Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 March 2009 at 22:04:54 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.32     3.72    41.38    64.79    91.19    99.88   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.57     3.39    43.73    29.61    79.76    99.56    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.87     3.43    40.71     5.59    28.84    97.43    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.59     3.59    23.74     0.01     0.21     2.82    71.43    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.83     3.75     9.96     0.00     0.00     0.29    25.81    98.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.20     3.75     9.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.81    77.30     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.73     3.80     3.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    10.69     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.84     3.64    -1.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.15     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.60     3.63     3.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.21     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.14     3.64    11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.74     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.82     3.64     1.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.04R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.38     3.65   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.75R    0.03  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.57     3.63   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.80R    0.25  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.04     3.66   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.97R    0.37  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.81     3.99   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.24R    0.29  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.35     3.75   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    14.25R    0.54  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.31     3.47   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.01R    1.45  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.42     3.53   -17.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.00R    3.46  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.70     3.33   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.56R   21.52  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.70     3.38   -36.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.38R   72.08  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.90     3.15    28.12    84.92    96.64   100.00    97.52P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.48     3.20    15.81     7.07    41.51    99.89    56.15P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.72     3.54    34.57     6.45    42.99    99.73    63.05P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.80     3.48    24.28     1.10    12.28    97.07    37.01P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.46     3.33     8.24     0.00     0.67    72.88    12.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.27     3.87    18.42     0.46     5.90    90.03    26.74P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.28     3.19     3.17     0.00     0.01    18.77     2.93P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.13     3.20    12.36     0.00     0.00     9.40     2.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.74     3.28     6.75     0.00     0.00     8.61     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.64     3.16     8.65     0.00     0.00     2.03     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.84     3.15    -0.48     0.00     0.00     1.13     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.12     3.57     1.89     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.54     3.19    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      60.96     3.78    -3.87     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.33     3.04   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.30R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.50     3.62    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.55     3.79    -7.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.90R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.16     3.10   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.49R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.12     3.55   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.13R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.28     3.24    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.39R    0.14  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.31     3.07   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.32R    0.07  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.83     3.12   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.73R    0.72  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.82     3.42   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.97R    1.77  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.52     3.41   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   97.27  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 March 2009, Southend vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.07     3.37    45.78    96.09    99.60   100.00    99.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.51     3.52    24.35     3.03    57.08    99.95    67.87P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      82.96     3.86    13.80     0.32    17.24    98.50    34.69P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   69  +31      83.44     3.80    36.48     0.54    24.05    99.17    49.90P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.11     3.86    20.61     0.01     1.19    79.83    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.65     3.84    16.80     0.00     0.83    74.45    16.49P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.04     3.50    13.09     0.00     0.01    33.04     7.52P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   61   -3      68.38     3.18    -4.17     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           39   59   +4      69.79     3.64     5.82     0.00     0.00     7.57     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.34     3.51     8.05     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.29     3.81     2.42     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.27     3.47    -2.54     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      66.04     4.11    20.16     0.00     0.00     2.32     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.67     3.80    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          39   44   -3      54.27     3.59    -2.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.22R    0.00  
Hartlepool       40   43  -11      50.83     3.26   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.86R    0.02  
Crewe            39   43  -17      50.88     3.43   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.38R    0.04  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.43     3.74   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.79R    0.03  
Carlisle         39   42  -14      50.18     3.47   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.25R    0.04  
Northampton      37   41   +0      53.28     4.10    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.13R    0.00  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.69     3.89   -28.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.47R    0.70  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.94     3.85   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.80R    5.86  
Hereford         37   33  -26      41.40     3.71   -31.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.57R   17.57  
Cheltenham       38   30  -36      37.43     3.48   -43.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   75.75  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 March 2009, Chesterfield vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.57     3.71    26.81    74.79    97.30    99.98    98.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             39   64  +17      75.39     3.54    19.83     3.31    42.93    90.78    54.49P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.14     3.36     0.89     0.53    10.63    63.31    19.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      79.00     3.91    22.35    17.58    77.39    97.99    83.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 39   63  +14      74.87     3.44    17.45     1.87    33.79    88.87    48.57P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.63     3.69     9.66     0.55     9.78    59.56    20.96P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           38   60  +16      72.20     3.78    17.87     1.12    16.57    69.20    31.84P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.92     3.41    16.78     0.03     3.05    35.02    12.36P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.54     3.55     9.88     0.01     0.83    20.38     5.53P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         37   55   +8      70.00     4.22    12.07     0.20     6.58    45.57    15.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.57     4.03    19.81     0.01     1.04    20.50     7.01P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.86     3.74     0.01     0.00     0.02     2.36     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.60     4.05     3.02     0.00     0.01     1.81     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.70     3.95   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   43  +16      62.28     4.60    22.03     0.00     0.09     4.60     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   39   43  -12      50.75     3.26   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.95     3.28   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.62     3.80   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.44     3.52   -35.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.16     3.97   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.02  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.54     3.50     0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.39R    0.06  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.09     3.47   -22.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.41R    1.13  
Chester              39   29  -35      35.88     3.34   -39.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.95R    7.01  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.07     3.74    -5.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.83R   91.78  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Histon vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      94.05     3.86    34.19    88.67    99.96    91.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.79     3.40    28.80     4.74    96.28    32.12P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              38   70  +23      81.95     3.91    24.40     1.84    73.60    18.49P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   68  +17      78.52     3.55    18.42     0.07    36.59     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               36   67  +25      83.38     4.36    29.17     3.98    82.16    24.58P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        36   65  +17      79.96     4.41    18.84     0.64    51.22    12.24P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            37   64  +14      76.24     4.13    13.88     0.02    20.50     3.90P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      75.04     4.20    22.55     0.01    16.07     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            36   61  +13      75.91     4.16    14.97     0.02    17.41     4.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              37   58  +17      72.79     4.03    20.94     0.00     6.22     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    39   52  +13      63.46     3.50    15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.46     4.03     5.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.31     4.06   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            39   49   -8      57.50     3.47    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.05     3.83   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Weymouth             38   42  -28      50.92     3.62   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.44R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.20     3.71    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.34R    0.00  
York                 36   39   -3      55.01     4.39     0.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      47.95     3.82   -23.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.78R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       38   39  -18      47.43     3.63   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.43R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     33   38   -6      55.80     5.01    -5.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.17     3.55   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.30R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      30.88     3.85   -35.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R    3.02  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.64     2.84   -63.52     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.98  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4