Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 17 March 2009 at 22:04:30 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2009, West_Ham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   65  +33      86.66     3.90    44.78    80.68    94.90    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   61  +33      80.08     3.72    42.95    10.18    54.61    98.94    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      80.07     3.77    38.59     9.13    50.28    98.40    99.85   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   52  +19      66.34     3.91    22.30     0.01     0.13     1.67    50.29    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   52  +12      66.09     3.97    14.77     0.00     0.08     0.99    41.40    98.91     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   48  +10      61.18     4.06    11.34     0.00     0.00     0.06     8.45    88.55     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        29   40   +0      51.42     3.98    -1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     4.61     0.01R    0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.49     4.06     2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.28     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          29   37   +2      47.86     3.84     0.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.10R    0.00  
Man_City        29   35   +8      49.15     3.95    10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.97     0.09R    0.00  
Tottenham       29   35   +1      46.20     3.89    -0.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.57R    0.01  
Bolton          29   33  -12      43.91     3.96   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.15R    0.13  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.47     3.87   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.58R    0.27  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.78     3.92   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.48R    0.39  
Blackburn       29   30  -16      39.65     3.82   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.88R    2.36  
Newcastle       29   29  -11      38.64     3.80   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.67R    2.81  
Portsmouth      28   29  -15      40.48     4.26   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    21.88R    2.14  
Stoke           29   29  -19      39.97     4.09   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.95R    2.75  
Middlesbrough   29   27  -20      34.70     3.61   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.61R   18.52  
West_Brom       29   23  -29      31.09     3.79   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.04R   70.63  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Barnsley vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    39   74  +23      86.76     3.47    27.87    68.92    89.78   100.00    92.45P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       39   71  +14      82.48     3.51    16.68    15.09    48.52    99.81    61.28P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          38   67  +30      81.45     3.81    35.11    12.90    45.16    99.59    64.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.47     3.78    20.26     0.49     4.15    85.45    24.74P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          39   62   +7      71.89     3.61     7.33     0.00     0.25    50.32     8.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          36   60  +17      77.57     4.40    22.75     2.60    12.06    91.19    34.53P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          39   60   +3      69.78     3.51     3.37     0.00     0.05    24.94     4.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     39   58   +7      68.09     3.54     7.81     0.00     0.01    16.79     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          38   57  +12      69.01     3.81    13.61     0.00     0.03    25.99     5.73P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          39   55   +8      65.56     3.47     9.50     0.00     0.00     4.94     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   38   50   +1      61.29     3.85     1.62     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.11P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              38   50   -2      60.34     3.69    -2.70     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        39   50   -9      58.74     3.48   -10.11     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.22R    0.00  
Doncaster        39   49  -13      56.40     3.32   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.14R    0.00  
Coventry         37   47   -5      59.66     4.04    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.35R    0.00  
Watford          37   46   -4      58.14     4.07    -4.51     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.11R    0.00  
Derby            37   46   -5      57.31     4.07    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.27R    0.00  
Blackpool        39   46  -12      54.79     3.44   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.35R    0.00  
Barnsley         37   43  -11      51.94     3.80   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.39R    0.10  
Plymouth         39   43  -13      51.66     3.36   -13.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.25R    0.07  
Norwich          39   42   -8      50.01     3.44   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.62R    0.34  
Nottm_Forest     39   41  -18      48.94     3.43   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.94R    0.74  
Southampton      38   39  -16      47.81     3.69   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.55R    2.53  
Charlton         38   28  -24      36.67     3.70   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   96.22  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Cheltenham vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        38   81  +39      97.45     3.62    47.33    96.48    99.68   100.00    99.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   72  +20      84.43     3.81    22.63     0.77    28.69    99.40    46.96P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          36   67  +31      86.43     4.22    40.37     2.64    60.09    99.74    74.12P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         37   67  +10      81.31     4.15    12.78     0.11     9.86    95.12    28.43P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            37   62  +18      75.70     4.10    19.97     0.00     0.83    67.75    18.84P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   61  +12      75.75     4.03    16.00     0.00     0.77    66.48    15.44P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   59   +9      71.07     3.80    10.55     0.00     0.00    21.30     4.91P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   58   +6      72.66     4.20     9.56     0.00     0.08    32.65     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        38   56  +11      68.25     3.78    12.90     0.00     0.00     6.97     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         38   55   -7      65.15     3.75    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   53   +2      64.78     4.01     1.04     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   36   51  +17      67.76     4.38    21.69     0.00     0.00     8.13     2.40P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          38   51   -3      61.41     3.72    -3.92     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     37   50   -7      62.82     4.06    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool       38   43   -9      53.36     3.83   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.04R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -10      53.76     4.03   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.26R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    37   42  -12      53.03     3.99   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.52R    0.01  
Crewe            37   42  -16      51.12     3.83   -21.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.22R    0.04  
Northampton      35   38   -3      52.77     4.58    -3.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.06R    0.05  
Swindon          37   38   -7      50.93     4.14    -6.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.35R    0.09  
Yeovil           36   38  -25      48.55     4.10   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.67R    0.72  
Brighton         36   35  -16      44.59     4.03   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.58R    3.65  
Hereford         35   30  -24      40.03     4.18   -31.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.89R   25.39  
Cheltenham       36   28  -36      36.91     3.95   -45.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.41R   70.04  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            38   70  +23      83.52     3.74    26.72    59.66    94.56    99.88    96.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           38   64   +6      73.99     3.69     4.68     1.33    15.81    71.50    25.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   63  +18      81.00     4.17    24.23    28.82    80.66    98.45    86.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             37   61  +19      74.62     4.05    21.12     2.58    26.74    79.31    40.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61  +14      76.48     3.90    18.94     4.38    40.88    89.44    53.76P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   61  +11      73.33     3.96    11.22     1.13    13.28    66.35    25.15P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   58  +16      69.83     3.70    17.54     0.08     3.21    36.19    12.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             38   58  +11      69.97     3.82    12.55     0.07     2.46    35.05    10.02P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           36   57  +15      73.08     4.30    18.65     1.75    17.13    67.01    31.25P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.50     4.02    19.72     0.00     0.50    14.42     4.60P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         35   52   +8      69.35     4.73    11.45     0.19     4.64    33.64    11.43P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   51   +0      62.61     3.96    -0.90     0.00     0.01     1.66     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         36   48   +2      63.33     4.36     4.57     0.00     0.06     3.72     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            36   47  -14      58.58     4.16   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         38   40  -14      48.74     3.53   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Rotherham            33   39  +13      61.23     5.17    19.36     0.00     0.07     3.23     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         37   39  -28      47.36     3.77   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Port_Vale            36   38  -18      47.01     3.96   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   37   37  -14      46.74     3.79   -17.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Bournemouth          38   34   +1      45.72     3.80     2.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.00  
Barnet               36   33  -21      44.11     4.23   -25.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.89R    0.07  
Chester              38   28  -35      35.21     3.50   -41.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.05R    7.15  
Grimsby              38   27  -25      36.97     3.76   -26.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.54R    3.37  
Luton                37   16   -4      27.20     4.01    -5.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.01R   89.40  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2009, Barrow vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        36   75  +25      91.27     4.46    28.96    70.24    99.43    76.74P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        39   73  +24      85.75     3.42    28.75    11.76    97.06    37.31P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +22      82.67     4.40    26.41     7.13    81.28    25.39P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      83.17     4.88    27.80     9.18    80.99    27.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.28     4.42    13.26     0.21    25.57     4.92P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   62  +14      74.29     4.03    14.02     0.04    12.89     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        34   59  +13      76.23     4.92    14.15     0.49    27.45     6.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              35   58  +20      76.68     4.59    25.71     0.30    34.69     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   58  +18      72.72     4.45    19.48     0.03    10.04     2.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            33   57  +12      76.67     5.00    14.93     0.62    30.34     8.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    37   51  +15      66.10     4.07    18.94     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   50   +5      65.01     4.32     6.87     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   35   49   -9      64.20     4.64    -9.01     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           36   46  -12      58.05     4.17   -14.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury            36   44   -9      55.95     4.33   -11.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Weymouth             36   42  -21      53.45     4.18   -25.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.60R    0.00  
York                 35   38   -3      55.57     4.69     0.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.20     5.29    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Forest_Green         37   38  -13      49.86     3.96   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.13R    0.00  
Woking               37   37  -12      46.39     3.78   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.12R    0.00  
Barrow               36   36  -20      46.67     4.01   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.23R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       35   35  -16      45.66     4.24   -22.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.84R    0.00  
Northwich            36   21  -30      31.56     4.06   -35.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R    3.54  
Lewes                38   17  -54      22.28     3.05   -62.53     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.46  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4