51  -23      52.21     1.25   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   50  -10      50.84     1.19   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Northampton      45   49   -1      49.82     1.16    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.67R    0.00  
Brighton         45   49  -16      50.28     1.29   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.57R    0.00  
Carlisle         45   47  -15      48.17     1.27   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.90R    0.00  
Crewe            45   46  -20      46.72     1.11   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.49R    0.00  
Cheltenham       45   39  -38      39.78     1.14   -38.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hereford         45   34  -36      34.61     1.03   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            45   82  +27      84.10     1.20    28.07   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   78  +22      80.17     1.15    23.12     0.00    98.78   100.00    99.16P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   76  +14      77.08     1.23    13.61     0.00    44.16   100.00    57.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   75  +19      77.06     1.20    19.97     0.00    57.06   100.00    69.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   72   +2      72.97     1.22     1.35     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.43P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   70  +12      71.80     1.30    12.65     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.80P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   68  +25      69.70     1.30    25.47     0.00     0.00    73.75    24.81P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   66  +16      67.05     1.24    15.53     0.00     0.00    26.25     7.66P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   64   +9      65.14     1.28     8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         45   63   +7      64.61     1.32     7.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   63   +1      64.56     1.29     1.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington           45   59  +16      60.88     1.26    16.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   59   +3      61.01     1.25     3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   58  +15      59.64     1.29    15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   50  -16      50.69     1.04   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   50  -24      50.77     1.13   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               45   48  -17      49.78     1.30   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   46  -32      46.91     1.20   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   45  -23      45.98     1.22   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         45   44  -21      44.59     0.96   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          45   43   +4      44.15     1.25     3.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              45   40  -18      41.86     1.29   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.15R    0.00  
Chester              45   39  -36      39.86     1.15   -36.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.85R    0.00  
Luton                45   26   -5      26.67     1.05    -6.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30
Darlington           -10


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 24 April 2009, Weymouth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.16     1.28    29.66    90.67   100.00    93.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.20     1.15    27.23     9.33   100.00    36.12P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               45   82  +30      83.27     1.30    29.83     0.00   100.00    28.07P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   81  +20      82.39     1.31    20.02     0.00    93.55    17.93P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   80  +24      81.60     1.32    24.34     0.00    74.55    17.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   77  +22      79.24     1.16    23.42     0.00    16.81     3.74P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        44   76  +18      79.24     1.80    18.71     0.00    15.09     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            45   73  +12      74.11     1.20    11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         45   70  +22      71.49     1.33    22.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              45   63  +14      65.34     1.10    15.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.93     1.22     9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.74     1.31    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   59   +1      60.35     1.31     0.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     45   57   -8      58.61     1.30    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           45   55  -17      55.59     0.99   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.12     1.25   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         45   52   -5      53.42     1.32    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York                 45   51   -4      52.91     1.23    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic       45   49  -21      50.33     1.32   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               45   48  -16      49.02     1.24   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.80     1.60   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.73R    0.00  
Weymouth             45   43  -39      43.49     0.94   -40.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.27R    0.00  
Northwich            45   40  -20      40.58     1.03   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                45   23  -61      23.80     1.09   -61.73     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4
Oxford_Utd           -5