Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 March 2009 at 21:04:59 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.27     3.72    41.35    64.34    90.86    99.87    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.63     3.38    43.84    30.11    80.33    99.66    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.83     3.45    40.66     5.53    28.61    97.27    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.65     3.59    23.80     0.01     0.19     2.90    71.89    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.80     3.74     9.89     0.00     0.01     0.29    25.43    98.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.23     3.77     9.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.78    77.44     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.74     3.80     3.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    10.57     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.87     3.62    -1.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.09     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.61     3.67     3.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.15     3.64    11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.93     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.79     3.63     1.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.65     0.03R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.43     3.63   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.74R    0.05  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.56     3.60   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.71R    0.27  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.04     3.65   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.86R    0.30  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.77     3.99   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.54R    0.28  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.34     3.73   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.09R    0.52  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.25     3.48   -21.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.62R    1.52  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.43     3.51   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.36R    3.36  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.67     3.32   -26.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.93R   21.91  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.72     3.41   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.10R   71.78  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.96     3.14    28.22    85.56    96.86   100.00    97.71P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.38     3.23    15.63     6.63    40.75    99.80    55.29P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.74     3.52    34.60     6.17    43.17    99.72    63.59P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.82     3.47    24.29     1.15    12.39    97.25    37.19P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.49     3.31     8.29     0.01     0.68    73.11    12.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.29     3.87    18.43     0.49     6.13    90.05    26.52P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.28     3.20     3.19     0.00     0.01    18.69     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.11     3.20    12.35     0.00     0.00     9.38     1.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.74     3.27     6.74     0.00     0.00     8.42     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.63     3.15     8.62     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.90     3.13    -0.40     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.03     3.56     1.76     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.50     3.19    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.08     3.78    -3.70     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.34     3.04   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.49     3.61    -3.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.55     3.79    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.01R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.18     3.13   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.39R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.11     3.55   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.83R    0.02  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.28     3.22    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.35R    0.11  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.31     3.06   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.93R    0.08  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.80     3.10   -21.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.01R    0.82  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.75     3.44   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.37R    1.81  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.56     3.42   -27.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   97.17  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 March 2009, Brighton vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        40   82  +37      94.27     3.10    43.12    89.97    99.08   100.00    99.46P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     40   78  +23      88.61     3.22    27.12     8.69    75.45   100.00    81.75P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         39   73  +12      84.44     3.54    14.58     1.09    17.64    99.74    34.88P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          39   69  +29      81.83     3.52    34.05     0.21     6.06    98.51    35.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            39   68  +21      79.01     3.54    23.05     0.03     1.12    91.73    24.15P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       39   67  +17      78.20     3.51    19.74     0.01     0.65    87.16    18.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   63  +11      72.24     3.17    12.44     0.00     0.00    17.10     3.82P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   61   -3      68.42     3.17    -4.11     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           40   59   +3      68.23     3.33     4.52     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        40   56   +5      65.11     3.20     6.24     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   55   -2      62.14     3.17    -3.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   38   54  +18      67.55     3.81    22.08     0.00     0.00     2.75     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       39   54   -1      63.88     3.53    -0.51     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     39   54   -6      63.05     3.49    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    39   45  -12      53.35     3.44   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.76R    0.00  
Swindon          40   44   -4      52.43     3.28    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   43  -11      50.63     3.26   -12.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.61R    0.01  
Carlisle         40   43  -14      49.82     3.17   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.32R    0.02  
Crewe            40   43  -18      49.83     3.13   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.41R    0.02  
Northampton      38   42   +0      52.83     3.79    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.82R    0.00  
Yeovil           38   42  -24      50.72     3.60   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.93R    0.06  
Brighton         38   36  -18      43.98     3.58   -22.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.30R    4.44  
Hereford         38   33  -27      40.20     3.40   -32.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.96R   25.42  
Cheltenham       39   31  -36      37.70     3.25   -41.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.68R   70.03  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 March 2009, Barnet vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            39   71  +23      82.47     3.47    25.77    71.86    96.23    99.96    97.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   66  +15      75.99     3.14    17.74     4.21    45.20    94.05    58.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             40   65  +17      74.50     3.25    19.04     2.33    31.25    87.17    45.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           40   65   +3      72.53     3.15     1.99     0.45    11.12    65.17    20.11P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              38   64  +17      78.22     3.64    21.78    17.27    71.73    97.63    79.83P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           39   63  +17      73.64     3.49    18.55     2.84    25.21    80.23    40.98P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               39   62  +10      71.76     3.44    10.44     0.62     8.02    59.11    19.42P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   60  +16      69.03     3.17    17.35     0.02     2.04    32.29    11.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   59  +10      66.75     3.23     9.29     0.00     0.23    11.52     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         38   58   +9      70.80     3.95    11.75     0.35     7.79    49.63    17.23P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   55  +17      67.14     3.81    19.00     0.04     1.17    20.68     6.75P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            39   52   -1      61.02     3.43    -1.69     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         38   49   +1      60.53     3.76     1.96     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            38   47  -17      56.39     3.64   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            36   44  +16      60.99     4.38    20.73     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   44  -12      51.11     3.06   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         40   44  -13      51.16     3.03   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            38   41  -18      49.00     3.58   -22.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         39   39  -30      46.08     3.36   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.00  
Barnet               38   36  -21      45.08     3.73   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    0.06  
Bournemouth          40   34   -1      42.63     3.28    -0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.62R    0.23  
Grimsby              40   33  -21      40.49     3.12   -22.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.94R    0.85  
Chester              40   30  -35      35.95     3.03   -38.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.10R   13.20  
Luton                39   22   -2      30.29     3.50    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.16R   85.65  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 March 2009, Weymouth vs Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        39   84  +35      94.94     3.64    37.01    92.39   100.00    94.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.78     3.39    28.79     2.52    96.64    31.18P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              39   71  +23      81.36     3.61    24.07     0.61    72.08    16.65P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               37   70  +26      84.90     4.04    30.05     4.29    91.74    27.66P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   69  +17      78.27     3.24    18.62     0.01    35.48     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        37   66  +17      79.42     4.14    18.61     0.16    48.76    11.12P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            38   65  +14      75.77     3.82    13.73     0.00    16.61     3.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            37   64  +14      77.14     3.91    15.44     0.02    25.35     5.85P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         38   62  +20      74.04     3.89    21.61     0.00    10.57     2.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              38   58  +16      71.64     3.76    20.30     0.00     2.78     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    40   52  +11      61.34     3.20    12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            40   52   -6      59.03     3.17    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            38   51   +4      63.00     3.77     5.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   38   50  -12      61.02     3.80   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           38   47  -15      56.24     3.59   -17.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green         39   44   -7      53.08     3.52    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.20R    0.00  
Barrow               38   42  -15      50.15     3.59   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.80R    0.00  
Weymouth             39   42  -31      49.10     3.29   -35.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.90R    0.00  
York                 37   40   -3      54.67     4.15     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       39   39  -22      46.70     3.44   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.20R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     34   38   -7      54.83     4.80    -6.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.21R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.03     3.54   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.99R    0.00  
Northwich            38   24  -29      33.56     3.64   -31.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R    0.35  
Lewes                40   17  -59      21.10     2.61   -65.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.65  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4