Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 March 2009 at 22:04:30 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2009, West_Ham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   65  +33      86.57     3.91    44.67    79.92    94.59    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   61  +33      80.09     3.69    42.96    10.45    54.33    98.97    99.88   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      80.18     3.72    38.76     9.63    50.93    98.57    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   52  +19      66.37     3.90    22.34     0.00     0.09     1.50    50.77    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   52  +12      66.01     3.98    14.65     0.00     0.06     0.93    40.63    98.86     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   48  +10      61.17     4.07    11.33     0.00     0.00     0.07     8.82    88.37     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        29   40   +0      51.44     3.96    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.54     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.53     4.07     2.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.51     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          29   37   +2      47.86     3.86     0.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.10R    0.00  
Man_City        29   35   +8      49.16     3.95    11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.07R    0.00  
Tottenham       29   35   +1      46.19     3.88    -0.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.56R    0.01  
Bolton          29   33  -12      43.92     3.97   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.12R    0.14  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.46     3.87   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.66R    0.30  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.73     3.89   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.60R    0.36  
Blackburn       29   30  -16      39.60     3.81   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.47R    2.36  
Newcastle       29   29  -11      38.61     3.80   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.05R    2.80  
Portsmouth      28   29  -15      40.50     4.27   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    21.78R    2.22  
Stoke           29   29  -19      40.00     4.06   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.41R    2.66  
Middlesbrough   29   27  -20      34.73     3.62   -26.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.34R   18.26  
West_Brom       29   23  -29      31.10     3.77   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.82R   70.88  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 March 2009, Cardiff vs Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    39   74  +23      86.68     3.45    27.75    68.13    89.16   100.00    91.90P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       39   71  +14      82.51     3.50    16.73    15.53    48.46    99.86    61.28P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          38   67  +30      81.33     3.82    34.98    12.55    43.04    99.66    62.88P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.57     3.76    20.41     0.52     4.09    87.64    25.26P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   63  +18      78.41     4.13    22.53     3.26    14.97    95.07    37.68P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          39   62   +7      71.81     3.58     7.21     0.01     0.22    51.71     8.57P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          39   60   +3      69.76     3.48     3.30     0.00     0.05    26.19     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     39   58   +7      68.12     3.55     7.85     0.00     0.01    18.40     3.56P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          39   57  +11      67.57     3.49    12.47     0.00     0.00    14.77     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          39   55   +8      65.58     3.44     9.53     0.00     0.00     5.38     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              39   53   -1      62.12     3.41    -1.54     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   38   50   +1      61.21     3.84     1.49     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        39   50   -9      58.77     3.47   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.23R    0.00  
Doncaster        39   49  -13      56.42     3.32   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.16R    0.00  
Coventry         37   47   -5      59.76     4.07    -4.30     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.34R    0.00  
Watford          38   46   -5      57.37     3.85    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.39R    0.00  
Derby            37   46   -5      57.40     4.07    -6.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.26R    0.00  
Blackpool        39   46  -12      54.83     3.46   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.34R    0.00  
Barnsley         37   43  -11      52.05     3.81   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.59R    0.08  
Plymouth         39   43  -13      51.63     3.37   -13.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.24R    0.05  
Norwich          39   42   -8      49.96     3.46   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.93R    0.34  
Nottm_Forest     39   41  -18      48.92     3.42   -20.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.92R    0.69  
Southampton      38   39  -16      47.78     3.68   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.83R    2.71  
Charlton         38   28  -24      36.71     3.71   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.77R   96.13  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Cheltenham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        38   81  +39      97.37     3.64    47.22    92.26    99.50   100.00    99.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   72  +20      84.52     3.81    22.75     0.64    20.25    99.50    41.65P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   67  +32      88.60     4.45    42.71     7.06    75.58    99.90    84.18P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   64   +9      78.98     4.37    10.70     0.03     3.49    86.35    21.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            37   62  +18      75.73     4.12    19.99     0.00     0.61    69.43    19.70P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   61  +12      75.67     4.05    15.86     0.00     0.51    67.37    15.69P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   59   +9      71.02     3.80    10.47     0.00     0.01    22.27     5.10P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   58   +6      72.65     4.21     9.59     0.00     0.04    35.07     7.43P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        38   56  +11      68.30     3.80    12.98     0.00     0.00     8.03     2.26P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         38   55   -7      65.15     3.75    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   53   +2      64.75     4.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   36   51  +17      67.75     4.43    21.68     0.00     0.00     9.24     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     37   50   -7      62.82     4.07    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          37   48   -6      59.84     4.00    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Hartlepool       38   43   -9      53.36     3.84   -10.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.96R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -10      53.81     4.07   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.99R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    37   42  -12      53.23     4.02   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.05R    0.01  
Crewe            37   42  -16      51.16     3.81   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.64R    0.04  
Northampton      35   38   -3      52.63     4.58    -3.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.81R    0.05  
Swindon          37   38   -7      50.83     4.12    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.95R    0.11  
Yeovil           36   38  -25      48.45     4.12   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.67R    0.99  
Brighton         35   35  -13      45.92     4.37   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.32R    2.36  
Hereford         35   30  -24      40.08     4.17   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.05R   25.44  
Cheltenham       36   28  -36      36.90     3.97   -45.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.43R   70.98  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.46     3.72    26.63    59.49    94.55    99.91    96.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           38   64   +6      73.98     3.69     4.65     1.22    15.65    71.14    25.38P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   63  +18      81.03     4.18    24.29    29.20    81.07    98.45    86.36P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             37   61  +19      74.54     4.08    21.02     2.62    26.65    78.14    40.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61  +14      76.39     3.90    18.83     4.26    39.87    88.87    52.79P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   61  +11      73.29     3.97    11.13     1.09    13.42    65.52    25.11P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   58  +16      69.78     3.66    17.46     0.08     3.07    34.56    12.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             38   58  +11      69.93     3.80    12.48     0.06     2.66    34.22    10.02P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           36   57  +15      73.07     4.32    18.62     1.80    17.22    66.24    30.84P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.52     4.02    19.78     0.01     0.57    14.28     4.60P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         35   52   +8      69.39     4.72    11.54     0.19     4.56    33.29    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   51   +0      62.59     3.97    -0.92     0.00     0.01     1.62     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         36   48   +2      63.25     4.32     4.49     0.00     0.05     3.30     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   44  -15      55.71     4.31   -21.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         38   40  -14      48.69     3.48   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   39  +14      64.16     5.37    22.76     0.00     0.66    10.44     4.24P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         37   39  -28      47.34     3.77   -35.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Port_Vale            36   38  -18      47.05     3.98   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   37   37  -14      46.73     3.78   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Bournemouth          38   34   +1      45.71     3.78     2.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.00  
Barnet               36   33  -21      44.19     4.23   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.93R    0.06  
Chester              38   28  -35      35.29     3.50   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.09R    7.13  
Grimsby              38   27  -25      37.03     3.74   -26.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.67R    3.24  
Luton                37   16   -4      27.24     4.02    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.78R   89.56  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Barrow vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        37   78  +30      92.99     4.14    34.09    80.67    99.90    85.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.73     3.42    28.67     6.38    96.97    32.96P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               35   66  +25      84.10     4.64    29.74     8.07    86.30    27.93P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +22      82.48     4.37    26.12     4.12    79.94    22.46P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.27     4.38    13.21     0.07    24.89     4.50P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   62  +14      74.20     4.05    13.85     0.02    12.14     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        34   59  +13      76.14     4.90    13.98     0.19    26.15     5.63P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              35   58  +20      76.64     4.60    25.71     0.13    33.61     8.65P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   58  +18      72.71     4.45    19.47     0.02     9.48     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            33   57  +12      76.77     5.00    15.08     0.35    30.42     7.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    37   51  +15      66.13     4.05    18.99     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   50   +5      65.06     4.29     6.92     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   36   50   -9      63.46     4.32    -9.54     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           36   46  -12      57.99     4.16   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury            37   45   -9      55.87     4.02   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Weymouth             37   42  -26      52.04     3.87   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.29R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.63     4.66     0.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.31     5.26    -4.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Forest_Green         37   38  -13      50.01     3.98   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.27R    0.00  
Woking               37   37  -12      46.38     3.78   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.40R    0.00  
Barrow               36   36  -20      46.78     3.99   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.21R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       36   35  -19      44.84     4.06   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.07R    0.00  
Northwich            36   21  -30      31.54     4.05   -35.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.65R    3.66  
Lewes                38   17  -54      22.31     3.06   -62.49     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.34  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4