Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 31 March 2009 at 21:04:45 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.23     3.73    41.26    63.77    90.85    99.79   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.61     3.38    43.78    30.65    79.94    99.60    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.86     3.44    40.70     5.56    28.96    97.25    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.68     3.59    23.83     0.02     0.24     2.99    72.26    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.77     3.74     9.84     0.00     0.00     0.35    25.11    98.10     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.12     3.75     9.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.70    76.84     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.75     3.77     3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    10.84     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.88     3.64    -1.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.18     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.65     3.67     3.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.57     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.15     3.62    11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.70     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.85     3.66     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.83     0.03R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.36     3.65   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.85R    0.04  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.59     3.64   -21.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.51R    0.23  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.07     3.66   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.74R    0.32  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.78     4.02   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.53R    0.27  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.38     3.74   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.90R    0.52  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.30     3.47   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.90R    1.54  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.42     3.52   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.85R    3.28  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.65     3.30   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.29R   21.77  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.68     3.38   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.39R   72.03  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.89     3.18    28.11    84.69    96.55   100.00    97.51P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.44     3.21    15.73     6.88    41.03    99.86    55.65P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.74     3.53    34.58     6.63    43.10    99.71    63.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.87     3.47    24.37     1.22    12.61    97.32    37.77P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.44     3.31     8.21     0.01     0.66    73.49    11.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.34     3.86    18.49     0.57     6.05    90.42    26.86P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.22     3.17     3.10     0.00     0.00    17.73     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.02     3.20    12.22     0.00     0.00     9.00     1.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.79     3.27     6.82     0.00     0.00     8.74     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.65     3.15     8.67     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.86     3.13    -0.44     0.00     0.00     1.17     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.03     3.58     1.77     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.52     3.19    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.04     3.77    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.36     3.05   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.26R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.54     3.59    -3.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.48     3.79    -7.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.22     3.12   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.25R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.05     3.56   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.81R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.29     3.23    -9.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R    0.11  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.31     3.06   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.07R    0.07  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.84     3.13   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.73R    0.79  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.79     3.41   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.23R    1.71  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.55     3.42   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.28  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        40   82  +37      94.27     3.10    43.13    90.72    99.43   100.00    99.66P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     40   78  +23      88.64     3.20    27.14     8.79    82.67   100.00    87.02P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         40   73  +11      82.48     3.26    12.74     0.21     7.86    99.25    26.18P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          39   69  +29      81.95     3.51    34.28     0.23     7.80    98.87    38.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            39   68  +21      79.01     3.53    23.05     0.04     1.44    92.34    24.71P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       39   67  +17      78.16     3.49    19.64     0.01     0.80    87.78    19.69P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   63  +11      72.29     3.18    12.50     0.00     0.00    17.88     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   61   -3      68.42     3.18    -4.13     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           40   59   +3      68.28     3.35     4.60     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   57   +0      65.99     3.27     1.14     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     40   57   -5      65.50     3.24    -4.70     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        40   56   +5      65.04     3.21     6.14     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   55   -2      62.05     3.18    -3.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   39   54  +17      65.34     3.55    19.72     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    39   45  -12      53.30     3.46   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.62R    0.00  
Yeovil           39   45  -23      52.76     3.36   -25.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.00R    0.00  
Swindon          40   44   -4      52.47     3.31    -3.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.27R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   43  -11      50.75     3.26   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.90R    0.01  
Carlisle         40   43  -14      49.83     3.17   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.55R    0.02  
Crewe            40   43  -18      49.79     3.14   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.84R    0.03  
Northampton      39   42   -1      51.17     3.48    -1.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.44R    0.01  
Brighton         38   36  -18      43.97     3.61   -22.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.32R    4.57  
Hereford         38   33  -27      40.13     3.41   -32.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.28R   25.99  
Cheltenham       39   31  -36      37.67     3.26   -41.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.77R   69.36  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Aldershot vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            39   71  +23      82.44     3.44    25.76    77.24    96.74    99.96    97.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   66  +15      76.02     3.14    17.74     5.09    48.30    94.02    60.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             40   65  +17      74.56     3.26    19.11     2.87    34.14    87.40    47.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              39   65  +17      76.93     3.42    20.42     9.85    60.74    95.75    71.63P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               40   65  +11      72.71     3.16    10.41     0.97    12.15    69.77    25.00P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           40   65   +3      72.50     3.16     1.94     0.46    11.64    64.27    20.22P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           39   63  +17      73.66     3.51    18.58     3.30    27.13    79.98    42.01P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   60  +16      68.93     3.19    17.21     0.03     2.24    30.31    10.35P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   59  +10      66.73     3.24     9.25     0.00     0.31    10.82     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         39   59   +9      70.25     3.64    11.49     0.15     5.29    43.17    13.80P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   55  +17      67.15     3.84    18.98     0.04     1.29    20.52     7.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         39   52   +2      61.44     3.52     1.86     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            39   52   -1      60.99     3.41    -1.77     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            39   48  -17      56.10     3.33   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            37   47  +18      62.83     4.09    23.05     0.00     0.03     3.13     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   44  -12      51.12     3.06   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         40   44  -13      51.11     3.02   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            39   41  -19      48.27     3.36   -22.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         40   39  -31      45.30     3.11   -34.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    0.00  
Barnet               39   37  -21      45.64     3.56   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71R    0.01  
Bournemouth          40   34   -1      42.61     3.25    -0.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.20R    0.07  
Grimsby              40   33  -21      40.54     3.12   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.16R    0.31  
Chester              40   30  -35      35.98     3.05   -38.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.23R    6.72  
Luton                40   22   -4      28.88     3.21    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.56R   92.89  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 March 2009, Burton_Albion vs Kettering; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        40   85  +35      94.20     3.37    36.47    86.82   100.00    90.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        40   76  +25      86.91     3.14    29.11     4.40    98.52    32.40P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               38   73  +29      86.30     3.78    32.79     8.01    96.42    33.18P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              39   71  +23      81.37     3.63    24.08     0.60    70.64    16.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   69  +17      78.26     3.24    18.60     0.00    32.29     5.96P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            39   68  +16      77.64     3.56    16.12     0.00    27.93     5.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        37   66  +17      79.29     4.11    18.44     0.15    45.33    10.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            38   65  +14      77.22     3.68    15.99     0.00    23.33     5.46P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         39   62  +19      72.22     3.59    19.94     0.00     3.30     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              38   58  +16      71.66     3.73    20.34     0.00     2.24     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    41   53  +11      60.57     2.89    11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            41   53   -6      58.58     2.83    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   39   53  -11      63.05     3.49   -10.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            39   51   +1      61.84     3.55     2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           39   47  -16      55.18     3.30   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green         39   44   -7      53.12     3.51    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    0.00  
Barrow               38   42  -15      50.21     3.56   -19.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.79R    0.00  
Weymouth             39   42  -31      49.12     3.28   -35.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.84R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     35   41   -6      56.03     4.53    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30R    0.00  
York                 38   40   -5      53.02     3.89    -2.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.23R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       40   40  -22      46.74     3.17   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.45R    0.00  
Woking               39   37  -16      44.12     3.30   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.36R    0.00  
Northwich            39   25  -29      33.32     3.33   -31.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R    0.40  
Lewes                40   17  -59      21.19     2.66   -64.89     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.60  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4