Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 28 March 2009 at 22:04:46 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.29     3.71    41.33    64.31    90.86    99.85    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.65     3.37    43.86    30.27    80.38    99.63    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.88     3.45    40.71     5.42    28.53    97.31    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.58     3.60    23.72     0.01     0.23     2.87    71.42    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.83     3.75     9.95     0.00     0.00     0.32    25.83    98.12     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.25     3.75     9.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.85    77.89     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.69     3.76     3.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    10.38     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.84     3.65    -1.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.04     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.54     3.65     3.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.05     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.19     3.65    11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.81     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.80     3.65     1.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.02R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.41     3.64   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.72R    0.04  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.58     3.62   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.45R    0.27  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      40.97     3.66   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.20R    0.34  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.84     4.00   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.06R    0.26  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.39     3.76   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    14.12R    0.49  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.25     3.50   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.48R    1.60  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.37     3.51   -17.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.09R    3.46  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.70     3.33   -26.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.69R   21.88  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.74     3.40   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.14R   71.65  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.94     3.16    28.17    85.14    96.68   100.00    97.55P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.41     3.23    15.69     6.77    41.06    99.84    55.78P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.78     3.52    34.66     6.63    43.50    99.75    64.05P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.79     3.45    24.25     0.99    12.07    97.20    36.98P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.50     3.31     8.33     0.01     0.74    73.40    12.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.28     3.88    18.41     0.46     5.95    89.78    25.87P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.29     3.18     3.20     0.00     0.01    18.45     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.12     3.20    12.34     0.00     0.00     9.43     2.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.74     3.26     6.73     0.00     0.00     8.49     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.66     3.15     8.67     0.00     0.00     2.05     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.85     3.14    -0.45     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.12     3.56     1.92     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.53     3.22    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      60.96     3.79    -3.86     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.36     3.04   -16.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.35R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.48     3.61    -3.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.49     3.78    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.00R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.18     3.14   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.51R    0.01  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.07     3.55   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.49R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.26     3.20    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.04R    0.12  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.31     3.07   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.42R    0.06  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.85     3.10   -21.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.35R    0.79  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.77     3.43   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.23R    1.90  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.56     3.43   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   97.10  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 March 2009, Brighton vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        40   82  +37      94.27     3.09    43.14    90.25    99.05   100.00    99.40P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     40   78  +23      88.63     3.21    27.12     8.50    75.84   100.00    81.69P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         39   73  +12      84.36     3.54    14.46     1.01    17.09    99.69    34.26P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          39   69  +29      81.91     3.53    34.20     0.19     6.37    98.64    36.75P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            39   68  +21      78.97     3.55    23.00     0.04     1.05    91.62    23.66P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       39   67  +17      78.16     3.50    19.66     0.01     0.60    86.99    19.08P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   63  +11      72.26     3.17    12.46     0.00     0.00    17.47     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   61   -3      68.40     3.18    -4.17     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           40   59   +3      68.27     3.33     4.61     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        40   56   +5      65.10     3.18     6.21     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          40   55   -2      62.08     3.16    -3.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   38   54  +18      67.52     3.80    22.02     0.00     0.00     2.59     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       39   54   -1      63.92     3.53    -0.48     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     39   54   -6      63.16     3.49    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    39   45  -12      53.34     3.45   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.68R    0.00  
Swindon          40   44   -4      52.40     3.29    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.54R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   43  -11      50.71     3.25   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.88R    0.01  
Carlisle         40   43  -14      49.84     3.18   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.64R    0.02  
Crewe            40   43  -18      49.76     3.11   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.26R    0.02  
Northampton      38   42   +0      52.84     3.76    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.68R    0.01  
Yeovil           38   42  -24      50.81     3.63   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.32R    0.06  
Brighton         38   36  -18      44.00     3.61   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.17R    4.31  
Hereford         38   33  -27      40.13     3.40   -32.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.12R   26.00  
Cheltenham       39   31  -36      37.69     3.24   -41.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.71R   69.57  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 March 2009, Barnet vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            39   71  +23      82.47     3.46    25.77    72.10    96.17    99.97    97.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 40   66  +15      76.04     3.17    17.76     4.33    45.89    94.05    58.66P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             40   65  +17      74.52     3.25    19.05     2.42    31.15    87.41    45.61P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           40   65   +3      72.43     3.15     1.84     0.45    10.54    64.26    19.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              38   64  +17      78.24     3.65    21.81    17.05    71.84    97.46    79.70P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           39   63  +17      73.63     3.48    18.56     2.72    25.06    80.50    40.72P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               39   62  +10      71.77     3.43    10.45     0.55     8.23    59.29    19.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           40   60  +16      69.00     3.17    17.33     0.03     2.06    32.42    11.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             40   59  +10      66.76     3.24     9.30     0.00     0.19    11.46     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         38   58   +9      70.78     3.96    11.72     0.32     7.66    49.68    17.17P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   55  +17      67.15     3.83    19.00     0.03     1.21    20.91     7.08P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            39   52   -1      60.97     3.43    -1.75     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         38   49   +1      60.56     3.78     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            38   47  -17      56.41     3.66   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            36   44  +16      61.01     4.39    20.76     0.00     0.01     1.65     0.65P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   44  -12      51.09     3.07   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         40   44  -13      51.17     3.02   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            38   41  -18      49.07     3.58   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         39   39  -30      46.09     3.35   -34.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.01  
Barnet               38   36  -21      45.01     3.73   -24.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    0.05  
Bournemouth          40   34   -1      42.63     3.28    -0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.62R    0.19  
Grimsby              40   33  -21      40.52     3.13   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.84R    0.79  
Chester              40   30  -35      35.96     3.04   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.21R   13.16  
Luton                39   22   -2      30.28     3.52    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.06R   85.82  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 March 2009, Altrincham vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        39   84  +35      94.88     3.65    36.93    92.03   100.00    94.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.69     3.41    28.66     2.81    96.50    30.61P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              39   71  +23      81.41     3.63    24.12     0.66    72.07    16.90P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               37   70  +26      84.81     4.07    29.88     4.29    91.09    27.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   69  +17      78.30     3.22    18.67     0.01    35.11     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        37   66  +17      79.41     4.15    18.61     0.17    48.32    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            38   65  +14      75.74     3.85    13.72     0.00    16.48     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            37   64  +14      77.27     3.92    15.57     0.03    26.51     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         38   62  +20      74.18     3.89    21.83     0.00    11.17     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              38   58  +16      71.69     3.74    20.41     0.00     2.74     0.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    40   52  +11      61.32     3.21    12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            40   52   -6      59.10     3.19    -7.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            38   51   +4      63.04     3.79     5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   38   50  -12      61.01     3.78   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham           38   47  -15      56.30     3.61   -17.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green         39   44   -7      52.98     3.51    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05R    0.00  
Weymouth             38   42  -28      50.97     3.62   -31.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.63R    0.00  
York                 37   40   -3      54.72     4.15     0.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      48.06     3.83   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.43R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       39   39  -22      46.63     3.43   -24.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.20R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     34   38   -7      54.72     4.77    -6.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.06R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.07     3.53   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.21R    0.00  
Northwich            38   24  -29      33.52     3.64   -31.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R    0.40  
Lewes                40   17  -59      21.07     2.62   -65.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.60  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4