Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 17 April 2009 at 21:05:30 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 April 2009, Aston_Villa vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.16     3.21    41.43    68.75    94.84    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.45     2.84    46.30    28.99    87.59    99.87   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.96     3.00    40.52     2.26    17.46    96.50   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.70     2.98    28.53     0.00     0.12     3.69    95.48   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   53   +6      63.50     3.24     9.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70    98.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.97     3.19    14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83    95.39     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        32   44   +1      51.06     3.06    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.89     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   43   +5      51.78     3.13     5.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.27     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   41   +2      48.62     2.96     1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.59     3.24    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        32   38   +5      47.17     3.09     6.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01R    0.00  
Bolton          32   37  -10      45.12     3.29   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.49R    0.00  
Stoke           32   36  -16      42.70     3.09   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.78R    0.00  
Portsmouth      31   34  -14      41.55     3.37   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.49R    0.04  
Hull            32   34  -19      39.18     2.90   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.61R    0.18  
Blackburn       32   34  -19      40.94     3.05   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.25R    0.12  
Sunderland      32   32  -13      39.10     3.15   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.87R    0.54  
Newcastle       32   30  -15      36.48     2.97   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.42R    2.54  
Middlesbrough   32   30  -22      34.46     2.71   -27.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.07R    8.70  
West_Brom       32   25  -31      29.66     2.79   -37.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.01R   87.88  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Barnsley vs Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    43   83  +26      88.90     2.17    28.66    98.71    99.88   100.00    99.92P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       43   77  +16      81.28     2.20    16.31     0.28    36.58   100.00    51.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        43   76  +25      80.79     2.29    25.99     0.64    35.29   100.00    54.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          42   73  +22      79.77     2.66    23.86     0.37    21.50    99.91    42.10P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          42   70  +29      77.43     2.57    31.85     0.00     6.73    99.26    37.22P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          43   69   +7      73.48     2.30     7.53     0.00     0.01    81.19    11.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          43   65  +14      69.65     2.19    14.80     0.00     0.00    13.36     2.61P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          43   65   +4      68.84     2.19     3.70     0.00     0.00     5.99     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     43   60   +5      63.93     2.22     4.71     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              43   60   +0      63.54     2.11    -0.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          43   57   +4      61.47     2.19     4.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        43   54  -10      57.76     2.19   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   43   53   -2      57.24     2.24    -1.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         42   53   -8      58.43     2.60    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          43   52   -6      56.14     2.28    -5.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster        43   52  -15      54.91     2.03   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Derby            42   51   -8      55.98     2.59    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Blackpool        43   51  -12      54.68     2.18   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52R    0.00  
Plymouth         43   50   -9      54.38     2.16    -8.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Norwich          43   46   -8      49.28     2.19    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.43R    0.02  
Barnsley         42   46  -14      49.63     2.37   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.15R    0.03  
Nottm_Forest     43   46  -18      50.20     2.25   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.74R    0.05  
Southampton      43   44  -19      47.31     2.20   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.26R    0.67  
Charlton         42   34  -23      38.73     2.57   -24.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.23  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Cheltenham vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        43   89  +40      94.85     2.22    42.63    99.14    99.97   100.00    99.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     43   82  +22      87.39     2.26    23.96     0.55    63.99   100.00    73.23P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         43   79  +13      83.54     2.25    13.58     0.00     4.70    99.94    24.54P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          42   78  +34      85.45     2.59    37.06     0.31    31.06    99.99    54.59P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            43   75  +22      80.26     2.28    23.69     0.00     0.19    95.40    25.21P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         43   72  +15      76.31     2.19    15.26     0.00     0.00    39.51     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       41   70  +17      77.47     2.88    18.11     0.00     0.09    64.89    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         43   67   -3      71.08     2.17    -2.99     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     43   63   -4      67.28     2.25    -3.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           43   61   +2      65.43     2.31     2.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          43   58   -4      61.73     2.20    -4.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   42   57  +15      64.20     2.63    17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        43   57   +3      61.28     2.22     3.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       43   57   -3      61.35     2.27    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    43   55   -9      58.74     2.17    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           42   49  -22      53.86     2.49   -22.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.00  
Swindon          43   48   -4      51.39     2.23    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.55R    0.00  
Hartlepool       43   47  -10      50.31     2.20   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.07R    0.00  
Crewe            43   46  -18      49.55     2.13   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.11R    0.00  
Carlisle         43   45  -15      49.07     2.30   -15.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.88R    0.00  
Northampton      41   42   -3      48.46     2.87    -3.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.43R    0.00  
Brighton         42   42  -19      46.10     2.49   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.92R    0.01  
Cheltenham       42   35  -36      38.44     2.36   -39.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   33.45  
Hereford         42   33  -33      36.57     2.37   -35.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   66.54  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            42   76  +24      82.85     2.50    26.00    87.42    99.67   100.00    99.79P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               43   72  +13      75.98     2.21    12.86     0.73    35.32    99.99    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              42   71  +18      78.63     2.48    21.02    10.22    85.48   100.00    90.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 43   71  +16      76.74     2.13    18.45     1.58    62.26    99.96    73.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             43   69  +14      73.80     2.32    15.01     0.05    14.58    96.03    34.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           43   68   +1      71.21     2.20    -0.44     0.00     1.57    74.75    13.13P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           43   66  +16      70.45     2.22    16.52     0.00     1.11    75.07    22.93P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         43   63   +9      67.95     2.31    10.26     0.00     0.00    28.54     6.67P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           43   62  +15      65.91     2.20    14.77     0.00     0.00     8.46     2.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             43   61   +9      64.46     2.21     7.98     0.00     0.00     2.52     0.66P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            42   59   +1      64.30     2.51     0.83     0.00     0.00     1.94     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            41   58  +17      65.45     2.97    17.94     0.00     0.00    11.60     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         43   58   +4      62.44     2.23     4.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            41   54  +18      62.23     2.95    19.95     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            43   50  -20      53.36     2.01   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   43   47  -14      49.53     1.95   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               43   47  -16      51.65     2.32   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         43   44  -17      46.61     2.00   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            43   44  -20      47.01     2.12   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         43   43  -30      45.88     2.08   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth          43   37   +1      41.72     2.24     1.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.75R    0.00  
Grimsby              43   37  -20      41.32     2.21   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.74R    0.00  
Chester              43   36  -35      38.80     2.10   -37.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.44R    0.10  
Luton                42   24   -4      28.41     2.53    -5.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.90  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 17 April 2009, Burton_Albion vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        45   88  +30      89.20     1.29    29.72    93.29   100.00    94.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        44   82  +25      85.87     1.74    26.65     6.71    98.55    33.04P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   82  +22      84.26     1.15    23.48     0.00    94.16    20.48P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               43   78  +29      83.46     2.12    31.35     0.00    81.86    23.35P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              43   78  +24      82.56     2.30    24.65     0.00    62.22    14.88P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            43   77  +18      81.44     2.32    18.48     0.00    36.88     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        42   75  +20      80.52     2.59    20.04     0.00    26.33     6.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         43   69  +23      74.05     2.30    24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering            43   67  +10      71.64     2.13    10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              43   63  +16      68.06     2.13    17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    44   60  +13      63.48     1.81    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   44   60   -9      62.91     1.82    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            43   55   -1      59.57     2.24    -0.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            44   54   -9      56.16     1.75    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           43   52  -17      55.17     2.05   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     42   51   -9      56.68     2.67    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         43   49   -8      52.80     2.28    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Barrow               43   46  -16      49.00     2.16   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.35R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       43   46  -20      49.40     2.22   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.81R    0.00  
Woking               43   43  -17      45.94     2.01   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.50R    0.00  
Weymouth             42   43  -35      46.26     2.25   -39.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.39R    0.00  
York                 42   42   -7      48.58     2.66    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.97R    0.00  
Northwich            43   34  -25      38.13     2.06   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R    0.00  
Lewes                43   23  -57      25.11     1.82   -59.78     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4