Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 3 April 2009 at 21:04:40 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.25     3.71    41.27    64.08    90.96    99.87   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.64     3.37    43.85    30.36    80.01    99.62   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.88     3.44    40.70     5.53    28.83    97.44    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.61     3.59    23.77     0.03     0.20     2.72    71.54    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.84     3.77     9.97     0.00     0.01     0.34    25.73    98.04     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.19     3.76     9.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.83    77.69     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.60     3.79     3.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    10.02     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.84     3.63    -1.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.03     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.68     3.67     3.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.14     3.64    11.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.82     3.66     1.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.02R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.43     3.65   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.66R    0.04  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.55     3.61   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.56R    0.25  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.04     3.67   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.02R    0.40  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.88     4.01   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     8.05R    0.25  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.40     3.75   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.09R    0.49  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.26     3.47   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.14R    1.53  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.36     3.51   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.61R    3.47  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.67     3.33   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.77R   22.00  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.72     3.41   -36.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.06R   71.56  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.93     3.15    28.18    84.77    96.66   100.00    97.57P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.36     3.21    15.64     6.82    40.04    99.84    54.75P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.81     3.51    34.71     6.74    44.19    99.72    64.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.80     3.47    24.28     1.08    12.12    97.12    36.66P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.47     3.31     8.26     0.01     0.71    73.06    12.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.34     3.88    18.50     0.58     6.27    90.31    27.17P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.32     3.19     3.23     0.00     0.01    18.73     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.14     3.21    12.39     0.00     0.00     9.36     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.73     3.28     6.74     0.00     0.00     8.49     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.65     3.15     8.64     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.81     3.14    -0.51     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.06     3.55     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.51     3.19    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      60.99     3.76    -3.84     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.35     3.04   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.33R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.51     3.61    -3.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.53     3.78    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.04R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.09     3.11   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.71R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.05     3.53   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.44R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.31     3.21    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.11R    0.11  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.34     3.05   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.01R    0.10  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.83     3.12   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.81R    0.72  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.81     3.44   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.93R    1.82  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.52     3.42   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.22  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        40   82  +37      94.26     3.11    43.15    90.60    99.36   100.00    99.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     40   78  +23      88.61     3.21    27.10     8.91    82.53   100.00    86.98P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         40   73  +11      82.47     3.25    12.73     0.19     7.88    99.34    26.39P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          39   69  +29      81.96     3.50    34.29     0.25     7.96    98.71    38.51P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            39   68  +21      78.99     3.53    23.02     0.03     1.45    92.13    24.48P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       39   67  +17      78.19     3.50    19.69     0.01     0.82    88.01    19.41P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   63  +11      72.29     3.18    12.48     0.00     0.00    17.82     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   61   -3      68.43     3.19    -4.12     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           40   59   +3      68.25     3.34     4.58     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   57   +0      65.98     3.28     1.12     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     40   57   -5      65.53     3.26    -4.64     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        40   56   +5      65.12     3.19     6.26     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   55   -2      62.08     3.18    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   39   54  +17      65.39     3.53    19.78     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    39   45  -12      53.33     3.43   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.43R    0.00  
Yeovil           39   45  -23      52.75     3.35   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.14R    0.00  
Swindon          40   44   -4      52.50     3.29    -3.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.92R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   43  -11      50.66     3.25   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.04R    0.00  
Carlisle         40   43  -14      49.79     3.17   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.80R    0.02  
Crewe            40   43  -18      49.78     3.13   -20.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.64R    0.01  
Northampton      39   42   -1      51.14     3.46    -1.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.64R    0.01  
Brighton         38   36  -18      43.95     3.60   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.39R    4.42  
Hereford         38   33  -27      40.13     3.42   -32.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.20R   25.91  
Cheltenham       39   31  -36      37.66     3.24   -41.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   69.63  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Aldershot vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            39   71  +23      82.54     3.44    25.89    78.07    96.78    99.97    97.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   66  +15      76.05     3.16    17.78     4.95    48.25    94.13    60.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             40   65  +17      74.60     3.26    19.18     2.81    34.84    87.65    48.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              39   65  +17      76.91     3.45    20.38     9.70    60.61    95.61    71.40P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               40   65  +11      72.69     3.14    10.37     0.77    11.96    69.60    24.32P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           40   65   +3      72.50     3.17     1.95     0.54    11.75    64.02    20.43P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           39   63  +17      73.60     3.51    18.53     2.93    26.58    79.58    41.65P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   60  +16      68.90     3.18    17.14     0.01     2.13    30.27    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   59  +10      66.72     3.24     9.25     0.00     0.26    11.14     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         39   59   +9      70.30     3.64    11.53     0.17     5.48    43.95    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   55  +17      67.07     3.82    18.87     0.04     1.35    19.84     6.77P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         39   52   +2      61.46     3.51     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            39   52   -1      60.97     3.43    -1.79     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            39   48  -17      56.11     3.35   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            37   47  +18      62.88     4.11    23.13     0.00     0.02     3.31     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   44  -12      51.10     3.07   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         40   44  -13      51.16     3.03   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            39   41  -19      48.24     3.36   -22.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield         40   39  -31      45.35     3.12   -34.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.03R    0.00  
Barnet               39   37  -21      45.59     3.55   -22.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.00  
Bournemouth          40   34   -1      42.63     3.27    -0.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.37R    0.08  
Grimsby              40   33  -21      40.50     3.11   -22.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.24R    0.32  
Chester              40   30  -35      35.96     3.04   -38.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.03R    6.69  
Luton                40   22   -4      28.90     3.20    -6.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   92.90  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 April 2009, Eastbourne_Borough vs Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        40   85  +35      94.24     3.39    36.52    87.09   100.00    90.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        40   76  +25      86.93     3.11    29.13     4.20    98.54    32.51P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               38   73  +29      86.35     3.79    32.84     8.00    96.50    33.19P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              39   71  +23      81.37     3.63    24.07     0.56    70.83    16.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   69  +17      78.26     3.23    18.59     0.00    32.86     6.02P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            39   68  +16      77.63     3.58    16.09     0.01    28.08     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        37   66  +17      79.29     4.11    18.42     0.13    45.67    10.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            38   65  +14      77.20     3.66    15.95     0.01    23.37     5.47P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         39   62  +19      72.12     3.60    19.78     0.00     3.41     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              39   59  +16      70.40     3.47    18.95     0.00     0.74     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    41   53  +11      60.50     2.90    11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            41   53   -6      58.59     2.84    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   40   53  -12      61.37     3.19   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            39   51   +1      61.80     3.55     2.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           39   47  -16      55.23     3.30   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     36   44   -5      58.08     4.24    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green         39   44   -7      53.11     3.52    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    0.00  
Barrow               39   43  -15      50.73     3.40   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.00R    0.00  
Weymouth             39   42  -31      49.13     3.29   -35.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.01R    0.00  
York                 38   40   -5      52.97     3.88    -2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.26R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       40   40  -22      46.77     3.17   -24.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.89R    0.00  
Woking               39   37  -16      44.15     3.30   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.73R    0.00  
Northwich            39   25  -29      33.25     3.32   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R    0.40  
Lewes                40   17  -59      21.15     2.64   -64.97     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.60  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4