Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 30 April 2009 at 21:05:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Newcastle vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         33   77  +38      87.72     2.70    43.85    87.20    98.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       34   74  +40      83.20     2.23    46.19    12.48    91.02    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         34   71  +36      79.10     2.35    39.87     0.32     9.98    98.09   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         34   65  +28      71.33     2.45    29.42     0.00     0.01     1.92    99.85   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   55   +6      62.28     2.51     8.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Everton         34   53  +12      59.54     2.59    13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.21     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   47   +6      52.21     2.46     5.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.19     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        34   45   +0      50.22     2.46    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   44   +8      49.89     2.49     8.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   44   +0      49.02     2.43    -0.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   41   -7      47.84     2.89    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   39  -16      43.36     2.45   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Bolton          34   38  -11      43.60     2.59   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Portsmouth      34   38  -15      42.69     2.53   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Blackburn       34   37  -18      41.43     2.35   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    0.00  
Sunderland      34   35  -15      38.72     2.38   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.42R    0.04  
Hull            34   34  -22      37.55     2.34   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.48R    0.55  
Newcastle       34   31  -16      34.96     2.26   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.43R    6.24  
Middlesbrough   34   31  -24      34.05     2.21   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.16R   14.55  
West_Brom       34   28  -30      31.23     2.29   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.44R   78.62  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Norwich vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    45   87  +27      89.11     1.20    28.12   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       45   80  +16      80.97     1.16    15.52     0.00    39.98   100.00    56.02P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   79  +25      80.56     1.29    25.27     0.00    32.80   100.00    55.09P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   77  +33      78.72     1.26    33.48     0.00    27.23   100.00    55.87P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   74  +13      75.44     1.31    13.11     0.00     0.00    93.46    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   73   +8      74.66     1.31     8.43     0.00     0.00    75.18    10.92P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          45   71  +11      72.71     1.27    11.47     0.00     0.00    31.35     5.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   68  +14      69.98     1.24    14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   63   +8      64.87     1.27     8.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   61   +4      62.09     1.26     3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              45   61   -1      61.99     1.18    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   -8      59.29     1.29    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   58  -10      58.67     1.06   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   56   -3      57.15     1.24    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   55   -6      56.76     1.32    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   54  -10      55.02     1.26   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54  -10      54.88     1.16   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        45   53  -12      53.78     1.11   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         45   51  -12      52.58     1.27   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     45   50  -17      51.67     1.30   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   49  -14      50.11     1.22   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.89R    0.00  
Norwich          45   46  -11      47.31     1.31   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.11R    0.00  
Charlton         45   36  -24      37.44     1.32   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.58  
Southampton      45   35  -21      36.07     1.24   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.42  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 April 2009, Northampton vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        45   93  +42      95.08     1.23    43.09   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   88  +24      89.99     1.27    24.99     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   84  +35      86.17     1.18    36.22     0.00     0.00   100.00    35.55P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   82  +12      83.58     1.31    12.30     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            45   81  +25      82.94     1.26    25.85     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.87P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       45   75  +19      76.62     1.32    19.36     0.00     0.00    70.39    12.82P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   73  +13      74.14     1.27    12.64     0.00     0.00    29.61     5.47P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         45   68   -5      70.00     1.25    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   67   -3      68.34     1.28    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   62   +0      63.23     1.30    -0.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          45   61   -4      62.52     1.32    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   60  +15      61.98     1.28    15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        45   60   +3      61.44     1.31     3.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   60   -2      61.49     1.29    -1.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   55  -12      56.37     1.28   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          45   52   -3      52.80     1.17    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   51  -23      52.21     1.25   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   50  -10      50.83     1.19   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Northampton      45   49   -1      49.83     1.15    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.16R    0.00  
Brighton         45   49  -16      50.29     1.29   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.33R    0.00  
Carlisle         45   47  -15      48.15     1.26   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.61R    0.00  
Crewe            45   46  -20      46.72     1.10   -21.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.54R    0.00  
Cheltenham       45   39  -38      39.78     1.14   -38.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hereford         45   34  -36      34.63     1.04   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            45   82  +27      84.12     1.19    28.09   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   78  +22      80.19     1.14    23.13     0.00    98.82   100.00    99.20P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   76  +14      77.09     1.24    13.61     0.00    43.84   100.00    57.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   75  +19      77.09     1.18    20.02     0.00    57.34   100.00    69.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   72   +2      72.97     1.23     1.36     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   70  +12      71.80     1.30    12.64     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.36P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   68  +25      69.69     1.30    25.45     0.00     0.00    73.62    24.55P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   66  +16      67.05     1.24    15.55     0.00     0.00    26.38     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   64   +9      65.15     1.28     8.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         45   63   +7      64.60     1.32     7.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   63   +1      64.54     1.29     1.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington           45   59  +16      60.87     1.26    16.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   59   +3      61.01     1.25     3.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   58  +15      59.64     1.30    15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   50  -16      50.66     1.02   -17.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   50  -24      50.77     1.13   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               45   48  -17      49.79     1.29   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   46  -32      46.92     1.21   -32.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   45  -23      45.96     1.21   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         45   44  -21      44.57     0.95   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          45   43   +4      44.17     1.25     3.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              45   40  -18      41.85     1.29   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.21R    0.00  
Chester              45   39  -36      39.87     1.15   -36.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.79R    0.00  
Luton                45   26   -5      26.66     1.05    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30
Darlington           -10


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 24 April 2009, Weymouth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.19     1.29    29.72    91.19   100.00    93.52P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.19     1.16    27.21     8.81   100.00    35.65P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               45   82  +30      83.27     1.30    29.84     0.00   100.00    28.46P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   81  +20      82.39     1.31    20.03     0.00    93.92    18.15P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   80  +24      81.56     1.32    24.28     0.00    73.61    17.26P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   77  +22      79.25     1.16    23.45     0.00    17.38     3.90P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        44   76  +18      79.24     1.79    18.71     0.00    15.09     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            45   73  +12      74.11     1.20    11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         45   70  +22      71.48     1.32    22.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              45   63  +14      65.33     1.10    15.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.93     1.22     9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.75     1.31    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   59   +1      60.34     1.30     0.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     45   57   -8      58.62     1.30    -7.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           45   55  -17      55.60     1.01   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.10     1.24   -10.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         45   52   -5      53.43     1.32    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York                 45   51   -4      52.92     1.22    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic       45   49  -21      50.32     1.31   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               45   48  -16      49.01     1.24   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.80     1.61   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.90R    0.00  
Weymouth             45   43  -39      43.50     0.95   -40.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.10R    0.00  
Northwich            45   40  -20      40.57     1.02   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                45   23  -61      23.80     1.08   -61.73     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4
Oxford_Utd           -5