Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 22 March 2009 at 22:04:39 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Liverpool vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.25     3.72    41.28    63.86    90.90    99.83    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   64  +33      81.66     3.38    43.90    30.64    80.54    99.57    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.85     3.45    40.65     5.49    28.31    97.12    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.69     3.60    23.88     0.01     0.25     3.16    72.32    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   52   +7      64.75     3.75     9.84     0.00     0.00     0.31    24.78    98.06     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.31     3.79     9.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.01    78.08     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           30   41   +2      52.65     3.76     3.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     9.80     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.89     3.63    -1.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.15     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.62     3.68     3.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.36     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   38   +9      50.15     3.63    11.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.81     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.81     3.63     1.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.79     0.02R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.46     3.65   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.68R    0.03  
Hull            30   33  -17      41.59     3.62   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.58R    0.28  
Sunderland      30   32  -10      40.98     3.66   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.21R    0.32  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.81     3.99   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.14R    0.28  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.32     3.72   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.37R    0.51  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.23     3.47   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.69R    1.53  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.44     3.54   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.25R    3.22  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.68     3.32   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.80R   21.35  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.66     3.39   -36.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.25R   72.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 March 2009, Cardiff vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.92     3.17    28.16    84.91    96.75   100.00    97.68P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.42     3.23    15.73     6.98    41.25    99.84    56.03P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.76     3.50    34.62     6.45    43.25    99.69    63.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        39   66  +21      77.77     3.47    24.23     1.17    12.00    97.12    36.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.49     3.31     8.30     0.01     0.66    73.24    12.09P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   63  +15      76.28     3.86    18.44     0.49     6.07    90.10    26.50P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.23     3.19     3.11     0.00     0.01    18.21     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.15     3.20    12.40     0.00     0.00     9.64     2.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.76     3.27     6.77     0.00     0.00     8.58     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.62     3.15     8.61     0.00     0.00     2.06     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.89     3.15    -0.44     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.07     3.58     1.83     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.54     3.19    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.07     3.79    -3.71     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.40     3.05   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.30R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.44     3.59    -3.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.69R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.50     3.80    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.99R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.15     3.12   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.57R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.10     3.53   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.11R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.29     3.24    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.37R    0.15  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.31     3.07   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.26R    0.07  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.84     3.10   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.62R    0.81  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.78     3.42   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.13R    1.79  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.55     3.42   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.15  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.07     3.39    45.84    95.13    99.38   100.00    99.62P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.54     3.50    24.43     2.83    48.84    99.95    62.30P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      82.90     3.84    13.73     0.25    13.71    98.39    31.34P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   68  +31      85.10     4.00    38.81     1.78    36.58    99.53    59.06P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.01     3.86    20.47     0.00     0.88    78.19    20.55P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.58     3.78    16.70     0.00     0.59    72.88    15.95P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.11     3.49    13.17     0.00     0.01    32.54     7.42P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           38   58   +4      70.68     3.92     6.65     0.00     0.00    12.48     2.39P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         39   58   -4      66.89     3.48    -4.93     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.37     3.50     8.06     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.35     3.80     2.53     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.22     3.46    -2.61     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      65.99     4.09    20.08     0.00     0.00     2.22     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.72     3.79    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool       39   43  -10      51.96     3.56   -11.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.78R    0.00  
Carlisle         38   42  -13      52.26     3.79   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.75R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.44     3.72   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.75R    0.01  
Crewe            38   42  -17      50.27     3.59   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.43R    0.05  
Northampton      36   41   +1      55.17     4.35     1.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.39R    0.00  
Swindon          38   41   -4      52.07     3.85    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.58R    0.01  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.76     3.90   -28.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.75R    0.44  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.96     3.83   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.22R    4.29  
Hereford         36   30  -27      38.94     3.91   -34.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.00R   33.87  
Cheltenham       37   29  -36      37.40     3.72   -43.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.35R   61.32  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.64     3.70    26.87    70.47    96.34    99.96    97.41P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             38   64  +20      76.99     3.85    23.17     7.93    55.60    94.96    66.20P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.18     3.38     0.98     0.47     8.44    63.61    17.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      78.99     3.90    22.32    15.67    72.05    98.07    80.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 38   62  +14      74.89     3.71    17.01     2.03    28.03    87.31    43.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.51     3.68     9.46     0.38     7.19    58.35    18.11P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           37   60  +17      74.01     4.06    19.48     2.96    26.15    81.80    41.85P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.87     3.41    16.72     0.03     2.13    34.12    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.58     3.55     9.96     0.00     0.62    20.83     5.40P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.55     4.02    19.77     0.00     0.72    19.91     6.33P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         36   52   +5      67.97     4.51     8.42     0.05     2.50    28.74     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.85     3.73    -0.03     0.00     0.01     2.31     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.74     4.08     3.24     0.00     0.01     1.93     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.67     3.96   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.94     3.26   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   42  +16      63.08     4.90    22.65     0.00     0.21     8.00     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.64     3.79   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   38   40  -13      48.67     3.54   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.51     3.53   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.10     3.97   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.02  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.48     3.51     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.53R    0.05  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.12     3.46   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.05R    1.23  
Chester              39   29  -35      35.93     3.34   -39.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.98R    6.83  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.09     3.73    -5.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.91R   91.87  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Altrincham vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      94.09     3.87    34.27    85.94    99.98    89.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.87     3.39    28.89     4.28    97.13    32.19P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              37   69  +23      83.42     4.13    26.04     3.72    85.13    23.34P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               35   66  +25      84.11     4.66    29.77     5.73    85.55    26.39P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   65  +15      76.38     3.81    15.64     0.02    21.58     4.07P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.23     4.40    13.13     0.04    23.67     4.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        35   62  +16      77.85     4.66    17.15     0.24    37.17     8.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      75.00     4.16    22.48     0.01    17.38     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              36   58  +18      74.60     4.32    22.63     0.00    16.58     4.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            34   57  +11      74.74     4.70    13.15     0.03    15.79     3.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    38   52  +15      65.53     3.78    18.63     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.41     4.06     5.51     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.30     4.06   -10.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            38   46   -9      55.77     3.77   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.13     3.84   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Weymouth             37   42  -26      52.03     3.92   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.36R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.11     3.70    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.26R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      47.92     3.80   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.75R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.45     4.68     0.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.36     5.30    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.46R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       37   38  -18      46.90     3.80   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.47R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.12     3.51   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.66R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      30.89     3.82   -35.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R    2.82  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.61     2.82   -63.60     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   97.18  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4