Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 28 April 2009 at 21:05:16 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Newcastle vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         33   77  +38      87.66     2.70    43.74    87.07    98.96   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       34   74  +40      83.19     2.22    46.16    12.58    91.06    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         34   71  +36      79.06     2.37    39.81     0.35     9.98    98.02   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         34   65  +28      71.36     2.45    29.45     0.00     0.01     2.00    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   55   +6      62.25     2.53     8.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Everton         34   53  +12      59.54     2.60    13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    96.17     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   47   +6      52.19     2.47     5.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.26     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        34   45   +0      50.21     2.48    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   44   +8      49.95     2.48     8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   44   +0      48.98     2.41    -0.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   41   -7      47.87     2.89    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   39  -16      43.35     2.45   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Bolton          34   38  -11      43.54     2.57   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Portsmouth      34   38  -15      42.67     2.55   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38R    0.00  
Blackburn       34   37  -18      41.45     2.36   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    0.00  
Sunderland      34   35  -15      38.75     2.38   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.39R    0.03  
Hull            34   34  -22      37.60     2.35   -25.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.29R    0.53  
Newcastle       34   31  -16      34.98     2.26   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.76R    6.42  
Middlesbrough   34   31  -24      34.08     2.23   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.90R   14.31  
West_Brom       34   28  -30      31.23     2.28   -33.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.54R   78.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Norwich vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    45   87  +27      89.11     1.20    28.11   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       45   80  +16      80.97     1.16    15.52     0.00    39.87   100.00    55.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   79  +25      80.56     1.29    25.28     0.00    33.19   100.00    55.41P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   77  +33      78.72     1.26    33.48     0.00    26.93   100.00    56.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   74  +13      75.45     1.31    13.12     0.00     0.00    93.75    16.37P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   73   +8      74.66     1.31     8.43     0.00     0.00    75.06    10.63P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          45   71  +11      72.71     1.27    11.47     0.00     0.00    31.20     5.34P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   68  +14      69.98     1.24    14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   63   +8      64.86     1.26     8.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   61   +4      62.09     1.26     3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              45   61   -1      61.99     1.18    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   -8      59.28     1.29    -8.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   58  -10      58.67     1.06   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   56   -3      57.15     1.24    -3.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   55   -6      56.75     1.32    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   54  -10      55.03     1.26   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54  -10      54.88     1.16   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        45   53  -12      53.78     1.12   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         45   51  -12      52.57     1.27   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     45   50  -17      51.67     1.30   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   49  -14      50.12     1.22   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.96R    0.00  
Norwich          45   46  -11      47.32     1.31   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.04R    0.00  
Charlton         45   36  -24      37.43     1.32   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.64  
Southampton      45   35  -21      36.07     1.24   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.36  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 April 2009, Northampton vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        45   93  +42      95.09     1.22    43.11   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   88  +24      89.98     1.27    24.98     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          45   84  +35      86.17     1.18    36.22     0.00     0.00   100.00    36.24P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   82  +12      83.57     1.31    12.29     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            45   81  +25      82.94     1.26    25.86     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.87P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       45   75  +19      76.60     1.32    19.34     0.00     0.00    69.94    12.16P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   73  +13      74.15     1.28    12.66     0.00     0.00    30.06     5.49P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         45   68   -5      70.00     1.25    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   67   -3      68.34     1.28    -3.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   62   +0      63.23     1.30    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          45   61   -4      62.53     1.33    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   60  +15      61.98     1.28    16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        45   60   +3      61.45     1.31     3.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   60   -2      61.50     1.28    -1.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   55  -12      56.37     1.28   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          45   52   -3      52.81     1.17    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   51  -23      52.20     1.25   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   50  -10      50.83     1.19   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42R    0.00  
Northampton      45   49   -1      49.83     1.16    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.29R    0.00  
Brighton         45   49  -16      50.28     1.29   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.50R    0.00  
Carlisle         45   47  -15      48.16     1.27   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.15R    0.00  
Crewe            45   46  -20      46.70     1.10   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.65R    0.00  
Cheltenham       45   39  -38      39.78     1.14   -38.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hereford         45   34  -36      34.63     1.05   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            45   82  +27      84.11     1.20    28.08   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   78  +22      80.18     1.14    23.12     0.00    98.73   100.00    99.15P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   76  +14      77.09     1.24    13.62     0.00    44.74   100.00    57.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   75  +19      77.06     1.20    19.98     0.00    56.54   100.00    68.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   72   +2      72.98     1.23     1.37     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   70  +12      71.79     1.30    12.63     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.76P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   68  +25      69.70     1.30    25.48     0.00     0.00    73.97    25.45P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   66  +16      67.04     1.23    15.52     0.00     0.00    26.03     7.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   64   +9      65.14     1.28     8.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         45   63   +7      64.61     1.32     7.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   63   +1      64.55     1.29     1.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington           45   59  +16      60.87     1.26    16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   59   +3      61.01     1.25     3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   58  +15      59.64     1.30    15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   50  -16      50.69     1.04   -16.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   50  -24      50.77     1.13   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               45   48  -17      49.79     1.30   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   46  -32      46.91     1.20   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   45  -23      45.97     1.22   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         45   44  -21      44.58     0.96   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          45   43   +4      44.17     1.25     3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              45   40  -18      41.86     1.29   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.32R    0.00  
Chester              45   39  -36      39.87     1.16   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.68R    0.00  
Luton                45   26   -5      26.67     1.05    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30
Darlington           -10


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 24 April 2009, Weymouth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.18     1.29    29.69    90.88   100.00    93.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.19     1.16    27.21     9.12   100.00    36.28P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               45   82  +30      83.26     1.30    29.82     0.00   100.00    28.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   81  +20      82.41     1.31    20.06     0.00    93.61    17.96P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   80  +24      81.58     1.32    24.31     0.00    73.96    17.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   77  +22      79.24     1.16    23.43     0.00    17.07     3.78P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        44   76  +18      79.24     1.80    18.71     0.00    15.37     3.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            45   73  +12      74.10     1.20    11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         45   70  +22      71.49     1.32    22.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              45   63  +14      65.33     1.11    15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.92     1.22     9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.74     1.31    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   59   +1      60.33     1.30     0.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     45   57   -8      58.61     1.30    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           45   55  -17      55.60     1.00   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.12     1.25   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         45   52   -5      53.45     1.32    -4.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York                 45   51   -4      52.92     1.23    -3.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic       45   49  -21      50.31     1.31   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               45   48  -16      49.02     1.24   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.81     1.61   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.97R    0.00  
Weymouth             45   43  -39      43.50     0.95   -40.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.03R    0.00  
Northwich            45   40  -20      40.58     1.03   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                45   23  -61      23.80     1.09   -61.74     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4
Oxford_Utd           -5