Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 14 April 2009 at 21:05:03 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 April 2009, Aston_Villa vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.16     3.21    41.40    69.10    94.83    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.40     2.86    46.20    28.55    87.10    99.82   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.94     3.02    40.48     2.35    17.95    96.44    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.71     2.96    28.56     0.00     0.13     3.79    95.42   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   53   +6      63.55     3.25     9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.79    98.62     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.94     3.19    14.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80    95.38     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        32   44   +1      51.00     3.06    -0.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   43   +5      51.77     3.16     5.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.36     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   41   +2      48.61     2.98     1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.53     3.23    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        32   38   +5      47.15     3.07     6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01R    0.00  
Bolton          32   37  -10      45.10     3.29   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.51R    0.00  
Stoke           32   36  -16      42.71     3.10   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.86R    0.00  
Portsmouth      31   34  -14      41.55     3.38   -17.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.75R    0.04  
Hull            32   34  -19      39.22     2.91   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.43R    0.25  
Blackburn       32   34  -19      40.99     3.07   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.18R    0.14  
Sunderland      32   32  -13      39.09     3.16   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.84R    0.58  
Newcastle       32   30  -15      36.50     2.96   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.45R    2.59  
Middlesbrough   32   30  -22      34.49     2.73   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.92R    8.92  
West_Brom       32   25  -31      29.71     2.80   -36.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.04R   87.48  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Barnsley vs Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    43   83  +26      88.91     2.18    28.68    98.64    99.88   100.00    99.91P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       43   77  +16      81.30     2.20    16.35     0.34    36.84   100.00    52.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        43   76  +25      80.77     2.30    25.95     0.63    34.73   100.00    53.72P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          42   73  +22      79.79     2.63    23.89     0.39    21.74    99.92    42.07P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          42   70  +29      77.40     2.56    31.80     0.00     6.80    99.40    37.38P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          43   69   +7      73.50     2.31     7.56     0.00     0.01    81.10    11.10P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          43   65  +14      69.67     2.18    14.82     0.00     0.00    13.48     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          43   65   +4      68.82     2.17     3.67     0.00     0.00     5.85     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     43   60   +5      63.90     2.21     4.66     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              43   60   +0      63.54     2.11    -0.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          43   57   +4      61.45     2.20     4.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        43   54  -10      57.77     2.19   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   43   53   -2      57.26     2.25    -1.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Coventry         42   53   -8      58.43     2.61    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          43   52   -6      56.12     2.29    -5.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster        43   52  -15      54.91     2.04   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Derby            42   51   -8      56.00     2.58    -8.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Blackpool        43   51  -12      54.69     2.18   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Plymouth         43   50   -9      54.36     2.18    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75R    0.00  
Norwich          43   46   -8      49.30     2.19    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.39R    0.02  
Barnsley         42   46  -14      49.64     2.37   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.77R    0.05  
Nottm_Forest     43   46  -18      50.19     2.24   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.91R    0.04  
Southampton      43   44  -19      47.31     2.20   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.32R    0.62  
Charlton         42   34  -23      38.68     2.58   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.27  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Cheltenham vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        43   89  +40      94.87     2.21    42.64    99.21    99.95   100.00    99.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     43   82  +22      87.37     2.27    23.93     0.48    63.76   100.00    73.36P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         43   79  +13      83.55     2.25    13.61     0.00     4.83    99.95    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          42   78  +34      85.44     2.59    37.04     0.30    31.14    99.98    55.28P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            43   75  +22      80.22     2.27    23.65     0.00     0.17    95.12    25.18P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         43   72  +15      76.33     2.19    15.28     0.00     0.00    39.69     8.72P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       41   70  +17      77.48     2.88    18.12     0.00     0.14    64.96    13.46P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         43   67   -3      71.09     2.17    -2.96     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     43   63   -4      67.30     2.25    -3.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           43   61   +2      65.42     2.32     2.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          43   58   -4      61.72     2.20    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   42   57  +15      64.16     2.62    17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stockport        43   57   +3      61.29     2.23     3.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       43   57   -3      61.33     2.26    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    43   55   -9      58.74     2.17    -9.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil           42   49  -22      53.85     2.49   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.04R    0.00  
Swindon          43   48   -4      51.39     2.23    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.48R    0.00  
Hartlepool       43   47  -10      50.32     2.20   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.68R    0.00  
Crewe            43   46  -18      49.54     2.12   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.71R    0.00  
Carlisle         43   45  -15      49.08     2.31   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.50R    0.00  
Northampton      41   42   -3      48.44     2.87    -3.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.81R    0.00  
Brighton         42   42  -19      46.10     2.50   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.82R    0.00  
Cheltenham       42   35  -36      38.43     2.38   -39.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   34.13  
Hereford         42   33  -33      36.60     2.38   -35.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   65.87  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Chester; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            42   76  +24      82.84     2.50    26.00    87.48    99.66   100.00    99.76P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               43   72  +13      76.00     2.20    12.88     0.84    35.75    99.98    52.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              42   71  +18      78.54     2.51    20.90     9.95    84.73    99.99    89.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 43   71  +16      76.74     2.14    18.46     1.66    62.44    99.96    73.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             43   69  +14      73.82     2.31    15.05     0.05    14.63    96.18    35.21P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           43   68   +1      71.20     2.19    -0.47     0.00     1.56    74.90    13.24P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           43   66  +16      70.42     2.23    16.49     0.00     1.22    74.97    23.18P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         43   63   +9      67.99     2.30    10.30     0.00     0.00    28.61     6.64P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           43   62  +15      65.91     2.20    14.76     0.00     0.00     8.53     2.42P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             43   61   +9      64.48     2.23     8.01     0.00     0.00     2.58     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            42   59   +1      64.26     2.50     0.77     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            41   58  +17      65.41     2.98    17.87     0.00     0.00    11.29     3.33P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         43   58   +4      62.46     2.21     4.61     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            41   54  +18      62.25     2.96    19.98     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            43   50  -20      53.36     2.02   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   43   47  -14      49.52     1.95   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               43   47  -16      51.65     2.33   -15.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         43   44  -17      46.63     2.01   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            43   44  -20      47.02     2.11   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         43   43  -30      45.87     2.08   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth          43   37   +1      41.71     2.23     1.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.89R    0.00  
Grimsby              43   37  -20      41.34     2.21   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.63R    0.00  
Chester              43   36  -35      38.79     2.09   -37.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.43R    0.08  
Luton                42   24   -4      28.45     2.53    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 April 2009, Barrow vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        44   88  +31      90.93     1.87    31.28    97.55   100.00    98.12P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        44   82  +25      85.89     1.74    26.69     2.45    99.36    30.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           44   79  +21      82.29     1.72    21.91     0.00    71.89    14.99P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              43   78  +24      82.58     2.31    24.65     0.00    72.10    17.37P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            43   77  +18      81.43     2.31    18.46     0.00    46.52     9.13P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               42   75  +26      82.43     2.48    29.17     0.00    73.87    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        42   75  +20      80.56     2.58    20.09     0.00    35.75     8.47P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         42   68  +23      74.30     2.64    24.26     0.00     0.51     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            42   66  +10      72.08     2.52    10.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              43   63  +16      68.04     2.14    17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    44   60  +13      63.47     1.80    13.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   44   60   -9      62.90     1.83    -8.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            43   55   -1      59.60     2.24    -0.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            44   54   -9      56.15     1.75    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           43   52  -17      55.14     2.05   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     41   51   -6      57.48     2.90    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green         43   49   -8      52.82     2.28    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Barrow               43   46  -16      48.99     2.15   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.17R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       43   46  -20      49.41     2.21   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.78R    0.00  
Woking               43   43  -17      45.91     2.01   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.25R    0.00  
Weymouth             42   43  -35      46.26     2.24   -39.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.04R    0.00  
York                 42   42   -7      48.59     2.65    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.79R    0.00  
Northwich            43   34  -25      38.09     2.07   -25.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R    0.00  
Lewes                43   23  -57      25.09     1.82   -59.82     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4