Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 March 2009 at 22:04:42 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2009, West_Ham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   65  +33      86.65     3.91    44.77    80.39    94.58    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   61  +33      80.12     3.69    43.02    10.23    54.63    99.01    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      80.17     3.73    38.74     9.37    50.61    98.58    99.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   52  +19      66.37     3.92    22.36     0.00     0.13     1.53    50.54    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   52  +12      66.08     3.96    14.76     0.00     0.05     0.91    41.13    99.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   48  +10      61.19     4.05    11.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.44    88.75     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        29   40   +0      51.38     3.97    -1.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.46     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.53     4.05     2.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.25     0.02R    0.00  
Fulham          29   37   +2      47.79     3.84     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.09R    0.00  
Man_City        29   35   +8      49.13     3.95    10.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.94     0.08R    0.00  
Tottenham       29   35   +1      46.14     3.88    -0.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.61R    0.01  
Bolton          29   33  -12      43.91     3.96   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.19R    0.13  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.40     3.85   -21.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.92R    0.33  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.76     3.87   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.47R    0.44  
Blackburn       29   30  -16      39.66     3.80   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.72R    2.32  
Newcastle       29   29  -11      38.60     3.82   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.44R    2.91  
Portsmouth      28   29  -15      40.53     4.25   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    21.74R    1.99  
Stoke           29   29  -19      39.99     4.07   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.42R    2.69  
Middlesbrough   29   27  -20      34.76     3.62   -26.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.21R   17.81  
West_Brom       29   23  -29      31.06     3.76   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.09R   71.36  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 March 2009, Cardiff vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    39   74  +23      86.67     3.47    27.76    67.55    88.95   100.00    91.78P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       39   71  +14      82.45     3.49    16.66    15.04    46.85    99.84    60.10P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          38   67  +30      81.48     3.82    35.17    13.52    44.89    99.65    64.35P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.52     3.75    20.32     0.49     3.95    87.47    25.34P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   63  +18      78.46     4.15    22.60     3.39    15.11    95.08    37.68P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          39   62   +7      71.82     3.58     7.25     0.01     0.22    52.28     8.41P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          39   60   +3      69.67     3.48     3.22     0.00     0.03    25.26     4.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     39   58   +7      68.12     3.54     7.82     0.00     0.00    18.39     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          39   57  +11      67.55     3.52    12.48     0.00     0.00    15.08     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          39   55   +8      65.60     3.48     9.57     0.00     0.00     5.60     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              39   53   -1      62.17     3.41    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   38   50   +1      61.17     3.84     1.44     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        39   50   -9      58.78     3.47   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Doncaster        39   49  -13      56.42     3.32   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.00  
Coventry         37   47   -5      59.69     4.06    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.37R    0.00  
Watford          38   46   -5      57.35     3.84    -4.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.31R    0.00  
Derby            37   46   -5      57.33     4.04    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.35R    0.00  
Blackpool        39   46  -12      54.81     3.44   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.35R    0.00  
Barnsley         37   43  -11      52.05     3.80   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.58R    0.10  
Plymouth         39   43  -13      51.69     3.39   -13.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.47R    0.05  
Norwich          39   42   -8      49.92     3.43   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.75R    0.35  
Nottm_Forest     39   41  -18      48.96     3.42   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.61R    0.74  
Southampton      38   39  -16      47.80     3.69   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.12R    2.80  
Charlton         38   28  -24      36.76     3.71   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.77R   95.95  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Cheltenham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        38   81  +39      97.46     3.60    47.34    92.28    99.55   100.00    99.73P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   72  +20      84.50     3.82    22.72     0.57    19.86    99.54    41.28P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   67  +32      88.67     4.46    42.80     7.13    75.82    99.92    84.59P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   64   +9      79.04     4.38    10.76     0.02     3.66    86.89    21.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            37   62  +18      75.67     4.13    19.93     0.00     0.57    69.12    19.36P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   61  +12      75.61     4.04    15.74     0.00     0.48    67.08    15.47P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   59   +9      71.05     3.81    10.55     0.00     0.01    22.58     5.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   58   +6      72.62     4.22     9.50     0.00     0.05    34.82     7.49P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        38   56  +11      68.30     3.80    12.97     0.00     0.00     8.16     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         38   55   -7      65.12     3.74    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   53   +2      64.77     4.00     1.02     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   36   51  +17      67.70     4.39    21.58     0.00     0.00     9.03     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     37   50   -7      62.80     4.09    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          37   48   -6      59.82     3.97    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool       38   43   -9      53.37     3.86   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -10      53.77     4.04   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    37   42  -12      53.02     4.01   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.96R    0.01  
Crewe            37   42  -16      51.18     3.81   -21.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.49R    0.06  
Northampton      35   38   -3      52.75     4.55    -3.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.02R    0.02  
Swindon          37   38   -7      50.84     4.14    -6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.23R    0.13  
Yeovil           36   38  -25      48.41     4.09   -29.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.16R    0.90  
Brighton         35   35  -13      46.02     4.38   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.25R    2.53  
Hereford         35   30  -24      39.96     4.17   -31.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.25R   26.82  
Cheltenham       36   28  -36      37.07     3.98   -45.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.45R   69.52  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.46     3.70    26.62    59.17    94.36    99.89    95.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           38   64   +6      74.01     3.69     4.68     1.30    15.79    71.13    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   63  +18      81.02     4.17    24.29    29.22    81.08    98.38    86.34P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             37   61  +19      74.52     4.07    20.98     2.64    26.21    77.76    39.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61  +14      76.41     3.90    18.85     4.17    39.91    88.67    52.94P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   61  +11      73.34     3.97    11.19     1.22    13.64    65.72    25.08P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   58  +16      69.77     3.68    17.47     0.06     3.08    34.72    12.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             38   58  +11      69.90     3.83    12.45     0.08     2.59    33.88     9.95P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           36   57  +15      73.17     4.28    18.79     1.91    17.53    67.05    31.53P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.48     4.02    19.73     0.01     0.45    13.97     4.41P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         35   52   +8      69.39     4.73    11.55     0.21     4.61    33.23    11.34P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   51   +0      62.57     3.94    -0.95     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         36   48   +2      63.23     4.32     4.43     0.00     0.04     3.10     0.77P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   44  -15      55.72     4.31   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         38   40  -14      48.63     3.49   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   39  +14      64.31     5.38    23.01     0.01     0.71    10.97     4.58P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         37   39  -28      47.31     3.75   -35.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26R    0.01  
Port_Vale            36   38  -18      47.01     3.97   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   37   37  -14      46.77     3.83   -17.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34R    0.00  
Bournemouth          38   34   +1      45.75     3.78     2.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.00  
Barnet               36   33  -21      44.13     4.22   -25.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.96R    0.08  
Chester              38   28  -35      35.27     3.50   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.72R    6.89  
Grimsby              38   27  -25      37.04     3.77   -26.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.65R    3.11  
Luton                37   16   -4      27.16     3.98    -5.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.02R   89.90  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 19 March 2009, Kettering vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        37   78  +30      92.98     4.13    34.08    80.75    99.93    85.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.76     3.40    28.73     6.33    97.05    33.16P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               35   66  +25      84.10     4.69    29.78     8.03    86.16    28.01P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +22      82.64     4.36    26.35     4.33    81.12    23.30P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   65  +15      76.30     3.81    15.49     0.05    22.95     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.26     4.44    13.20     0.08    25.20     4.68P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        34   59  +13      76.21     4.89    14.08     0.22    26.54     5.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              35   58  +20      76.71     4.57    25.79     0.14    33.88     8.79P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   58  +18      72.76     4.43    19.52     0.01     9.68     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            34   57  +11      74.79     4.72    13.20     0.06    17.28     4.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    37   51  +15      66.25     4.05    19.13     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   50   +5      65.06     4.31     6.91     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   36   50   -9      63.40     4.33    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham           36   46  -12      58.03     4.19   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury            37   45   -9      55.86     4.01   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Weymouth             37   42  -26      52.03     3.90   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.29R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.53     4.67     0.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.16     5.27    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Forest_Green         37   38  -13      49.96     3.96   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.04R    0.00  
Woking               37   37  -12      46.40     3.79   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.26R    0.00  
Barrow               36   36  -20      46.79     4.04   -24.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.61R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       36   35  -19      44.82     4.04   -24.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.07R    0.00  
Northwich            36   21  -30      31.53     4.05   -35.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.68R    3.99  
Lewes                38   17  -54      22.42     3.08   -62.30     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.01  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4