Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 4 April 2009 at 21:04:48 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 April 2009, Arsenal vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       31   67  +34      82.99     3.05    44.48    38.83    85.43    99.81   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.35     3.70    41.39    56.12    88.15    99.76    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         31   64  +34      78.63     3.18    41.44     5.03    26.26    97.69    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         31   58  +23      68.90     3.27    25.28     0.01     0.16     2.62    80.84    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.79     3.75     9.89     0.00     0.00     0.12    17.57    98.19     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.31     3.77     9.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63    79.97     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        31   44   +2      52.32     3.36     0.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.06     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.64     3.79     3.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.44     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          31   40   +3      49.63     3.42     3.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        31   38   +7      49.09     3.38     9.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham       31   38   +1      47.11     3.30     0.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.06R    0.00  
Bolton          31   37   -9      45.06     3.39   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.81R    0.00  
Stoke           31   35  -16      43.19     3.42   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.62R    0.00  
Blackburn       31   34  -15      41.22     3.16   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.15R    0.07  
Hull            31   34  -17      40.85     3.28   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.65R    0.08  
Portsmouth      30   33  -14      42.53     3.66   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.54R    0.07  
Sunderland      31   32  -12      39.75     3.36   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.09R    0.21  
Newcastle       31   29  -15      36.81     3.31   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.68R    2.06  
Middlesbrough   31   27  -24      32.55     3.00   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.39R   18.55  
West_Brom       31   24  -31      29.20     3.02   -38.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.03R   78.96  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 April 2009, Barnsley vs Nottm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.98     3.15    28.29    87.04    96.82   100.00    97.66P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.36     3.23    15.64     6.74    40.99    99.89    55.49P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          40   69  +30      80.08     3.19    34.15     3.81    35.67    99.83    59.10P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        40   69  +23      79.12     3.17    25.84     1.91    19.96    99.41    43.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          41   66   +8      73.10     2.96     8.29     0.00     0.30    75.39    11.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.29     3.88    18.42     0.50     6.25    91.10    26.55P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          41   62   +3      69.25     2.90     3.65     0.00     0.00    17.65     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     41   59   +6      66.10     2.94     6.38     0.00     0.00     5.21     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.11     3.20    12.34     0.00     0.00    10.04     2.07P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              41   57   +0      63.26     2.80    -0.76     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          41   56   +6      63.65     2.89     7.19     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        41   54   -8      60.54     2.88    -8.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   40   52   +1      60.94     3.31     2.09     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         39   51   -4      61.01     3.54    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford          40   50   -4      59.22     3.31    -2.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster        41   49  -15      53.93     2.68   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.31R    0.00  
Derby            39   48   -5      56.02     3.49    -7.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41R    0.00  
Blackpool        41   47  -13      52.40     2.78   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.29R    0.01  
Plymouth         41   46  -13      52.29     2.76   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.76R    0.00  
Barnsley         39   45  -11      51.34     3.22   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.59R    0.04  
Norwich          41   43   -9      48.52     2.89   -11.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.36R    0.74  
Nottm_Forest     41   42  -19      47.76     2.82   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.48R    1.47  
Southampton      40   40  -17      45.95     3.08   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.19R    5.72  
Charlton         40   32  -23      38.71     3.17   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.57R   92.03  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 April 2009, Cheltenham vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        41   83  +37      92.73     2.90    41.30    75.73    97.94   100.00    98.67P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     41   81  +24      90.28     2.84    28.14    23.30    89.44   100.00    92.17P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         41   76  +13      83.75     2.95    14.22     0.45     6.13    99.86    25.75P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          40   72  +31      82.73     3.27    34.84     0.42     4.91    99.38    35.62P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            40   71  +22      80.66     3.25    24.08     0.09     1.24    96.96    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       39   67  +17      78.16     3.51    19.67     0.01     0.34    86.17    17.94P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         41   64   -2      70.39     2.86    -2.57     0.00     0.00     2.58     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   63  +11      72.33     3.19    12.55     0.00     0.00    14.58     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           41   59   +2      66.84     3.05     3.49     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        41   57   +5      64.01     2.90     5.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       41   57   -1      64.62     2.94     0.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     41   57   -6      63.84     2.93    -6.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          41   55   -4      61.04     2.89    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   39   54  +17      65.34     3.52    19.73     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    40   48  -11      55.02     3.12   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.61R    0.00  
Hartlepool       41   46   -9      51.83     2.97   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.28R    0.00  
Yeovil           40   46  -23      52.97     3.11   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.18R    0.00  
Swindon          41   45   -4      51.43     2.94    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.87R    0.00  
Carlisle         41   44  -14      50.51     3.01   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.23R    0.00  
Crewe            41   44  -18      49.95     2.86   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.82R    0.00  
Northampton      39   42   -1      51.07     3.46    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.82R    0.00  
Brighton         39   36  -20      43.48     3.42   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.65R    2.23  
Hereford         39   33  -29      39.31     3.17   -33.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   20.21  
Cheltenham       40   31  -37      36.18     2.90   -43.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   77.56  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 April 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            40   72  +23      82.08     3.15    25.75    80.58    98.04    99.99    98.57P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               41   68  +12      74.12     2.84    11.09     2.09    26.94    91.89    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 41   67  +15      75.42     2.84    17.42     3.24    50.59    96.05    62.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              39   65  +17      76.98     3.39    20.48    11.60    69.71    97.81    78.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             41   65  +13      73.01     2.94    14.82     0.59    20.65    82.89    35.18P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           41   65   +1      70.32     2.82    -1.30     0.06     4.14    46.07    11.10P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           40   64  +17      72.82     3.21    17.95     1.80    24.24    81.53    41.31P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           41   61  +16      67.74     2.90    15.95     0.00     1.08    24.06     7.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             41   60  +10      66.38     2.95     9.26     0.00     0.22    11.73     2.92P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   60   +9      69.46     3.35    10.84     0.04     3.80    42.62    12.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            39   55  +16      65.98     3.55    18.29     0.00     0.48    15.51     4.78P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         40   55   +4      63.39     3.23     4.36     0.00     0.01     2.40     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            40   53   -1      61.12     3.18    -1.04     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            38   50  +19      64.12     3.81    23.54     0.00     0.09     7.21     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            40   48  -18      54.89     3.04   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         41   44  -14      49.04     2.68   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   41   44  -14      49.55     2.72   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            40   42  -19      48.24     3.10   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Barnet               40   40  -19      47.95     3.33   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Macclesfield         41   40  -31      45.28     2.82   -33.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.91R    0.00  
Bournemouth          41   37   +3      44.50     2.95     4.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.78R    0.01  
Grimsby              41   34  -21      40.94     2.91   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.57R    0.25  
Chester              41   33  -34      38.23     2.80   -36.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.59R    1.76  
Luton                40   22   -4      28.89     3.20    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.98  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 April 2009, Barrow vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        41   85  +31      92.46     3.06    31.92    86.45    99.99    89.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        41   76  +24      84.70     2.84    26.77     2.20    94.18    28.72P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              40   74  +25      83.11     3.36    26.25     3.46    83.23    22.20P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               39   73  +28      84.78     3.48    31.55     7.07    92.39    30.94P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           41   72  +18      80.04     2.90    19.86     0.05    46.94     9.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        38   69  +19      80.83     3.85    20.29     0.77    55.77    13.41P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            40   68  +14      76.29     3.30    14.07     0.00    11.81     2.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         40   65  +23      74.20     3.30    24.45     0.00     5.71     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            39   65  +12      75.85     3.41    13.93     0.00     9.08     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              40   62  +18      71.81     3.16    20.69     0.00     0.90     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    42   56  +12      61.69     2.56    12.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   41   56   -9      62.70     2.87    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            42   53   -7      57.63     2.54    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            40   51   -1      60.82     3.28     1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     37   47   -4      59.21     3.98    -4.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green         40   47   -6      55.66     3.33    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Altrincham           40   47  -18      53.08     2.99   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52R    0.00  
Barrow               40   43  -16      48.90     3.04   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.47R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       41   43  -21      48.58     2.88   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.99R    0.00  
Weymouth             40   42  -34      48.01     2.99   -38.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.37R    0.00  
York                 39   40   -6      51.27     3.60    -3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.63R    0.00  
Woking               40   40  -15      46.12     3.02   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.85R    0.00  
Northwich            40   25  -30      32.38     3.06   -31.60     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    1.78  
Lewes                41   20  -57      23.57     2.41   -61.75     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.22  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4