Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 19 April 2009 at 21:05:32 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 19 April 2009, Man_City vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.18     3.19    41.43    68.80    94.94    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.46     2.83    46.35    28.88    87.40    99.85   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.95     3.00    40.50     2.31    17.55    96.88   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.63     2.96    28.39     0.01     0.11     3.34    97.13   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   54   +6      62.78     2.94     9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.93    99.23     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.91     3.18    14.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.94    96.54     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        33   45   +1      51.04     2.74    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   44   +5      51.06     2.83     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       33   44   +3      49.74     2.62     1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        33   41   +7      47.87     2.81     6.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.57     3.23    -4.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           33   39  -15      44.14     2.71   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Bolton          33   37  -11      43.73     2.96   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Portsmouth      32   37  -13      43.17     3.06   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.55R    0.00  
Sunderland      33   35  -12      40.44     2.82   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.14R    0.01  
Hull            33   34  -20      38.11     2.55   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.70R    0.16  
Blackburn       33   34  -20      39.71     2.71   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.34R    0.15  
Middlesbrough   33   31  -22      34.53     2.43   -26.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.81R    5.20  
Newcastle       33   30  -16      35.57     2.67   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.03R    2.73  
West_Brom       33   25  -33      29.24     2.60   -37.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   91.75  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 19 April 2009, Ipswich vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    44   86  +27      89.90     1.77    28.73    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       44   80  +17      82.74     1.74    17.07     0.01    67.06   100.00    75.89P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        43   76  +25      80.73     2.29    25.89     0.00    28.68   100.00    50.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          43   73  +16      78.02     2.29    17.34     0.00     3.08    99.34    22.87P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          43   71  +29      76.15     2.27    30.49     0.00     1.19    97.76    34.59P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          43   69   +7      73.54     2.31     7.61     0.00     0.00    69.19    10.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          44   68  +15      70.96     1.73    15.34     0.00     0.00    20.74     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          44   68  +10      70.65     1.74     9.95     0.00     0.00    12.97     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          44   60   +5      62.76     1.78     4.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     44   60   +4      62.86     1.82     4.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              44   60   -1      62.69     1.74    -1.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        44   57   -8      59.18     1.77    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   44   56   -1      58.53     1.79    -1.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        44   55  -12      56.99     1.65   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         43   53   -9      57.13     2.22    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          44   52   -7      54.92     1.86    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool        44   52  -12      54.40     1.72   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Derby            43   51   -9      54.93     2.23    -9.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Plymouth         44   50  -12      52.60     1.74   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.21R    0.00  
Nottm_Forest     44   49  -17      51.76     1.80   -16.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.39R    0.00  
Barnsley         43   47  -14      50.18     2.14   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.66R    0.00  
Norwich          44   46   -9      48.35     1.81    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.11R    0.00  
Southampton      44   44  -21      46.24     1.80   -21.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.44R    0.53  
Charlton         43   35  -23      38.36     2.22   -24.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.47  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Brighton vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        44   92  +42      96.11     1.75    44.11   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     44   85  +23      88.51     1.84    24.21     0.00    64.91   100.00    74.44P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          43   81  +35      87.05     2.16    38.04     0.00    35.09   100.00    58.99P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         44   79  +11      82.37     1.82    11.89     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            44   78  +24      81.60     1.86    25.29     0.00     0.00   100.00    28.24P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         44   72  +13      75.22     1.78    13.63     0.00     0.00    37.88     7.64P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       42   70  +16      76.06     2.52    17.02     0.00     0.00    62.12    11.82P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         44   67   -5      70.10     1.80    -4.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     44   66   -3      69.15     1.83    -2.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           44   61   +0      63.89     1.86     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   43   60  +17      65.63     2.25    19.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       44   60   -1      62.76     1.83    -0.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          44   58   -5      60.15     1.71    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        44   57   +2      60.34     1.84     2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    44   55  -11      57.26     1.73   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       44   50   -9      51.88     1.76   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45R    0.00  
Swindon          44   49   -4      51.07     1.78    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.20R    0.00  
Yeovil           43   49  -23      52.54     2.10   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.83R    0.00  
Carlisle         44   46  -15      48.62     1.86   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.67R    0.00  
Crewe            44   46  -19      47.59     1.63   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.87R    0.00  
Northampton      42   45   -1      50.30     2.55    -1.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.49R    0.00  
Brighton         43   45  -17      47.91     2.11   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.58R    0.00  
Cheltenham       43   38  -35      40.67     2.05   -37.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R    4.22  
Hereford         43   33  -35      35.39     1.95   -37.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   95.78  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Barnet vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            43   79  +27      83.73     2.18    27.98    91.66    99.93   100.00    99.95P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               44   75  +14      77.82     1.77    14.13     0.67    53.38   100.00    65.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              43   74  +21      79.52     2.15    22.94     7.21    87.92   100.00    91.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 44   74  +19      77.51     1.77    20.10     0.46    56.85   100.00    69.66P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           44   71   +2      73.28     1.79     1.27     0.00     1.28    95.57    15.96P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           44   69  +18      72.32     1.77    18.86     0.00     0.47    92.06    30.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             44   69  +12      72.16     1.87    12.62     0.00     0.16    87.76    19.83P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           44   65  +16      67.88     1.80    16.17     0.00     0.00    12.03     3.41P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         44   63   +8      66.22     1.86     8.70     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            43   62   +2      65.41     2.12     1.11     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            42   61  +20      66.78     2.64    20.48     0.00     0.00    10.80     3.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             44   61   +6      63.45     1.81     5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         44   58   +3      60.93     1.75     3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            42   54  +17      60.47     2.65    18.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            44   50  -23      52.77     1.73   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               44   48  -16      51.19     1.86   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   44   47  -17      48.85     1.64   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         44   44  -18      45.69     1.61   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            44   44  -23      45.85     1.66   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         44   43  -33      45.25     1.79   -33.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          44   40   +3      43.05     1.78     3.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.00  
Grimsby              44   40  -17      42.74     1.74   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.17R    0.00  
Chester              44   36  -37      37.63     1.63   -38.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.00R    0.00  
Luton                43   25   -4      28.18     2.11    -5.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Altrincham vs Grays_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.19     1.29    29.70    90.82   100.00    92.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.19     1.16    27.22     9.18    99.99    34.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   82  +22      84.26     1.15    23.48     0.00    94.56    20.78P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               44   79  +29      82.77     1.65    30.89     0.00    83.90    23.25P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              44   79  +24      82.31     1.87    24.84     0.00    67.53    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            44   78  +18      80.92     1.86    18.25     0.00    27.63     5.47P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        43   76  +20      80.50     2.22    20.55     0.00    26.39     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         44   70  +23      73.31     1.86    23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering            44   70  +11      73.17     1.68    11.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              44   63  +15      66.83     1.72    16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.92     1.22     9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.73     1.31    -9.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            44   56   -1      59.13     1.85    -0.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           44   55  -15      56.53     1.57   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     43   54   -7      58.19     2.28    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.12     1.25   -10.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         44   52   -4      54.68     1.86    -4.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               44   47  -16      49.04     1.75   -17.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       44   46  -22      48.20     1.79   -22.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.44R    0.00  
York                 43   45   -6      50.02     2.25    -4.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24R    0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.77     1.60   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.14R    0.00  
Weymouth             43   43  -37      45.00     1.80   -40.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.83R    0.00  
Northwich            44   37  -22      38.97     1.67   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                44   23  -60      24.45     1.46   -61.64     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4