Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 29 April 2009 at 21:05:17 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Newcastle vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         33   77  +38      87.71     2.70    43.85    87.42    99.04   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       34   74  +40      83.15     2.24    46.12    12.22    90.96    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         34   71  +36      79.08     2.36    39.83     0.36     9.99    98.10   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         34   65  +28      71.32     2.46    29.41     0.00     0.01     1.91    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   55   +6      62.24     2.53     8.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Everton         34   53  +12      59.51     2.60    13.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.05     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   47   +6      52.22     2.49     5.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        34   45   +0      50.23     2.49    -0.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   44   +8      49.94     2.47     8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   44   +0      48.99     2.41    -0.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   41   -7      47.85     2.91    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   39  -16      43.38     2.47   -17.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Bolton          34   38  -11      43.52     2.58   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Portsmouth      34   38  -15      42.68     2.54   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34R    0.00  
Blackburn       34   37  -18      41.44     2.34   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.37R    0.00  
Sunderland      34   35  -15      38.78     2.40   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.27R    0.03  
Hull            34   34  -22      37.59     2.36   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.94R    0.54  
Newcastle       34   31  -16      34.97     2.28   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.66R    6.62  
Middlesbrough   34   31  -24      34.10     2.24   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.64R   14.28  
West_Brom       34   28  -30      31.23     2.31   -33.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.43R   78.53  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Norwich vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    45   87  +27      89.10     1.20    28.10   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       45   80  +16      80.97     1.16    15.52     0.00    39.83   100.00    56.12P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   79  +25      80.56     1.29    25.27     0.00    32.93   100.00    55.09P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   77  +33      78.72     1.26    33.48     0.00    27.24   100.00    55.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   74  +13      75.43     1.31    13.09     0.00     0.00    93.63    16.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   73   +8      74.67     1.31     8.44     0.00     0.00    75.31    11.03P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          45   71  +11      72.71     1.27    11.47     0.00     0.00    31.06     5.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   68  +14      69.98     1.24    14.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   63   +8      64.85     1.27     8.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   61   +4      62.09     1.26     3.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              45   61   -1      61.99     1.18    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   -8      59.30     1.30    -8.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   58  -10      58.68     1.06   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   56   -3      57.15     1.24    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   55   -6      56.76     1.33    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   54  -10      55.03     1.27   -10.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54  -10      54.89     1.17   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        45   53  -12      53.78     1.12   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         45   51  -12      52.59     1.27   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     45   50  -17      51.66     1.30   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   49  -14      50.10     1.21   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.29R    0.00  
Norwich          45   46  -11      47.32     1.31   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.71R    0.00  
Charlton         45   36  -24      37.43     1.33   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.88  
Southampton      45   35  -21      36.07     1.24   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.12  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 April 2009, Northampton vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        45   93  +42      95.09     1.22    43.11   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   88  +24      89.99     1.27    24.98     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   84  +35      86.16     1.19    36.22     0.00     0.00   100.00    35.86P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   82  +12      83.58     1.31    12.29     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.08P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            45   81  +25      82.95     1.26    25.86     0.00     0.00   100.00    28.12P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       45   75  +19      76.61     1.32    19.35     0.00     0.00    70.21    12.52P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   73  +13      74.14     1.27    12.65     0.00     0.00    29.79     5.43P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         45   68   -5      70.01     1.25    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   67   -3      68.34     1.28    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   62   +0      63.23     1.30    -0.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          45   61   -4      62.52     1.33    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   60  +15      61.97     1.28    15.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        45   60   +3      61.44     1.31     3.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   60   -2      61.50     1.28    -1.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   55  -12      56.36     1.28   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          45   52   -3      52.81     1.17    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   51  -23      52.20     1.24   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   50  -10      50.84     1.19   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Northampton      45   49   -1      49.82     1.16    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.44R    0.00  
Brighton         45   49  -16      50.29     1.29   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.55R    0.00  
Carlisle         45   47  -15      48.16     1.27   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.28R    0.00  
Crewe            45   46  -20      46.71     1.10   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.44R    0.00  
Cheltenham       45   39  -38      39.78     1.14   -38.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hereford         45   34  -36      34.63     1.05   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            45   82  +27      84.11     1.19    28.09   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   78  +22      80.18     1.14    23.11     0.00    98.78   100.00    99.18P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   76  +14      77.07     1.24    13.59     0.00    43.84   100.00    57.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   75  +19      77.08     1.19    20.00     0.00    57.38   100.00    70.05P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   72   +2      72.98     1.23     1.37     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   70  +12      71.79     1.30    12.63     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.59P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   68  +25      69.69     1.30    25.47     0.00     0.00    73.73    24.93P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   66  +16      67.05     1.24    15.53     0.00     0.00    26.27     7.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   64   +9      65.13     1.28     8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         45   63   +7      64.63     1.32     7.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   63   +1      64.54     1.29     1.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington           45   59  +16      60.87     1.26    16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   59   +3      61.02     1.24     3.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   58  +15      59.65     1.30    15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   50  -16      50.67     1.03   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   50  -24      50.76     1.12   -24.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               45   48  -17      49.78     1.30   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   46  -32      46.90     1.19   -32.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   45  -23      45.97     1.22   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         45   44  -21      44.58     0.96   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          45   43   +4      44.17     1.25     3.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              45   40  -18      41.88     1.29   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.20R    0.00  
Chester              45   39  -36      39.87     1.16   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.80R    0.00  
Luton                45   26   -5      26.66     1.05    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30
Darlington           -10


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 24 April 2009, Weymouth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.16     1.28    29.68    90.82   100.00    93.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.19     1.15    27.23     9.18   100.00    36.40P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               45   82  +30      83.25     1.30    29.82     0.00   100.00    28.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   81  +20      82.39     1.31    20.03     0.00    93.73    18.02P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   80  +24      81.59     1.32    24.32     0.00    74.56    17.25P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   77  +22      79.24     1.16    23.44     0.00    16.61     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        44   76  +18      79.24     1.79    18.71     0.00    15.10     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            45   73  +12      74.11     1.21    11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         45   70  +22      71.49     1.32    22.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              45   63  +14      65.34     1.10    15.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.93     1.22     9.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.74     1.31    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   59   +1      60.34     1.30     0.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     45   57   -8      58.61     1.30    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           45   55  -17      55.59     0.99   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.12     1.25   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         45   52   -5      53.43     1.33    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York                 45   51   -4      52.94     1.22    -3.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic       45   49  -21      50.32     1.32   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               45   48  -16      49.02     1.24   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.80     1.61   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.81R    0.00  
Weymouth             45   43  -39      43.49     0.94   -40.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.19R    0.00  
Northwich            45   40  -20      40.58     1.02   -21.44     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                45   23  -61      23.78     1.08   -61.76     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4
Oxford_Utd           -5