Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 2 April 2009 at 21:04:42 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.28     3.72    41.34    64.42    91.02    99.85    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.62     3.37    43.81    30.23    80.48    99.61    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.82     3.45    40.64     5.33    28.27    97.14    99.85   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.63     3.61    23.77     0.01     0.22     3.07    71.90    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.76     3.76     9.84     0.00     0.01     0.31    25.35    98.04     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.24     3.77     9.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.83    77.53     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.65     3.79     3.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    10.48     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.82     3.64    -1.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.03     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.69     3.65     3.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.34     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.13     3.66    11.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.83     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.85     3.66     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.82     0.03R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.43     3.65   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.78R    0.03  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.60     3.62   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.58R    0.23  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.01     3.67   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.98R    0.34  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.80     4.01   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.45R    0.32  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.38     3.77   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.09R    0.59  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.26     3.47   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.11R    1.45  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.42     3.52   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.71R    3.31  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.68     3.33   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.01R   21.58  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.71     3.39   -36.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.27R   72.15  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.93     3.16    28.17    85.29    96.65   100.00    97.59P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.39     3.21    15.67     6.58    40.47    99.87    55.20P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.76     3.51    34.61     6.46    43.59    99.77    63.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.86     3.48    24.34     1.14    12.50    97.20    37.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.45     3.32     8.24     0.01     0.71    73.01    11.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.34     3.88    18.50     0.52     6.08    90.14    26.62P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.26     3.18     3.14     0.00     0.01    18.37     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.10     3.19    12.35     0.00     0.00     9.51     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.77     3.26     6.78     0.00     0.00     8.46     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.62     3.14     8.63     0.00     0.00     2.07     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.84     3.15    -0.49     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.04     3.55     1.79     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.51     3.19    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.00     3.79    -3.82     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.04R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.38     3.04   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.46     3.62    -3.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.51     3.79    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.91R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.15     3.12   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.56R    0.01  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.12     3.57   -15.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.19R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.27     3.20    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.18R    0.14  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.31     3.07   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.25R    0.08  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.84     3.11   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.64R    0.80  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.78     3.42   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.30R    1.91  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.59     3.44   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   97.03  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        40   82  +37      94.27     3.10    43.12    90.73    99.47   100.00    99.67P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     40   78  +23      88.66     3.20    27.17     8.83    83.10   100.00    87.40P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         40   73  +11      82.42     3.27    12.65     0.17     7.55    99.26    26.02P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          39   69  +29      81.93     3.49    34.23     0.21     7.62    98.78    38.11P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            39   68  +21      79.01     3.55    23.04     0.04     1.41    92.41    24.25P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       39   67  +17      78.19     3.50    19.72     0.01     0.85    87.81    19.79P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   63  +11      72.23     3.21    12.40     0.00     0.00    17.78     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   61   -3      68.40     3.19    -4.16     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           40   59   +3      68.22     3.34     4.51     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   57   +0      65.99     3.26     1.13     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     40   57   -5      65.47     3.25    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        40   56   +5      65.07     3.22     6.19     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   55   -2      62.08     3.16    -3.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   39   54  +17      65.41     3.54    19.83     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    39   45  -12      53.34     3.44   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.50R    0.00  
Yeovil           39   45  -23      52.77     3.36   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.99R    0.00  
Swindon          40   44   -4      52.44     3.29    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.17R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   43  -11      50.69     3.26   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.02R    0.01  
Carlisle         40   43  -14      49.84     3.17   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.19R    0.01  
Crewe            40   43  -18      49.80     3.13   -20.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.70R    0.03  
Northampton      39   42   -1      51.18     3.51    -1.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.75R    0.01  
Brighton         38   36  -18      44.01     3.57   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.62R    4.24  
Hereford         38   33  -27      40.13     3.41   -32.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.28R   25.96  
Cheltenham       39   31  -36      37.67     3.23   -41.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   69.74  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Aldershot vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            39   71  +23      82.52     3.46    25.85    77.88    96.75    99.97    97.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   66  +15      75.98     3.16    17.69     4.91    47.59    93.74    59.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             40   65  +17      74.61     3.25    19.20     2.94    34.84    87.77    48.27P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              39   65  +17      76.90     3.41    20.38     9.50    60.80    95.94    71.75P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               40   65  +11      72.68     3.16    10.36     0.84    11.91    69.13    24.45P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           40   65   +3      72.47     3.15     1.89     0.56    11.84    63.97    20.50P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           39   63  +17      73.65     3.48    18.59     3.13    27.11    80.24    42.07P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   60  +16      68.94     3.17    17.21     0.02     2.27    30.58    10.47P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   59  +10      66.74     3.24     9.28     0.00     0.22    11.23     2.82P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         39   59   +9      70.22     3.65    11.42     0.16     5.25    43.07    13.84P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   55  +17      67.13     3.82    18.95     0.06     1.42    20.13     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         39   52   +2      61.48     3.51     1.91     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            39   52   -1      60.92     3.43    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            39   48  -17      56.11     3.32   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            37   47  +18      62.88     4.12    23.11     0.00     0.01     3.36     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   44  -12      51.09     3.08   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         40   44  -13      51.16     3.02   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            39   41  -19      48.25     3.35   -22.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         40   39  -31      45.40     3.11   -33.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    0.00  
Barnet               39   37  -21      45.60     3.57   -22.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
Bournemouth          40   34   -1      42.62     3.27    -0.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.12R    0.07  
Grimsby              40   33  -21      40.51     3.13   -22.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.10R    0.33  
Chester              40   30  -35      35.90     3.04   -38.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.44R    6.89  
Luton                40   22   -4      28.91     3.19    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.49R   92.71  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 April 2009, Eastbourne_Borough vs Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        40   85  +35      94.21     3.38    36.50    87.30   100.00    90.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        40   76  +25      86.87     3.12    29.06     4.23    98.59    32.21P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               38   73  +29      86.27     3.76    32.71     7.71    96.35    32.53P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              39   71  +23      81.37     3.62    24.06     0.63    70.74    16.52P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   69  +17      78.26     3.24    18.61     0.00    32.49     6.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            39   68  +16      77.64     3.58    16.09     0.00    27.79     5.10P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        37   66  +17      79.31     4.12    18.47     0.12    45.66    10.29P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            38   65  +14      77.19     3.67    15.95     0.00    22.81     5.35P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         39   62  +19      72.20     3.59    19.90     0.00     3.27     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              38   58  +16      71.60     3.72    20.28     0.00     2.30     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    41   53  +11      60.54     2.90    11.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            41   53   -6      58.60     2.84    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   40   53  -12      61.42     3.18   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            39   51   +1      61.82     3.54     2.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           39   47  -16      55.19     3.31   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     36   44   -5      58.00     4.23    -4.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green         39   44   -7      53.14     3.52    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.07R    0.00  
Barrow               38   42  -15      50.26     3.58   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.76R    0.00  
Weymouth             39   42  -31      49.11     3.29   -35.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.94R    0.00  
York                 38   40   -5      52.99     3.86    -2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.33R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       40   40  -22      46.79     3.19   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.44R    0.00  
Woking               39   37  -16      44.15     3.29   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.49R    0.00  
Northwich            39   25  -29      33.29     3.33   -31.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R    0.36  
Lewes                40   17  -59      21.17     2.65   -64.92     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.64  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4