Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 20 April 2009 at 21:05:47 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 19 April 2009, Man_City vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.16     3.20    41.43    68.67    94.65    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.46     2.82    46.34    29.05    87.75    99.84   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.96     2.99    40.51     2.27    17.46    96.77   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.65     2.96    28.42     0.00     0.14     3.45    97.24   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   54   +6      62.76     2.92     9.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.91    99.27     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.93     3.19    14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86    96.63     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        33   45   +1      51.06     2.74    -0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   44   +5      51.05     2.82     5.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       33   44   +3      49.76     2.61     1.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        33   41   +7      47.87     2.81     6.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.62     3.23    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           33   39  -15      44.14     2.72   -17.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Bolton          33   37  -11      43.70     2.95   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
Portsmouth      32   37  -13      43.15     3.04   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.60R    0.00  
Sunderland      33   35  -12      40.45     2.82   -13.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.03R    0.02  
Hull            33   34  -20      38.10     2.56   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.86R    0.20  
Blackburn       33   34  -20      39.66     2.71   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.47R    0.15  
Middlesbrough   33   31  -22      34.48     2.40   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.26R    5.33  
Newcastle       33   30  -16      35.62     2.68   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.42R    2.65  
West_Brom       33   25  -33      29.23     2.61   -37.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.49R   91.66  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 April 2009, Burnley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    44   86  +27      89.90     1.77    28.73   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       44   80  +17      82.74     1.75    17.07     0.00    83.54   100.00    87.95P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        44   76  +24      79.28     1.84    24.79     0.00    10.17   100.00    37.20P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          43   73  +16      78.04     2.29    17.35     0.00     4.38    98.95    24.30P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          44   72   +8      75.25     1.88     8.74     0.00     0.00    90.82    13.39P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          43   71  +29      76.12     2.27    30.45     0.00     1.92    96.83    34.42P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          44   68  +15      70.97     1.74    15.34     0.00     0.00     8.05     1.68P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          44   68  +10      70.69     1.74     9.99     0.00     0.00     5.35     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          44   60   +5      62.72     1.77     4.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     44   60   +4      62.86     1.81     4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              44   60   -1      62.66     1.73    -1.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        44   57   -8      59.18     1.76    -8.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   44   56   -1      58.51     1.80    -1.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        44   55  -12      57.01     1.66   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         43   53   -9      57.16     2.23    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          44   52   -7      54.91     1.86    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        44   52  -12      54.41     1.72   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Derby            43   51   -9      54.95     2.23    -9.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Plymouth         44   50  -12      52.60     1.74   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.43R    0.00  
Nottm_Forest     44   49  -17      51.77     1.80   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.45R    0.00  
Barnsley         43   47  -14      50.17     2.13   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.65R    0.00  
Norwich          44   46   -9      48.36     1.82    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.62R    0.00  
Southampton      44   44  -21      46.22     1.79   -21.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.63R    0.59  
Charlton         43   35  -23      38.37     2.22   -24.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.41  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Brighton vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        44   92  +42      96.13     1.75    44.12   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     44   85  +23      88.48     1.84    24.17     0.00    63.75   100.00    73.51P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          43   81  +35      87.08     2.15    38.06     0.00    36.25   100.00    59.29P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         44   79  +11      82.38     1.83    11.89     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            44   78  +24      81.62     1.85    25.32     0.00     0.00   100.00    29.20P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         44   72  +13      75.20     1.78    13.62     0.00     0.00    37.96     7.63P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       42   70  +16      76.04     2.50    16.99     0.00     0.00    62.05    11.66P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         44   67   -5      70.13     1.80    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     44   66   -3      69.14     1.83    -2.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           44   61   +0      63.89     1.87     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   43   60  +17      65.59     2.25    19.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       44   60   -1      62.79     1.83    -0.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          44   58   -5      60.14     1.72    -6.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        44   57   +2      60.34     1.84     2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    44   55  -11      57.25     1.73   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       44   50   -9      51.88     1.75   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54R    0.00  
Swindon          44   49   -4      51.09     1.78    -5.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.13R    0.00  
Yeovil           43   49  -23      52.55     2.10   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.90R    0.00  
Carlisle         44   46  -15      48.64     1.86   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.35R    0.00  
Crewe            44   46  -19      47.59     1.62   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.19R    0.00  
Northampton      42   45   -1      50.31     2.53    -1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.47R    0.00  
Brighton         43   45  -17      47.93     2.13   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.50R    0.00  
Cheltenham       43   38  -35      40.63     2.06   -37.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R    4.20  
Hereford         43   33  -35      35.34     1.93   -37.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   95.80  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Barnet vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            43   79  +27      83.73     2.18    27.99    91.53    99.94   100.00    99.95P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               44   75  +14      77.81     1.78    14.12     0.69    53.07   100.00    64.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              43   74  +21      79.53     2.16    22.95     7.28    88.04   100.00    91.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 44   74  +19      77.49     1.77    20.08     0.49    56.76   100.00    69.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           44   71   +2      73.31     1.81     1.32     0.00     1.55    95.63    16.65P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           44   69  +18      72.30     1.78    18.84     0.00     0.47    92.29    30.13P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             44   69  +12      72.15     1.88    12.59     0.00     0.17    87.25    19.48P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           44   65  +16      67.87     1.80    16.17     0.00     0.00    12.06     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         44   63   +8      66.21     1.85     8.69     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            43   62   +2      65.42     2.12     1.11     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            42   61  +20      66.80     2.64    20.51     0.00     0.00    10.84     3.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             44   61   +6      63.46     1.82     5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         44   58   +3      60.94     1.73     3.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            42   54  +17      60.44     2.63    18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            44   50  -23      52.74     1.72   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               44   48  -16      51.21     1.86   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   44   47  -17      48.86     1.64   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         44   44  -18      45.67     1.60   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            44   44  -23      45.83     1.65   -24.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         44   43  -33      45.26     1.79   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          44   40   +3      43.06     1.79     3.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.97R    0.00  
Grimsby              44   40  -17      42.73     1.75   -17.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.25R    0.00  
Chester              44   36  -37      37.66     1.65   -38.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.77R    0.00  
Luton                43   25   -4      28.20     2.12    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Altrincham vs Grays_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.16     1.28    29.67    91.16   100.00    93.22P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.18     1.16    27.19     8.84    99.98    35.15P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   82  +22      84.25     1.16    23.45     0.00    94.47    20.65P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               44   79  +29      82.77     1.65    30.88     0.00    83.63    23.07P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              44   79  +24      82.34     1.86    24.88     0.00    67.94    16.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            44   78  +18      80.91     1.87    18.26     0.00    27.76     5.51P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        43   76  +20      80.49     2.21    20.53     0.00    26.23     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         44   70  +23      73.31     1.87    23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering            44   70  +11      73.16     1.68    11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              44   63  +15      66.81     1.72    16.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.92     1.22     9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.72     1.31    -9.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            44   56   -1      59.15     1.85    -0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           44   55  -15      56.54     1.57   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     43   54   -7      58.20     2.29    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.10     1.24   -10.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         44   52   -4      54.65     1.86    -4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               44   47  -16      49.03     1.76   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       44   46  -22      48.22     1.79   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.00  
York                 43   45   -6      50.03     2.26    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.38R    0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.78     1.59   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.24R    0.00  
Weymouth             43   43  -37      45.01     1.80   -40.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.65R    0.00  
Northwich            44   37  -22      38.98     1.67   -23.41     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                44   23  -60      24.45     1.47   -61.63     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4