Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 27 April 2009 at 21:05:30 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 April 2009, Arsenal vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         33   77  +38      87.69     2.70    43.80    87.12    98.95   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       34   74  +40      83.20     2.23    46.23    12.55    91.23    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         34   71  +36      79.06     2.35    39.81     0.33     9.82    98.04   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         34   65  +28      71.37     2.45    29.49     0.00     0.00     1.97    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   55   +6      62.26     2.51     8.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Everton         34   53  +12      59.54     2.58    13.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.23     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   47   +6      52.21     2.48     5.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.33     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        34   45   +0      50.23     2.48    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        34   44   +8      49.93     2.47     8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       34   44   +0      48.98     2.40    -0.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   41   -7      47.90     2.91    -6.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   39  -16      43.32     2.46   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Bolton          34   38  -11      43.54     2.59   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32R    0.00  
Portsmouth      33   37  -15      42.83     2.90   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.38R    0.00  
Blackburn       34   37  -18      41.44     2.35   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.89R    0.00  
Sunderland      34   35  -15      38.76     2.39   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.45R    0.03  
Hull            34   34  -22      37.58     2.34   -25.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.18R    0.63  
Middlesbrough   34   31  -24      34.06     2.21   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.95R   14.40  
Newcastle       33   30  -16      35.60     2.67   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.99R    5.98  
West_Brom       34   28  -30      31.22     2.28   -33.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.67R   78.96  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 April 2009, Norwich vs Reading; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    45   87  +27      89.12     1.20    28.12   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       45   80  +16      80.98     1.17    15.54     0.00    40.06   100.00    56.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   79  +25      80.58     1.29    25.30     0.00    33.17   100.00    55.51P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          45   77  +33      78.71     1.26    33.46     0.00    26.77   100.00    55.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          45   74  +13      75.45     1.31    13.11     0.00     0.00    93.85    16.67P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          45   73   +8      74.66     1.31     8.43     0.00     0.00    75.06    10.93P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          45   71  +11      72.72     1.27    11.48     0.00     0.00    31.09     5.35P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          45   68  +14      69.97     1.24    14.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          45   63   +8      64.86     1.26     8.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     45   61   +4      62.09     1.26     3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              45   61   -1      61.99     1.18    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        45   58   -8      59.29     1.29    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        45   58  -10      58.67     1.06   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   45   56   -3      57.13     1.24    -3.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          45   55   -6      56.75     1.32    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Derby            45   54  -10      55.03     1.26   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   54  -10      54.88     1.16   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        45   53  -12      53.78     1.12   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         45   51  -12      52.58     1.28   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     45   50  -17      51.66     1.30   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   49  -14      50.11     1.22   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.28R    0.00  
Norwich          45   46  -11      47.32     1.31   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.72R    0.00  
Charlton         45   36  -24      37.43     1.32   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   25.98  
Southampton      45   35  -21      36.08     1.24   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.02  

Adjustments:
Southampton      -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 April 2009, Cheltenham vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        45   93  +42      95.09     1.22    43.11   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   88  +24      89.99     1.27    24.97     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   82  +12      83.57     1.31    12.28     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          44   81  +34      84.84     1.79    35.69     0.00     0.00   100.00    35.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            45   81  +25      82.93     1.27    25.84     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         45   73  +13      74.18     1.28    12.69     0.00     0.00    34.07     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       44   72  +16      75.90     1.76    18.02     0.00     0.00    65.93    11.85P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         45   68   -5      69.98     1.26    -4.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     45   67   -3      68.33     1.28    -3.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   62   +0      63.24     1.30    -0.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          45   61   -4      62.52     1.32    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   45   60  +15      61.97     1.28    15.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        45   60   +3      61.45     1.31     3.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       45   60   -2      61.50     1.28    -1.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    45   55  -12      56.38     1.29   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          45   52   -3      52.81     1.17    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           45   51  -23      52.20     1.25   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       45   50  -10      50.83     1.19   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.00  
Northampton      44   49   +0      50.93     1.73    -1.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.05R    0.00  
Brighton         45   49  -16      50.28     1.29   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.83R    0.00  
Carlisle         45   47  -15      48.17     1.27   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.95R    0.00  
Crewe            45   46  -20      46.70     1.10   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.54R    0.00  
Cheltenham       44   39  -35      40.34     1.55   -37.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hereford         45   34  -36      34.63     1.04   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            45   82  +27      84.10     1.20    28.08   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   78  +22      80.17     1.14    23.12     0.00    98.81   100.00    99.18P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   76  +14      77.08     1.24    13.61     0.00    44.33   100.00    57.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   75  +19      77.07     1.20    19.98     0.00    56.86   100.00    69.55P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           45   72   +2      72.98     1.23     1.37     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   70  +12      71.79     1.31    12.63     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.05P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   68  +25      69.69     1.30    25.45     0.00     0.00    73.40    24.68P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           45   66  +16      67.06     1.24    15.55     0.00     0.00    26.60     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             45   64   +9      65.14     1.28     8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         45   63   +7      64.62     1.32     7.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   63   +1      64.55     1.29     1.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Darlington           45   59  +16      60.87     1.26    16.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         45   59   +3      61.01     1.25     3.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            45   58  +15      59.64     1.30    15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   50  -16      50.68     1.04   -16.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            45   50  -24      50.77     1.13   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               45   48  -17      49.79     1.29   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         45   46  -32      46.91     1.20   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            45   45  -23      45.97     1.21   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         45   44  -21      44.58     0.96   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          45   43   +4      44.17     1.25     3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              45   40  -18      41.86     1.29   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.37R    0.00  
Chester              45   39  -36      39.87     1.15   -36.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.63R    0.00  
Luton                45   26   -5      26.67     1.05    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30
Darlington           -10


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 24 April 2009, Weymouth vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.18     1.29    29.70    91.02   100.00    93.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.19     1.16    27.21     8.98   100.00    36.17P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               45   82  +30      83.27     1.30    29.85     0.00   100.00    28.55P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   81  +20      82.39     1.31    20.03     0.00    93.87    17.75P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              45   80  +24      81.57     1.32    24.30     0.00    74.03    17.25P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   77  +22      79.23     1.16    23.42     0.00    16.93     3.78P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        44   76  +18      79.23     1.80    18.70     0.00    15.17     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            45   73  +12      74.11     1.21    11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         45   70  +22      71.48     1.32    22.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              45   63  +14      65.32     1.11    15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.93     1.22     9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.74     1.31    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   59   +1      60.35     1.30     0.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     45   57   -8      58.62     1.30    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           45   55  -17      55.59     1.00   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.11     1.25   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         45   52   -5      53.43     1.33    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
York                 45   51   -4      52.92     1.23    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic       45   49  -21      50.33     1.32   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               45   48  -16      49.02     1.24   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.80     1.61   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.94R    0.00  
Weymouth             45   43  -39      43.50     0.95   -40.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.06R    0.00  
Northwich            45   40  -20      40.59     1.03   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                45   23  -61      23.80     1.09   -61.73     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4
Oxford_Utd           -5