Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 26 March 2009 at 22:04:38 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.24     3.72    41.24    63.64    90.76    99.83    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.63     3.39    43.86    30.74    80.39    99.61    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.86     3.45    40.66     5.61    28.64    97.37    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.62     3.59    23.77     0.01     0.21     2.84    71.96    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.80     3.75     9.91     0.00     0.00     0.34    25.40    98.08     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.20     3.77     9.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.72    77.15     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.71     3.78     3.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    10.38     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.85     3.66    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.05     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.62     3.66     3.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.22     3.66    11.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.14     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.83     3.66     1.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.03R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.42     3.64   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.61R    0.04  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.57     3.61   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.68R    0.25  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.05     3.67   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.66R    0.31  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.78     3.99   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.33R    0.27  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.37     3.77   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.35R    0.56  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.28     3.48   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.29R    1.56  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.43     3.51   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.50R    3.17  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.63     3.30   -27.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.26R   21.68  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.70     3.38   -36.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.28R   72.16  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.93     3.15    28.15    84.99    96.80   100.00    97.62P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.44     3.24    15.72     6.87    41.69    99.82    56.07P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.74     3.52    34.59     6.60    43.20    99.69    63.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.77     3.46    24.24     1.06    11.62    96.99    36.58P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.53     3.33     8.34     0.01     0.71    73.69    12.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.29     3.87    18.46     0.47     5.97    90.31    27.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.23     3.18     3.10     0.00     0.01    18.16     2.92P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.12     3.19    12.35     0.00     0.00     9.27     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.73     3.26     6.73     0.00     0.00     8.41     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.63     3.16     8.63     0.00     0.00     2.03     0.39P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.82     3.13    -0.50     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.10     3.57     1.87     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.55     3.18    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.04     3.79    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.42     3.04   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.46     3.60    -3.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.50     3.79    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.07R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.21     3.12   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.32R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.09     3.53   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.92R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.29     3.21    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.46R    0.11  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.27     3.06   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.99R    0.07  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.85     3.10   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.49R    0.77  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.77     3.43   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.82R    1.76  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.51     3.42   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.26  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Carlisle vs Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.04     3.38    45.77    96.13    99.55   100.00    99.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.48     3.54    24.31     2.97    56.21    99.95    67.33P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      83.03     3.86    13.91     0.37    17.67    98.57    34.95P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   69  +31      83.48     3.80    36.53     0.51    24.33    99.28    50.08P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.11     3.84    20.63     0.01     1.32    80.10    21.11P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.66     3.80    16.82     0.00     0.91    74.97    16.40P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.06     3.51    13.10     0.00     0.01    32.76     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           39   59   +4      69.91     3.63     5.99     0.00     0.00     8.12     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         39   58   -4      66.97     3.45    -4.83     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.39     3.48     8.12     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.29     3.81     2.45     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.19     3.46    -2.63     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      65.98     4.12    20.06     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.59P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.68     3.79    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          39   44   -3      54.26     3.61    -2.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.64R    0.00  
Hartlepool       39   43  -10      51.90     3.55   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.81R    0.01  
Crewe            39   43  -17      50.89     3.44   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.63R    0.04  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.35     3.72   -15.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.37R    0.03  
Carlisle         39   42  -14      50.13     3.47   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.10R    0.05  
Northampton      37   41   +0      53.31     4.07    -0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.12R    0.01  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.69     3.88   -28.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.26R    0.75  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.90     3.84   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.92R    5.94  
Hereford         37   33  -26      41.45     3.73   -31.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.68R   17.87  
Cheltenham       38   30  -36      37.46     3.50   -42.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.47R   75.29  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 March 2009, Chesterfield vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.54     3.72    26.75    73.98    97.17    99.97    97.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             39   64  +17      75.38     3.55    19.83     3.29    42.74    90.87    54.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.17     3.38     0.91     0.63    10.53    63.81    19.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      79.08     3.90    22.45    18.34    77.82    98.15    84.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 39   63  +14      74.91     3.43    17.53     1.89    34.18    89.19    49.06P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.64     3.68     9.68     0.53     9.59    59.42    20.49P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           38   60  +16      72.17     3.79    17.80     1.09    16.51    68.80    31.45P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.84     3.39    16.70     0.04     2.80    34.01    11.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.49     3.56     9.82     0.01     0.84    20.19     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         37   55   +8      70.04     4.20    12.12     0.19     6.55    46.18    15.65P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.66     4.02    19.93     0.02     1.15    20.72     7.13P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.85     3.72    -0.00     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.67     4.04     3.10     0.00     0.01     1.80     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.58     3.97   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   43  +16      62.22     4.61    21.96     0.00     0.09     4.56     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   39   43  -12      50.72     3.29   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.88     3.27   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.57     3.75   -22.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.43     3.53   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.22     3.98   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.01  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.52     3.51     0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.69R    0.05  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.19     3.47   -22.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.27R    1.16  
Chester              39   29  -35      36.00     3.35   -39.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.49R    6.70  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.06     3.74    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.89R   92.08  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Histon vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      94.00     3.85    34.11    88.40    99.96    91.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.82     3.42    28.84     4.80    96.12    32.16P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              38   70  +23      81.97     3.89    24.45     1.84    73.85    18.79P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   68  +17      78.60     3.54    18.53     0.08    37.10     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               36   67  +25      83.32     4.38    29.10     4.07    81.28    24.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        36   65  +17      80.03     4.40    18.96     0.73    52.03    12.55P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            37   64  +14      76.21     4.12    13.84     0.02    20.18     3.90P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      75.02     4.17    22.54     0.01    15.78     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            36   61  +13      75.89     4.19    14.94     0.05    17.43     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              37   58  +17      72.81     4.06    20.98     0.00     6.28     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    39   52  +13      63.49     3.50    15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.45     4.04     5.60     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.27     4.07   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury            39   49   -8      57.44     3.48    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.09     3.83   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Weymouth             38   42  -28      50.97     3.67   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.37R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.19     3.69    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.35R    0.00  
York                 36   39   -3      55.02     4.42     0.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      48.02     3.82   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.98R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       38   39  -18      47.46     3.67   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     33   38   -6      55.69     5.01    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.91R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.08     3.52   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.46R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      31.03     3.83   -34.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R    2.58  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.57     2.82   -63.62     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   97.42  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4