Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 25 March 2009 at 22:04:38 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.28     3.73    41.33    64.03    90.82    99.83    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.65     3.38    43.88    30.42    80.21    99.61    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.87     3.45    40.73     5.54    28.76    97.30    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.62     3.58    23.78     0.01     0.20     2.89    71.60    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.80     3.77     9.93     0.00     0.01     0.35    25.59    98.06     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.25     3.78     9.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.90    77.77     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.68     3.78     3.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    10.17     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.89     3.66    -1.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.31     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.59     3.66     3.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.23     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.10     3.64    10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.80     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.78     3.66     1.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.03R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.41     3.65   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.82R    0.05  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.60     3.63   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.77R    0.26  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      40.97     3.65   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.17R    0.35  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.73     4.00   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     8.59R    0.27  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.39     3.75   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.16R    0.52  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.32     3.46   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.96R    1.49  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.45     3.50   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.20R    3.28  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.66     3.34   -27.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.05R   22.24  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.75     3.39   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.26R   71.54  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.96     3.16    28.18    85.21    96.69   100.00    97.53P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.42     3.22    15.72     6.72    40.93    99.84    55.62P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.78     3.51    34.64     6.44    43.30    99.73    63.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.80     3.51    24.26     1.09    12.25    96.82    36.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.48     3.31     8.28     0.01     0.65    73.50    12.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.31     3.87    18.47     0.53     6.16    90.10    26.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.25     3.20     3.15     0.00     0.01    18.33     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.15     3.22    12.39     0.00     0.00     9.67     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.72     3.27     6.73     0.00     0.00     8.31     1.54P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.65     3.16     8.66     0.00     0.00     2.12     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.87     3.13    -0.44     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.06     3.58     1.81     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.50     3.19    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.05     3.75    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.39     3.04   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.45     3.60    -3.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.51     3.77    -7.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.96R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.15     3.13   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.53R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.08     3.52   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.14R    0.02  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.29     3.21    -9.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.86R    0.13  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.27     3.06   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.07R    0.08  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.83     3.10   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.68R    0.76  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.79     3.44   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.78R    1.75  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.53     3.41   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   97.25  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Carlisle vs Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.03     3.36    45.76    96.20    99.62   100.00    99.78P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.51     3.50    24.35     2.93    56.50    99.96    67.60P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      83.00     3.85    13.87     0.25    17.25    98.54    34.28P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   69  +31      83.51     3.78    36.62     0.61    24.42    99.26    50.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.15     3.86    20.69     0.01     1.29    80.38    21.09P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.69     3.78    16.85     0.00     0.90    75.15    16.40P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.03     3.52    13.06     0.00     0.02    32.69     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           39   59   +4      69.85     3.63     5.90     0.00     0.00     7.86     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         39   58   -4      66.97     3.48    -4.84     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.39     3.49     8.10     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.28     3.79     2.43     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.25     3.48    -2.56     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      66.00     4.11    20.13     0.00     0.00     2.27     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.68     3.79    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          39   44   -3      54.29     3.63    -2.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.62R    0.00  
Hartlepool       39   43  -10      51.87     3.55   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.95R    0.00  
Crewe            39   43  -17      50.87     3.42   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.91R    0.03  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.40     3.72   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.97R    0.02  
Carlisle         39   42  -14      50.17     3.48   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.02R    0.05  
Northampton      37   41   +0      53.28     4.10    -0.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.28R    0.01  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.72     3.92   -28.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.31R    0.70  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.90     3.86   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.49R    5.94  
Hereford         37   33  -26      41.36     3.71   -31.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.92R   17.85  
Cheltenham       38   30  -36      37.41     3.48   -43.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.53R   75.40  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 March 2009, Chesterfield vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.59     3.71    26.83    74.74    97.38    99.97    98.10P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             39   64  +17      75.41     3.56    19.83     3.22    43.39    90.91    55.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.12     3.36     0.87     0.51    10.58    63.27    19.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      79.01     3.90    22.37    17.66    77.27    98.08    83.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 39   63  +14      74.90     3.46    17.48     1.95    33.79    88.78    48.78P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.59     3.68     9.61     0.52     9.48    59.10    20.43P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           38   60  +16      72.18     3.79    17.82     1.10    16.53    68.93    31.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.89     3.41    16.77     0.04     3.00    34.99    12.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.47     3.55     9.78     0.01     0.90    20.06     5.33P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         37   55   +8      70.04     4.18    12.16     0.21     6.45    46.24    15.68P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.62     4.03    19.90     0.02     1.13    20.75     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.90     3.75     0.05     0.00     0.02     2.41     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.60     4.04     3.00     0.00     0.02     1.84     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.61     3.95   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   43  +16      62.27     4.59    22.01     0.00     0.07     4.59     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   39   43  -12      50.70     3.28   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.93     3.28   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.63     3.79   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.39     3.50   -35.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.22     4.00   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.01  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.51     3.50     0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.69R    0.08  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.15     3.46   -22.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.36R    1.20  
Chester              39   29  -35      35.99     3.35   -39.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.50R    6.82  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.08     3.74    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.83R   91.88  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Histon vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      94.01     3.88    34.16    88.53    99.98    91.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.79     3.41    28.80     4.94    96.10    32.18P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              38   70  +23      81.87     3.90    24.29     1.85    72.96    18.10P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   68  +17      78.60     3.55    18.54     0.08    37.43     7.51P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               36   67  +25      83.27     4.39    29.03     3.97    81.28    24.55P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        36   65  +17      79.99     4.40    18.91     0.57    51.84    12.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            37   64  +14      76.18     4.15    13.77     0.02    20.08     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      74.98     4.18    22.47     0.01    15.85     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            36   61  +13      76.03     4.20    15.12     0.03    18.38     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              37   58  +17      72.74     4.02    20.91     0.00     6.09     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    39   52  +13      63.50     3.49    15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.46     4.05     5.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.34     4.06   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            39   49   -8      57.54     3.51    -9.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.08     3.85   -18.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Weymouth             38   42  -28      50.95     3.65   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.32R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.17     3.69    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.35R    0.00  
York                 36   39   -3      55.05     4.42     0.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      47.99     3.83   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.60R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       38   39  -18      47.43     3.67   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.40R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     33   38   -6      55.87     4.98    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.11     3.53   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.60R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      30.87     3.83   -35.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R    2.87  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.59     2.84   -63.59     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   97.13  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4