Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 18 April 2009 at 21:05:02 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Aston_Villa vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.19     3.21    41.48    68.97    94.75    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.47     2.83    46.35    28.75    87.55    99.83   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.98     3.00    40.55     2.28    17.56    96.89   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.59     2.98    28.30     0.00     0.14     3.35    97.12   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   54   +6      62.76     2.92     9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.00    99.28     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.91     3.19    14.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88    96.74     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        33   45   +1      51.06     2.75    -0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   44   +5      51.02     2.84     5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   41   +2      48.64     2.96     1.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.58     3.25    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           33   39  -15      44.20     2.73   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Man_City        32   38   +5      47.18     3.06     6.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02R    0.00  
Bolton          33   37  -11      43.74     2.95   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88R    0.00  
Portsmouth      32   37  -13      43.17     3.05   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.06R    0.00  
Sunderland      33   35  -12      40.44     2.81   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.50R    0.03  
Hull            33   34  -20      38.08     2.56   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.59R    0.37  
Blackburn       33   34  -20      39.70     2.71   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.54R    0.27  
Middlesbrough   33   31  -22      34.50     2.41   -27.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.79R    7.74  
Newcastle       32   30  -15      36.48     2.98   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.46R    2.80  
West_Brom       32   25  -31      29.72     2.82   -36.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.94R   88.78  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Charlton vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    44   86  +27      89.91     1.76    28.76   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       44   80  +17      82.77     1.75    17.11     0.00    67.51   100.00    76.24P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        43   76  +25      80.74     2.28    25.91     0.00    28.29   100.00    50.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          43   73  +16      78.02     2.29    17.33     0.00     3.06    99.38    23.01P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          43   71  +29      76.08     2.26    30.40     0.00     1.13    97.67    34.03P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          43   69   +7      73.51     2.30     7.57     0.00     0.00    68.84    10.28P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          44   68  +15      70.96     1.73    15.33     0.00     0.00    20.91     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          44   68  +10      70.68     1.74     9.97     0.00     0.00    13.20     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     44   60   +4      62.86     1.81     4.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR              44   60   -1      62.66     1.74    -1.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          43   57   +4      61.57     2.22     4.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        44   57   -8      59.20     1.76    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   44   56   -1      58.51     1.79    -1.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        44   55  -12      57.00     1.65   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         43   53   -9      57.12     2.22    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          44   52   -7      54.91     1.86    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        44   52  -12      54.39     1.72   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Derby            43   51   -9      54.97     2.22    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Plymouth         44   50  -12      52.62     1.74   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.51R    0.00  
Nottm_Forest     44   49  -17      51.77     1.81   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.19R    0.00  
Barnsley         43   47  -14      50.16     2.15   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.16R    0.00  
Norwich          43   46   -8      49.30     2.21    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.09R    0.00  
Southampton      44   44  -21      46.26     1.79   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.54R    0.48  
Charlton         43   35  -23      38.35     2.20   -24.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.52  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Brighton vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        44   92  +42      96.12     1.75    44.12   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     44   85  +23      88.52     1.83    24.23     0.00    65.01   100.00    74.84P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          43   81  +35      87.05     2.16    38.03     0.00    34.99   100.00    58.70P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         44   79  +11      82.36     1.83    11.88     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.46P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            44   78  +24      81.62     1.85    25.32     0.00     0.00   100.00    28.58P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         44   72  +13      75.20     1.77    13.62     0.00     0.00    37.74     7.69P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       42   70  +16      76.05     2.53    17.01     0.00     0.00    62.26    11.72P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         44   67   -5      70.10     1.80    -4.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     44   66   -3      69.15     1.84    -2.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           44   61   +0      63.89     1.87     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   43   60  +17      65.63     2.24    19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       44   60   -1      62.76     1.83    -0.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          44   58   -5      60.15     1.72    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        44   57   +2      60.34     1.84     2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    44   55  -11      57.25     1.73   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       44   50   -9      51.87     1.74   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
Swindon          44   49   -4      51.04     1.77    -5.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.08R    0.00  
Yeovil           43   49  -23      52.56     2.10   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.79R    0.00  
Carlisle         44   46  -15      48.63     1.85   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.73R    0.00  
Crewe            44   46  -19      47.59     1.62   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.13R    0.00  
Northampton      42   45   -1      50.31     2.55    -1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.39R    0.00  
Brighton         43   45  -17      47.93     2.12   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.48R    0.00  
Cheltenham       43   38  -35      40.67     2.06   -37.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R    4.29  
Hereford         43   33  -35      35.37     1.95   -37.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   95.71  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Barnet vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            43   79  +27      83.71     2.17    27.95    91.51    99.93   100.00    99.96P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               44   75  +14      77.81     1.78    14.14     0.69    52.89   100.00    65.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              43   74  +21      79.53     2.15    22.96     7.36    88.03   100.00    92.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 44   74  +19      77.52     1.77    20.12     0.44    57.16   100.00    69.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           44   71   +2      73.29     1.79     1.28     0.00     1.35    95.51    16.60P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           44   69  +18      72.32     1.78    18.87     0.00     0.44    92.28    29.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             44   69  +12      72.16     1.87    12.62     0.00     0.19    87.60    20.09P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           44   65  +16      67.89     1.80    16.20     0.00     0.00    12.25     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         44   63   +8      66.20     1.86     8.68     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            43   62   +2      65.41     2.13     1.10     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            42   61  +20      66.78     2.64    20.47     0.00     0.00    10.62     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             44   61   +6      63.46     1.82     5.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         44   58   +3      60.93     1.74     3.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            42   54  +17      60.44     2.64    18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            44   50  -23      52.77     1.73   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               44   48  -16      51.22     1.86   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   44   47  -17      48.86     1.65   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         44   44  -18      45.69     1.61   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            44   44  -23      45.82     1.65   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         44   43  -33      45.25     1.80   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth          44   40   +3      43.06     1.79     3.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.92R    0.00  
Grimsby              44   40  -17      42.73     1.75   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24R    0.00  
Chester              44   36  -37      37.64     1.64   -38.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.84R    0.00  
Luton                43   25   -4      28.17     2.11    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 April 2009, Altrincham vs Grays_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.18     1.28    29.70    91.49   100.00    93.57P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   85  +26      87.17     1.17    27.17     8.51    99.98    34.55P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   82  +22      84.25     1.15    23.46     0.00    94.42    20.62P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               44   79  +29      82.78     1.65    30.90     0.00    84.10    23.51P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              44   79  +24      82.31     1.87    24.83     0.00    67.23    16.15P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            44   78  +18      80.92     1.86    18.26     0.00    27.66     5.53P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        43   76  +20      80.49     2.23    20.53     0.00    26.61     6.08P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         44   70  +23      73.30     1.86    23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering            44   70  +11      73.17     1.67    11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              44   63  +15      66.81     1.73    16.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    45   60   +9      61.91     1.23     9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   45   60  -10      61.74     1.31    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            44   56   -1      59.15     1.84    -0.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           44   55  -15      56.55     1.58   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     43   54   -7      58.23     2.27    -6.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            45   54  -10      55.10     1.25   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         44   52   -4      54.64     1.86    -4.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow               44   47  -16      49.04     1.76   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       44   46  -22      48.23     1.79   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.44R    0.00  
York                 43   45   -6      50.04     2.25    -4.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.00  
Woking               44   44  -17      45.79     1.60   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.96R    0.00  
Weymouth             43   43  -37      45.00     1.80   -40.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.93R    0.00  
Northwich            44   37  -22      38.96     1.67   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Lewes                44   23  -60      24.44     1.46   -61.64     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4