Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 12 April 2009 at 21:04:55 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 April 2009, Aston_Villa vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         31   71  +33      86.21     3.18    41.52    69.13    94.91    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       32   70  +38      83.47     2.83    46.35    28.70    87.75    99.83   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         32   67  +35      78.95     3.01    40.52     2.16    17.21    96.66   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         32   61  +26      70.69     2.96    28.47     0.01     0.12     3.55    95.43   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   53   +6      63.52     3.26     9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.77    98.61     0.00     0.00  
Everton         32   52  +13      60.94     3.19    14.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81    95.24     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        32   44   +1      51.01     3.04    -0.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   43   +5      51.79     3.16     5.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.43     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       32   41   +2      48.61     2.97     1.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   41   -5      49.49     3.25    -4.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        32   38   +5      47.10     3.08     6.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01R    0.00  
Bolton          32   37  -10      45.15     3.31   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.49R    0.00  
Stoke           32   36  -16      42.74     3.09   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.89R    0.01  
Portsmouth      31   34  -14      41.59     3.38   -17.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.38R    0.06  
Hull            32   34  -19      39.17     2.90   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.63R    0.23  
Blackburn       32   34  -19      40.97     3.05   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.09R    0.15  
Sunderland      32   32  -13      39.09     3.17   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.80R    0.57  
Newcastle       32   30  -15      36.46     2.96   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.93R    2.57  
Middlesbrough   32   30  -22      34.48     2.72   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.85R    8.89  
West_Brom       32   25  -31      29.72     2.80   -36.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R   87.53  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 April 2009, Burnley vs QPR; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    42   80  +25      87.48     2.59    27.94    85.93    96.77   100.00    97.68P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       42   76  +16      82.20     2.54    17.04     4.87    39.82   100.00    54.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        42   75  +25      82.03     2.61    27.33     7.89    45.42   100.00    61.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          41   70  +20      78.58     2.98    22.54     0.77     8.61    99.46    30.70P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          41   69  +29      78.21     2.90    32.39     0.55     9.15    99.68    40.90P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          42   69   +9      74.46     2.62     8.91     0.00     0.23    92.57    13.25P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          42   62  +12      68.12     2.57    12.93     0.00     0.00     5.57     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          42   62   +2      67.18     2.54     1.68     0.00     0.00     2.08     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     42   59   +5      64.51     2.60     5.03     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              42   57   -1      62.14     2.48    -1.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          42   56   +4      61.58     2.57     4.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        42   54   -9      58.86     2.52    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   42   53   -1      58.70     2.62    -0.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          42   52   -4      57.41     2.69    -4.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Coventry         41   52   -8      59.33     2.97    -7.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster        42   52  -13      56.32     2.45   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Derby            41   51   -7      57.06     2.94    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        42   50  -12      54.62     2.50   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.93R    0.00  
Plymouth         42   49   -9      54.10     2.45    -9.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05R    0.00  
Barnsley         41   46  -12      50.86     2.72   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.86R    0.01  
Nottm_Forest     42   45  -18      49.73     2.50   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.39R    0.14  
Norwich          42   43  -10      47.79     2.60   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.20R    0.73  
Southampton      42   41  -20      45.56     2.59   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.61R    4.76  
Charlton         41   33  -23      38.69     2.91   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   94.35  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 April 2009, Brighton vs Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        42   86  +39      93.72     2.60    42.37    92.49    99.49   100.00    99.66P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     42   82  +24      88.69     2.63    25.90     6.94    81.03   100.00    86.02P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         42   76  +11      81.86     2.63    11.52     0.02     2.45    99.09    20.24P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          41   75  +33      84.31     2.93    36.80     0.55    15.73    99.86    45.30P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            42   75  +23      81.10     2.60    23.91     0.01     1.27    98.09    27.23P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         42   69  +14      75.51     2.51    15.48     0.00     0.00    45.61    10.08P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       40   67  +16      75.97     3.24    17.28     0.00     0.03    56.94    11.43P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         42   64   -4      69.16     2.53    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           42   60   +2      66.48     2.68     3.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     42   60   -5      66.06     2.64    -4.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   41   57  +16      65.14     2.93    17.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        42   57   +4      63.11     2.59     4.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester       42   57   -2      63.27     2.63    -0.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall          42   55   -5      59.66     2.53    -6.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    42   52  -10      56.74     2.53   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Yeovil           41   49  -21      55.23     2.86   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.00R    0.00  
Swindon          42   48   -3      53.10     2.62    -3.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool       42   47   -9      51.54     2.60   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.78R    0.00  
Carlisle         42   45  -14      50.18     2.65   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.65R    0.00  
Crewe            42   45  -18      49.34     2.45   -19.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.44R    0.00  
Northampton      40   42   -2      50.17     3.20    -2.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.93R    0.00  
Brighton         41   39  -20      43.84     2.79   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.18R    0.26  
Hereford         41   33  -32      37.07     2.57   -36.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   44.71  
Cheltenham       41   32  -37      36.92     2.76   -40.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   55.02  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 April 2009, Barnet vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            41   73  +23      81.16     2.85    24.97    59.94    97.54   100.00    98.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              41   71  +19      80.01     2.84    22.11    33.90    92.50   100.00    94.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 42   70  +16      76.84     2.49    18.10     4.77    66.49    99.78    75.47P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               42   69  +12      74.27     2.56    11.79     0.88    18.50    97.30    36.90P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             42   68  +14      73.81     2.65    14.51     0.44    17.89    93.65    35.79P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           42   65  +16      71.09     2.58    16.91     0.07     5.61    77.03    26.87P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           42   65   +0      69.53     2.56    -1.53     0.00     0.98    44.32     8.14P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         42   62   +9      68.28     2.68    10.17     0.00     0.16    33.36     7.69P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           42   61  +15      66.68     2.60    15.32     0.00     0.03    17.24     5.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             42   60   +9      65.15     2.61     8.43     0.00     0.00     6.54     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            40   58  +18      66.85     3.28    18.96     0.00     0.30    25.95     7.90P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         42   57   +4      62.50     2.56     4.14     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            41   56   +0      62.72     2.87    -0.12     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            40   53  +18      62.98     3.27    20.51     0.00     0.00     3.52     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            42   49  -20      54.02     2.45   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   42   47  -13      51.52     2.37   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               42   46  -16      51.83     2.71   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         42   44  -15      48.37     2.44   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            42   43  -20      46.99     2.44   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         42   43  -29      47.16     2.47   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth          42   37   +2      43.05     2.57     2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.45R    0.01  
Grimsby              42   34  -22      39.27     2.56   -22.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.45R    0.34  
Chester              42   33  -36      36.53     2.39   -38.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.35R    2.52  
Luton                41   23   -4      28.88     2.90    -5.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R   97.13  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 April 2009, Altrincham vs Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        43   88  +32      92.23     2.29    32.17    98.08   100.00    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        43   79  +24      84.17     2.14    25.62     0.39    96.34    27.39P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              42   77  +24      83.28     2.68    25.14     0.93    87.04    21.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           43   76  +19      80.94     2.16    20.30     0.00    59.82    12.00P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               41   74  +26      83.20     2.83    29.82     0.60    86.28    24.94P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            42   74  +16      79.29     2.65    15.64     0.00    29.11     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        41   72  +19      78.95     2.93    19.11     0.00    29.92     7.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         41   68  +25      76.18     2.99    27.05     0.00    10.69     2.83P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            41   66  +11      73.45     2.82    11.98     0.00     0.80     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              42   63  +17      70.26     2.46    19.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    43   59  +13      63.38     2.20    13.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   43   57  -10      61.66     2.26    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            42   55   +1      61.27     2.64     2.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            43   53   -9      56.25     2.17   -10.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           42   49  -18      52.70     2.32   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     40   48   -7      56.74     3.16    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green         42   48   -8      53.44     2.70    -8.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       42   46  -19      50.38     2.57   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.76R    0.00  
Barrow               42   45  -16      49.36     2.54   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.82R    0.00  
Woking               42   43  -15      47.05     2.40   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.12R    0.00  
Weymouth             41   42  -35      46.40     2.64   -39.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.42R    0.00  
York                 41   41   -7      48.97     3.00    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.61R    0.00  
Northwich            42   31  -27      36.23     2.45   -27.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R    0.18  
Lewes                42   23  -56      25.60     2.07   -60.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.82  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4