Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 March 2009 at 22:04:47 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.25     3.70    41.27    63.98    91.18    99.86    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.65     3.38    43.88    30.70    80.43    99.63    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.84     3.44    40.65     5.31    28.23    97.32    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.57     3.60    23.71     0.01     0.16     2.81    71.60    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.80     3.78     9.91     0.00     0.00     0.36    25.73    98.05     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.18     3.77     9.45     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.77    77.03     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.75     3.77     3.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    10.51     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.84     3.65    -1.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.32     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.61     3.66     3.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.41     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.15     3.65    11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.91     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.84     3.64     1.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.03R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.46     3.63   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.46R    0.04  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.60     3.64   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.93R    0.27  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      41.05     3.67   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.03R    0.37  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.77     4.01   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.72R    0.30  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.35     3.74   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.20R    0.51  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.27     3.47   -21.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.30R    1.54  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.47     3.53   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.12R    3.22  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.67     3.32   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.95R   21.50  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.69     3.39   -36.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.26R   72.24  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.91     3.17    28.14    84.91    96.64   100.00    97.46P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.39     3.21    15.67     6.79    40.57    99.83    55.31P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.77     3.52    34.64     6.73    43.61    99.74    63.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.79     3.48    24.28     1.04    12.09    96.98    36.67P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.47     3.29     8.25     0.01     0.64    73.34    12.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.39     3.88    18.56     0.52     6.45    90.47    27.67P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.25     3.19     3.15     0.00     0.01    18.21     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.09     3.20    12.31     0.00     0.00     9.24     1.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.76     3.27     6.78     0.00     0.00     8.56     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.68     3.17     8.69     0.00     0.00     2.06     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.87     3.15    -0.44     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.11     3.55     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.47     3.17    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.01     3.78    -3.81     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.34     3.06   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.31R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.50     3.61    -3.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.65R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.55     3.78    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.99R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.17     3.12   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.27R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.08     3.56   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.37R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.25     3.21    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.72R    0.13  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.34     3.05   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.85R    0.06  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.82     3.10   -21.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.00R    0.76  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.80     3.43   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.84R    1.77  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.51     3.41   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.25  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.04     3.38    45.75    95.11    99.41   100.00    99.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.56     3.51    24.47     2.92    49.07    99.93    62.67P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      82.94     3.86    13.79     0.30    13.81    98.38    31.88P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   68  +31      85.06     3.98    38.77     1.66    36.20    99.57    58.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.04     3.86    20.50     0.00     0.88    78.25    19.92P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.61     3.79    16.77     0.00     0.62    73.01    15.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.09     3.52    13.15     0.00     0.01    32.44     7.49P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           38   58   +4      70.65     3.93     6.60     0.00     0.00    12.35     2.35P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         39   58   -4      66.96     3.47    -4.83     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.43     3.52     8.17     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.34     3.82     2.52     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.29     3.46    -2.51     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      66.01     4.12    20.15     0.00     0.00     2.17     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.66     3.81    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool       39   43  -10      51.95     3.53   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.54R    0.00  
Carlisle         38   42  -13      52.30     3.79   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.72R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.41     3.73   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.03R    0.01  
Crewe            38   42  -17      50.25     3.60   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.84R    0.05  
Northampton      36   41   +1      55.03     4.33     1.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.68R    0.00  
Swindon          38   41   -4      52.10     3.86    -4.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.66R    0.01  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.79     3.89   -28.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.05R    0.38  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.93     3.88   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.18R    4.27  
Hereford         36   30  -27      39.00     3.94   -34.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.88R   33.17  
Cheltenham       37   29  -36      37.30     3.74   -44.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.41R   62.11  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.68     3.71    26.94    70.44    96.53    99.97    97.67P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             38   64  +20      76.99     3.86    23.19     7.86    55.71    95.02    66.28P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.12     3.38     0.87     0.47     8.46    63.16    17.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      78.98     3.93    22.31    15.71    72.29    97.97    80.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 38   62  +14      74.86     3.70    16.98     2.03    27.91    87.33    43.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.50     3.68     9.44     0.38     7.12    58.50    18.20P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           37   60  +17      73.94     4.09    19.37     2.98    25.88    81.29    41.72P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.88     3.41    16.72     0.03     2.05    34.85    11.54P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.51     3.54     9.86     0.01     0.56    20.47     5.12P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.56     4.02    19.80     0.02     0.74    20.12     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         36   52   +5      68.04     4.50     8.53     0.07     2.51    29.16     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.92     3.75     0.07     0.00     0.00     2.43     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.64     4.08     3.06     0.00     0.01     1.81     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.67     3.97   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.91     3.25   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            34   42  +16      63.10     4.87    22.69     0.00     0.22     7.84     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.68     3.77   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   38   40  -13      48.73     3.51   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.53     3.53   -34.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.13     3.98   -23.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.01  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.45     3.50    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.74R    0.06  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.13     3.45   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.60R    1.12  
Chester              39   29  -35      35.95     3.36   -39.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.27R    6.91  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.08     3.74    -5.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.79R   91.90  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Altrincham vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      94.08     3.84    34.25    85.97    99.99    89.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.82     3.44    28.81     4.31    96.73    31.86P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              37   69  +23      83.46     4.14    26.09     3.78    85.20    23.14P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               35   66  +25      84.16     4.64    29.85     5.59    85.83    26.57P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   65  +15      76.48     3.80    15.79     0.01    21.97     4.16P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.04     4.42    12.89     0.03    22.55     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        35   62  +16      77.90     4.67    17.22     0.26    37.41     8.45P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      75.11     4.19    22.64     0.01    18.17     4.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              36   58  +18      74.59     4.32    22.64     0.01    16.58     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            34   57  +11      74.71     4.71    13.10     0.03    15.53     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    38   52  +15      65.45     3.79    18.51     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.43     4.05     5.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.30     4.08   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            38   46   -9      55.80     3.76   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.13     3.86   -18.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Weymouth             37   42  -26      52.05     3.89   -30.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.24R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.17     3.70    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.27R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      47.96     3.83   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.72R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.44     4.66     0.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.35     5.29    -4.75     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.49R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       37   38  -18      46.84     3.81   -23.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.15R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.13     3.53   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.17R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      30.89     3.82   -35.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R    2.76  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.57     2.81   -63.65     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   97.24  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4