Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 21 March 2009 at 22:04:36 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Blackburn vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   65  +31      84.23     3.76    41.24    72.46    92.36    99.76    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   61  +32      77.84     3.46    40.67     7.72    40.26    96.69    99.69   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      79.99     3.75    38.55    19.78    66.80    97.93    99.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   55  +21      67.77     3.61    24.01     0.04     0.44     3.98    63.37    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   52  +12      66.23     3.97    15.01     0.01     0.15     1.63    35.02    99.14     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   48   +9      59.14     3.78     9.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.15    78.69     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        30   41   +0      50.93     3.63    -1.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.22     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   40   +4      50.67     3.67     3.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       30   38   +2      48.86     3.67     1.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.57     4.10     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.14     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        29   35   +8      49.13     3.91    10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bolton          30   34  -12      43.29     3.63   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.06R    0.06  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.50     3.89   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.02R    0.18  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.81     3.92   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.04R    0.31  
Portsmouth      29   32  -14      42.74     4.00   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.98R    0.27  
Stoke           30   32  -18      41.33     3.77   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.94R    0.57  
Blackburn       30   31  -16      39.36     3.51   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.38R    1.55  
Newcastle       30   29  -13      37.38     3.52   -17.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.04R    3.43  
Middlesbrough   30   27  -21      33.52     3.30   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.41R   23.22  
West_Brom       30   24  -29      30.78     3.44   -36.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.00R   70.42  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Birmingham vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    40   77  +24      87.92     3.17    28.14    83.88    96.20   100.00    97.17P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       40   72  +14      81.35     3.22    15.60     6.46    38.33    99.85    53.25P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   68  +30      80.83     3.52    34.72     6.58    42.40    99.74    63.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          40   65   +8      73.51     3.31     8.32     0.01     0.72    74.46    12.38P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.51     3.74    20.32     0.30     4.94    88.85    26.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   63  +18      78.44     4.13    22.54     2.77    17.39    95.54    39.15P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          40   61   +3      69.19     3.18     3.06     0.00     0.02    18.56     3.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          40   58  +11      67.09     3.20    12.31     0.00     0.00    10.09     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     40   58   +6      66.76     3.28     6.78     0.00     0.00     8.97     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          40   56   +8      64.60     3.15     8.59     0.00     0.00     2.23     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              40   56   +0      63.83     3.15    -0.49     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   39   51   +1      61.08     3.58     1.83     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        40   51   -9      58.44     3.19   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Coventry         38   50   -4      61.03     3.80    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   49  -14      55.40     3.05   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    0.00  
Watford          39   47   -5      57.50     3.58    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Derby            38   47   -5      56.46     3.80    -7.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.07R    0.00  
Blackpool        40   47  -12      54.16     3.12   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.47R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   44  -11      52.14     3.55   -15.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.81R    0.03  
Norwich          40   43   -8      50.30     3.21    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.20R    0.08  
Plymouth         40   43  -14      50.30     3.05   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.40R    0.07  
Nottm_Forest     40   41  -19      47.89     3.14   -20.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.39R    0.71  
Southampton      39   40  -16      47.78     3.40   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.55R    1.73  
Charlton         39   29  -24      36.50     3.39   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R   97.38  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        39   82  +39      96.08     3.38    45.81    95.35    99.35   100.00    99.61P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     39   75  +21      86.55     3.52    24.41     2.78    48.79    99.95    62.04P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         38   70  +11      82.97     3.87    13.84     0.24    14.27    98.32    32.19P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   68  +31      85.06     3.96    38.75     1.61    35.96    99.59    58.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            38   65  +19      77.07     3.86    20.56     0.01     0.97    78.23    20.11P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       38   64  +14      76.62     3.80    16.78     0.00     0.65    72.99    16.13P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   62  +11      73.09     3.51    13.13     0.00     0.01    32.47     7.41P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           38   58   +4      70.69     3.94     6.67     0.00     0.00    12.53     2.41P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         39   58   -4      66.92     3.47    -4.90     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        39   56   +7      66.41     3.50     8.13     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   54   +2      65.25     3.82     2.42     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          39   54   -2      63.22     3.47    -2.62     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   37   51  +16      66.03     4.08    20.18     0.00     0.00     2.21     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     38   51   -7      61.69     3.79    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool       39   43  -10      52.00     3.54   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.44R    0.00  
Carlisle         38   42  -13      52.28     3.76   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.64R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    38   42  -13      51.47     3.72   -14.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.60R    0.00  
Crewe            38   42  -17      50.25     3.58   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.72R    0.05  
Northampton      36   41   +1      55.11     4.36     1.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.62R    0.00  
Swindon          38   41   -4      52.07     3.86    -4.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.77R    0.01  
Yeovil           37   39  -25      48.76     3.88   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.54R    0.43  
Brighton         37   35  -18      43.94     3.85   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.16R    4.27  
Hereford         36   30  -27      38.91     3.90   -34.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.13R   33.83  
Cheltenham       37   29  -36      37.33     3.75   -43.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.37R   61.40  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.61     3.71    26.86    69.91    96.15    99.98    97.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             38   64  +20      76.96     3.84    23.12     7.83    55.75    94.93    66.13P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   64   +3      72.11     3.37     0.85     0.44     8.29    62.99    16.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   63  +17      79.02     3.92    22.35    16.16    72.72    98.07    80.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 38   62  +14      74.84     3.70    16.94     2.08    27.28    87.11    43.07P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               38   61  +10      71.56     3.67     9.56     0.44     7.49    58.90    18.67P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           37   60  +17      73.96     4.07    19.42     3.02    25.99    81.69    41.97P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           39   59  +16      68.86     3.41    16.72     0.04     2.09    34.36    11.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             39   58  +10      67.51     3.55     9.86     0.00     0.53    20.29     5.22P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.62     4.03    19.84     0.00     0.77    20.56     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         36   52   +5      68.08     4.51     8.57     0.07     2.70    29.24     8.50P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   52   +0      62.80     3.73    -0.09     0.00     0.01     2.23     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         37   48   +1      61.66     4.04     3.11     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   47  -16      57.69     3.95   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         39   43  -13      50.89     3.27   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   42  +16      63.11     4.85    22.68     0.00     0.24     7.80     3.02P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            37   41  -17      49.65     3.80   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   38   40  -13      48.68     3.52   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Macclesfield         38   39  -29      46.51     3.52   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71R    0.00  
Barnet               37   36  -20      46.12     3.97   -23.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88R    0.01  
Bournemouth          39   34   +0      43.50     3.51     0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.59R    0.04  
Grimsby              39   30  -22      39.17     3.49   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.46R    1.18  
Chester              39   29  -35      35.96     3.35   -39.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.40R    6.87  
Luton                38   19   -3      28.12     3.75    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.87R   91.90  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 March 2009, Altrincham vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        38   81  +31      94.10     3.85    34.26    85.86    99.97    89.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.84     3.39    28.84     4.30    96.99    31.85P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              37   69  +23      83.42     4.14    26.07     3.81    85.14    23.26P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               35   66  +25      84.13     4.64    29.82     5.71    85.86    26.82P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   65  +15      76.47     3.83    15.74     0.02    22.34     4.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.13     4.41    13.02     0.04    23.09     4.33P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        35   62  +16      77.85     4.69    17.13     0.19    37.10     8.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   61  +20      75.01     4.16    22.51     0.01    17.70     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              36   58  +18      74.67     4.29    22.76     0.01    16.72     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            34   57  +11      74.68     4.71    13.05     0.03    15.06     3.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    38   52  +15      65.46     3.79    18.53     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            37   50   +4      63.29     4.07     5.34     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   37   50  -10      62.39     4.07    -9.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury            38   46   -9      55.76     3.79   -10.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Altrincham           37   46  -15      56.08     3.85   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Weymouth             37   42  -26      52.03     3.90   -30.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.33R    0.00  
Forest_Green         38   41  -10      52.13     3.70    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.49R    0.00  
Barrow               37   39  -18      47.95     3.84   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.01R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.44     4.66     0.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.46     5.31    -4.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       37   38  -18      46.90     3.79   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.67R    0.00  
Woking               38   37  -15      45.19     3.53   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.03R    0.00  
Northwich            37   21  -31      30.86     3.82   -35.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R    2.80  
Lewes                39   17  -56      21.60     2.82   -63.56     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   97.20  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4