Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 24 March 2009 at 22:05:02 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.18     3.76    41.16    63.31    90.56    99.83    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.65     3.39    43.90    31.25    80.50    99.64   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.81     3.45    40.61     5.42    28.72    97.23    99.85   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.57     3.61    23.70     0.02     0.22     2.94    71.43    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.80     3.76     9.89     0.00     0.00     0.36    25.81    97.94     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.20     3.78     9.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.87    76.82     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.78     3.79     3.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    10.81     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.90     3.68    -1.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.37     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.66     3.67     3.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.43     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.23     3.64    11.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.92     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.82     3.66     1.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.02R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.36     3.64   -14.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.70R    0.04  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.57     3.62   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.70R    0.32  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      40.99     3.67   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    11.16R    0.36  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.81     4.00   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.38R    0.31  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.33     3.74   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.39R    0.51  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.27     3.47   -21.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.38R    1.64  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.44     3.52   -17.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.43R    3.47  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.70     3.32   -26.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.62R   21.78  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.73     3.40   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.22R   71.59  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.92     3.16    28.14    84.98    96.65   100.00    97.48P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.38     3.21    15.66     6.73    40.32    99.83    55.20P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.83     3.51    34.71     6.66    43.96    99.75    64.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.76     3.49    24.23     1.07    12.05    97.01    36.32P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.46     3.30     8.24     0.00     0.62    73.08    12.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.40     3.88    18.59     0.55     6.41    90.37    27.17P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.28     3.19     3.20     0.00     0.01    18.38     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.08     3.19    12.29     0.00     0.00     9.10     1.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.78     3.27     6.80     0.00     0.00     8.91     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.64     3.15     8.64     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.86     3.13    -0.46     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.05     3.59     1.81     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.47     3.18    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.05     3.80    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.40     3.04   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.30R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.43     3.59    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.53     3.81    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.99R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.13     3.11   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.60R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.06     3.52   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.36R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.33     3.22    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R    0.12  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.29     3.05   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.61R    0.06  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.88     3.12   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.24R    0.71  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.79     3.43   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.20R    1.71  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.50     3.42   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.38  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Carlisle vs Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.03     3.40    45.72    96.19    99.59   100.00    99.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.47     3.53    24.31     2.91    56.32    99.95    67.15P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      83.01     3.86    13.88     0.33    17.50    98.54    34.78P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   69  +31      83.46     3.80    36.52     0.56    24.39    99.22    50.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.17     3.83    20.74     0.01     1.28    80.86    21.45P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.69     3.81    16.84     0.00     0.90    74.93    16.48P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.01     3.49    13.03     0.00     0.02    32.31     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           39   59   +4      69.90     3.63     5.99     0.00     0.00     7.90     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         39   58   -4      66.94     3.47    -4.88     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.38     3.51     8.07     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.24     3.82     2.35     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.25     3.46    -2.55     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      65.94     4.11    20.05     0.00     0.00     2.30     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.66     3.78    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          39   44   -3      54.26     3.61    -2.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.51R    0.00  
Hartlepool       39   43  -10      51.91     3.56   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.97R    0.01  
Crewe            39   43  -17      50.89     3.44   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.67R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.35     3.71   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.35R    0.02  
Carlisle         39   42  -14      50.16     3.48   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.31R    0.04  
Northampton      37   41   +0      53.37     4.08    -0.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.74R    0.01  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.70     3.88   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.57R    0.69  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.95     3.85   -23.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.41R    5.86  
Hereford         37   33  -26      41.42     3.72   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.90R   17.80  
Cheltenham       38   30  -36      37.44     3.48   -42.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.57R   75.54  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.61     3.70    26.86    71.44    97.01    99.98    97.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             38   64  +20      77.03     3.85    23.23     8.21    59.37    95.35    68.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.06     3.36     0.75     0.46     8.86    64.42    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      79.07     3.90    22.44    16.70    75.57    98.33    82.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 39   63  +14      74.89     3.45    17.47     1.65    29.60    89.59    45.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.53     3.69     9.48     0.43     8.11    60.04    19.30P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           38   60  +16      72.15     3.79    17.78     0.97    14.13    70.57    30.39P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.88     3.40    16.74     0.04     2.44    36.12    12.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.57     3.56     9.94     0.01     0.71    22.19     5.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.69     4.02    19.97     0.01     0.95    22.20     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         36   52   +5      68.16     4.51     8.71     0.09     3.16    31.41     9.40P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.86     3.73     0.02     0.00     0.02     2.59     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.60     4.06     3.02     0.00     0.01     1.92     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.64     3.95   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   43  +16      62.28     4.64    22.06     0.00     0.07     5.19     1.98P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   39   43  -12      50.74     3.27   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.92     3.26   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.60     3.80   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.48     3.52   -35.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.24     4.00   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.01  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.47     3.49    -0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.59R    0.06  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.13     3.50   -22.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.26R    1.21  
Chester              39   29  -35      35.91     3.35   -39.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.85R    6.83  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.02     3.73    -5.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.88R   91.88  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 March 2009, Histon vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      93.96     3.87    34.08    87.88    99.96    90.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.84     3.42    28.86     5.09    96.20    32.81P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              38   70  +23      82.00     3.93    24.48     1.99    73.89    18.68P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   68  +17      78.58     3.55    18.50     0.07    37.05     7.21P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               36   67  +25      83.37     4.40    29.16     4.25    81.53    24.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        36   65  +17      80.04     4.39    18.99     0.63    52.16    12.55P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            37   64  +14      76.18     4.15    13.78     0.03    19.75     3.76P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      74.98     4.17    22.47     0.02    15.66     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            36   61  +13      75.99     4.18    15.05     0.03    17.69     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              37   58  +17      72.73     4.05    20.88     0.00     6.09     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    39   52  +13      63.48     3.50    15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.42     4.07     5.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.34     4.06   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            39   49   -8      57.49     3.47    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.13     3.83   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Weymouth             38   42  -28      50.89     3.64   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.33R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.20     3.70    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.41R    0.00  
York                 36   39   -3      55.04     4.42     0.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      47.93     3.81   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.07R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       38   39  -18      47.42     3.62   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.35R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     33   38   -6      55.74     5.00    -6.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.18     3.53   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.12R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      30.95     3.83   -35.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R    2.73  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.57     2.81   -63.62     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   97.27  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4