Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 20 March 2009 at 22:04:31 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2009, West_Ham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   65  +33      86.64     3.89    44.77    80.29    94.56    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   61  +33      80.15     3.68    43.06    10.32    54.88    99.04    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      80.15     3.74    38.70     9.38    50.41    98.48    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   52  +19      66.30     3.91    22.22     0.01     0.11     1.53    50.10    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   52  +12      66.03     3.96    14.69     0.00     0.04     0.91    41.20    98.89     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   48  +10      61.20     4.07    11.34     0.00     0.00     0.06     8.86    88.51     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        29   40   +0      51.41     3.96    -1.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.51     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.53     4.10     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.52     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          29   37   +2      47.80     3.83     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.08R    0.00  
Man_City        29   35   +8      49.23     3.92    11.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.08R    0.00  
Tottenham       29   35   +1      46.19     3.87    -0.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.63R    0.00  
Bolton          29   33  -12      43.96     3.96   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.01R    0.11  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.51     3.88   -20.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.47R    0.30  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.66     3.89   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.77R    0.48  
Blackburn       29   30  -16      39.56     3.81   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.82R    2.34  
Newcastle       29   29  -11      38.62     3.80   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.93R    2.68  
Portsmouth      28   29  -15      40.49     4.26   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.78R    2.08  
Stoke           29   29  -19      40.08     4.07   -20.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    24.89R    2.66  
Middlesbrough   29   27  -20      34.71     3.59   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.35R   18.21  
West_Brom       29   23  -29      31.06     3.76   -36.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.18R   71.12  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 March 2009, Cardiff vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    39   74  +23      86.69     3.47    27.77    67.54    89.06   100.00    91.93P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       39   71  +14      82.51     3.50    16.71    15.36    47.95    99.85    61.06P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          38   67  +30      81.46     3.82    35.12    13.30    43.99    99.71    63.90P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.51     3.77    20.32     0.48     3.94    87.17    25.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   63  +18      78.45     4.14    22.59     3.30    14.82    95.04    37.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          39   62   +7      71.84     3.57     7.26     0.01     0.20    52.32     8.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          39   60   +3      69.75     3.49     3.33     0.00     0.04    25.85     4.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     39   58   +7      68.14     3.51     7.87     0.00     0.00    18.21     3.58P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          39   57  +11      67.53     3.52    12.43     0.00     0.00    14.99     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          39   55   +8      65.59     3.47     9.55     0.00     0.00     5.63     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              39   53   -1      62.12     3.42    -1.52     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   38   50   +1      61.21     3.84     1.51     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        39   50   -9      58.77     3.49   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.22R    0.00  
Doncaster        39   49  -13      56.37     3.30   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.06R    0.00  
Coventry         37   47   -5      59.71     4.06    -4.35     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.36R    0.00  
Watford          38   46   -5      57.31     3.85    -4.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.38R    0.00  
Derby            37   46   -5      57.38     4.07    -6.68     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.26R    0.00  
Blackpool        39   46  -12      54.82     3.42   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.33R    0.00  
Barnsley         37   43  -11      52.05     3.81   -15.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.46R    0.08  
Plymouth         39   43  -13      51.64     3.39   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.74R    0.06  
Norwich          39   42   -8      49.99     3.44   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.53R    0.35  
Nottm_Forest     39   41  -18      48.94     3.43   -20.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.29R    0.79  
Southampton      38   39  -16      47.79     3.68   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.53R    2.65  
Charlton         38   28  -24      36.70     3.73   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.81R   96.06  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Cheltenham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        38   81  +39      97.37     3.61    47.21    92.31    99.53   100.00    99.72P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   72  +20      84.47     3.80    22.67     0.62    20.05    99.55    41.54P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   67  +32      88.61     4.45    42.75     7.04    75.85    99.87    84.53P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   64   +9      78.98     4.38    10.66     0.03     3.50    86.43    20.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            37   62  +18      75.73     4.13    20.00     0.00     0.55    69.50    19.69P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   61  +12      75.67     4.05    15.83     0.00     0.47    67.72    15.83P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   59   +9      71.04     3.80    10.51     0.00     0.00    22.46     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   58   +6      72.58     4.19     9.45     0.00     0.04    34.38     7.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        38   56  +11      68.28     3.79    12.93     0.00     0.00     7.93     2.11P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         38   55   -7      65.23     3.74    -8.03     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   53   +2      64.79     4.02     1.06     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   36   51  +17      67.69     4.40    21.58     0.00     0.00     9.09     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     37   50   -7      62.75     4.09    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          37   48   -6      59.95     3.99    -6.72     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Hartlepool       38   43   -9      53.34     3.84   -10.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.02R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -10      53.75     4.05   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.21R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    37   42  -12      53.00     4.00   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.82R    0.00  
Crewe            37   42  -16      51.16     3.83   -21.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.10R    0.06  
Northampton      35   38   -3      52.74     4.56    -3.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.15R    0.04  
Swindon          37   38   -7      50.83     4.14    -6.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.32R    0.13  
Yeovil           36   38  -25      48.49     4.12   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.34R    0.93  
Brighton         35   35  -13      46.03     4.37   -19.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.49R    2.30  
Hereford         35   30  -24      40.08     4.20   -31.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.00R   25.27  
Cheltenham       36   28  -36      36.92     3.97   -45.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.42R   71.25  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.45     3.69    26.63    58.94    94.57    99.87    96.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           38   64   +6      73.91     3.68     4.55     1.26    15.41    70.47    25.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   63  +18      81.09     4.17    24.38    29.97    81.54    98.45    86.67P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             37   61  +19      74.52     4.07    20.97     2.52    26.49    78.10    39.52P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61  +14      76.45     3.88    18.92     4.23    40.26    89.18    53.12P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   61  +11      73.26     3.97    11.09     1.08    13.22    65.36    24.70P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   58  +16      69.70     3.67    17.35     0.07     2.92    34.34    11.77P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             38   58  +11      69.84     3.81    12.32     0.08     2.39    33.26     9.75P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           36   57  +15      73.06     4.32    18.64     1.63    17.21    66.32    31.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.63     4.02    19.93     0.00     0.54    14.84     4.89P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         35   52   +8      69.48     4.70    11.63     0.20     4.70    34.06    11.56P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   51   +0      62.56     3.97    -0.95     0.00     0.01     1.61     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         36   48   +2      63.31     4.31     4.54     0.00     0.06     3.22     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   44  -15      55.68     4.29   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         38   40  -14      48.67     3.50   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   39  +14      64.27     5.40    22.98     0.00     0.67    10.87     4.59P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         37   39  -28      47.29     3.75   -35.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Port_Vale            36   38  -18      47.05     3.98   -25.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   37   37  -14      46.69     3.81   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Bournemouth          38   34   +1      45.72     3.80     2.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75R    0.00  
Barnet               36   33  -21      44.20     4.23   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.83R    0.06  
Chester              38   28  -35      35.26     3.49   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.55R    7.05  
Grimsby              38   27  -25      37.09     3.74   -26.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.07R    3.06  
Luton                37   16   -4      27.17     4.01    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.96R   89.83  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 19 March 2009, Kettering vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        37   78  +30      92.92     4.16    33.98    80.25    99.87    85.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.73     3.42    28.70     6.60    96.95    33.48P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               35   66  +25      84.09     4.66    29.76     8.11    86.24    27.90P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +22      82.58     4.38    26.24     4.51    80.79    23.17P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   65  +15      76.33     3.80    15.55     0.02    23.29     4.46P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.22     4.42    13.17     0.08    24.90     4.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        34   59  +13      76.31     4.89    14.23     0.20    27.19     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              35   58  +20      76.61     4.60    25.65     0.12    33.73     8.64P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   58  +18      72.74     4.45    19.53     0.01     9.65     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            34   57  +11      74.85     4.71    13.29     0.09    17.16     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    37   51  +15      66.17     4.06    19.02     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   50   +5      65.15     4.31     7.05     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   36   50   -9      63.50     4.32    -9.47     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           36   46  -12      58.09     4.17   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury            37   45   -9      55.85     4.04   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Weymouth             37   42  -26      52.04     3.88   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.25R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.58     4.70     0.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.19     5.23    -5.01     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.33R    0.00  
Forest_Green         37   38  -13      49.99     3.97   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.03R    0.00  
Woking               37   37  -12      46.34     3.80   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.77R    0.00  
Barrow               36   36  -20      46.79     4.02   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.29R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       36   35  -19      44.80     4.02   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.84R    0.00  
Northwich            36   21  -30      31.53     4.02   -35.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.71R    3.62  
Lewes                38   17  -54      22.33     3.07   -62.44     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.38  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4