Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 15 April 2009 at 21:05:02 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 April 2009, Aston_Villa vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.18     3.20    41.43    69.17    94.85    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.44     2.84    46.30    28.64    87.53    99.83   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.94     3.00    40.49     2.19    17.50    96.61    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.69     2.97    28.49     0.01     0.12     3.63    95.50   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   53   +6      63.54     3.24     9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.72    98.66     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.92     3.18    14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80    95.16     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        32   44   +1      51.05     3.06    -0.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   43   +5      51.82     3.15     6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.40     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   41   +2      48.63     2.98     1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.56     3.22    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        32   38   +5      47.12     3.09     6.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01R    0.00  
Bolton          32   37  -10      45.09     3.30   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.51R    0.00  
Stoke           32   36  -16      42.66     3.09   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.85R    0.00  
Portsmouth      31   34  -14      41.59     3.38   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.42R    0.03  
Hull            32   34  -19      39.23     2.92   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.30R    0.20  
Blackburn       32   34  -19      40.95     3.08   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.34R    0.14  
Sunderland      32   32  -13      39.10     3.17   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.81R    0.55  
Newcastle       32   30  -15      36.44     2.97   -18.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.93R    2.67  
Middlesbrough   32   30  -22      34.45     2.72   -27.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.85R    9.03  
West_Brom       32   25  -31      29.73     2.79   -36.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.97R   87.38  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Barnsley vs Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    43   83  +26      88.90     2.18    28.67    98.67    99.86   100.00    99.90P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       43   77  +16      81.30     2.21    16.32     0.35    36.95   100.00    52.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        43   76  +25      80.79     2.29    25.97     0.66    34.95   100.00    53.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          42   73  +22      79.77     2.64    23.87     0.32    21.45    99.91    41.98P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          42   70  +29      77.44     2.57    31.87     0.00     6.77    99.30    37.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          43   69   +7      73.49     2.30     7.57     0.00     0.01    80.96    11.40P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          43   65  +14      69.65     2.19    14.80     0.00     0.00    13.63     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          43   65   +4      68.83     2.19     3.69     0.00     0.00     5.97     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     43   60   +5      63.93     2.20     4.70     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              43   60   +0      63.55     2.12    -0.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          43   57   +4      61.44     2.20     4.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        43   54  -10      57.74     2.19   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   43   53   -2      57.27     2.25    -1.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry         42   53   -8      58.49     2.61    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          43   52   -6      56.11     2.28    -5.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster        43   52  -15      54.91     2.02   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Derby            42   51   -8      55.96     2.58    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Blackpool        43   51  -12      54.69     2.17   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56R    0.00  
Plymouth         43   50   -9      54.38     2.17    -8.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Norwich          43   46   -8      49.32     2.20    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.77R    0.02  
Barnsley         42   46  -14      49.60     2.37   -16.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.46R    0.05  
Nottm_Forest     43   46  -18      50.17     2.24   -17.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.33R    0.04  
Southampton      43   44  -19      47.32     2.22   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.01R    0.65  
Charlton         42   34  -23      38.67     2.57   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.23  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Cheltenham vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        43   89  +40      94.86     2.21    42.64    99.15    99.94   100.00    99.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     43   82  +22      87.38     2.27    23.97     0.54    63.84   100.00    73.26P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         43   79  +13      83.55     2.25    13.58     0.00     4.85    99.95    24.29P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          42   78  +34      85.44     2.59    37.05     0.30    31.06    99.98    55.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            43   75  +22      80.23     2.28    23.65     0.00     0.20    95.31    24.85P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         43   72  +15      76.31     2.18    15.25     0.00     0.00    39.29     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       41   70  +17      77.46     2.89    18.09     0.00     0.11    65.18    13.37P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         43   67   -3      71.07     2.17    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     43   63   -4      67.27     2.24    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           43   61   +2      65.41     2.31     2.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          43   58   -4      61.72     2.19    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   42   57  +15      64.24     2.62    17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        43   57   +3      61.30     2.23     3.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       43   57   -3      61.33     2.27    -2.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    43   55   -9      58.75     2.17    -9.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           42   49  -22      53.85     2.50   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.14R    0.00  
Swindon          43   48   -4      51.35     2.22    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.45R    0.00  
Hartlepool       43   47  -10      50.32     2.19   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.03R    0.00  
Crewe            43   46  -18      49.52     2.12   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.56R    0.00  
Carlisle         43   45  -15      49.07     2.30   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.04R    0.00  
Northampton      41   42   -3      48.49     2.89    -3.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.01R    0.00  
Brighton         42   42  -19      46.10     2.49   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.81R    0.00  
Cheltenham       42   35  -36      38.46     2.39   -39.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   33.80  
Hereford         42   33  -33      36.60     2.36   -35.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   66.20  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            42   76  +24      82.83     2.52    25.98    87.47    99.68   100.00    99.78P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               43   72  +13      75.98     2.21    12.85     0.80    35.40    99.98    51.52P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              42   71  +18      78.58     2.49    20.95     9.96    85.13   100.00    89.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 43   71  +16      76.76     2.13    18.48     1.71    62.71    99.97    73.43P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             43   69  +14      73.78     2.32    15.01     0.06    14.46    96.02    34.68P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           43   68   +1      71.22     2.18    -0.43     0.00     1.44    75.00    13.72P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           43   66  +16      70.44     2.23    16.51     0.00     1.16    74.87    23.02P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         43   63   +9      67.99     2.30    10.30     0.00     0.00    28.73     6.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           43   62  +15      65.90     2.19    14.75     0.00     0.00     8.31     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             43   61   +9      64.44     2.22     7.95     0.00     0.00     2.51     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            42   59   +1      64.26     2.52     0.76     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            41   58  +17      65.46     2.98    17.94     0.00     0.01    11.63     3.56P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         43   58   +4      62.47     2.20     4.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            41   54  +18      62.27     2.96    20.02     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            43   50  -20      53.36     2.01   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   43   47  -14      49.50     1.93   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               43   47  -16      51.65     2.33   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         43   44  -17      46.64     2.02   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            43   44  -20      46.99     2.12   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         43   43  -30      45.88     2.08   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth          43   37   +1      41.70     2.24     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.07R    0.00  
Grimsby              43   37  -20      41.34     2.22   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.69R    0.00  
Chester              43   36  -35      38.81     2.11   -37.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.18R    0.10  
Luton                42   24   -4      28.45     2.53    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.90  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 15 April 2009, Kettering vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        44   88  +31      90.93     1.86    31.28    97.63   100.00    98.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        44   82  +25      85.86     1.74    26.63     2.37    99.29    30.44P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           44   79  +21      82.29     1.72    21.92     0.00    71.99    15.31P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              43   78  +24      82.60     2.30    24.68     0.00    72.37    17.56P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            43   77  +18      81.42     2.31    18.45     0.00    45.96     9.01P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               42   75  +26      82.46     2.48    29.20     0.00    74.56    21.20P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        42   75  +20      80.56     2.57    20.07     0.00    35.83     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         43   69  +23      74.05     2.28    24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kettering            43   67  +10      71.61     2.13    10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              43   63  +16      68.04     2.14    17.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    44   60  +13      63.45     1.81    13.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   44   60   -9      62.89     1.82    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            43   55   -1      59.59     2.25    -0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            44   54   -9      56.16     1.75    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           43   52  -17      55.17     2.05   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     41   51   -6      57.49     2.92    -6.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         43   49   -8      52.80     2.27    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Barrow               43   46  -16      48.98     2.15   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.37R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       43   46  -20      49.39     2.21   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.96R    0.00  
Woking               43   43  -17      45.97     2.03   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.50R    0.00  
Weymouth             42   43  -35      46.27     2.25   -39.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.36R    0.00  
York                 42   42   -7      48.61     2.66    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.85R    0.00  
Northwich            43   34  -25      38.07     2.07   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R    0.00  
Lewes                43   23  -57      25.10     1.82   -59.81     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4