Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 March 2009 at 22:04:36 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2009, West_Ham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   65  +33      86.62     3.90    44.71    80.20    94.72    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   61  +33      80.15     3.71    43.05    10.36    54.92    98.93    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      80.15     3.75    38.73     9.44    50.20    98.52    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   52  +19      66.34     3.90    22.28     0.00     0.11     1.53    50.13    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   52  +12      66.12     3.97    14.85     0.00     0.05     1.03    41.60    99.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   48  +10      61.14     4.06    11.28     0.00     0.00     0.05     8.44    88.24     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        29   40   +0      51.38     3.98    -1.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.45     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.61     4.08     3.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.80     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          29   37   +2      47.80     3.85     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.11R    0.00  
Man_City        29   35   +8      49.17     3.93    11.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.87     0.08R    0.00  
Tottenham       29   35   +1      46.17     3.87    -0.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.55R    0.00  
Bolton          29   33  -12      43.92     3.97   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.03R    0.11  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.42     3.87   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.63R    0.31  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.75     3.91   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.43R    0.40  
Blackburn       29   30  -16      39.61     3.83   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.39R    2.44  
Newcastle       29   29  -11      38.58     3.79   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.04R    2.79  
Portsmouth      28   29  -15      40.47     4.26   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    22.23R    2.12  
Stoke           29   29  -19      40.01     4.07   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.26R    2.64  
Middlesbrough   29   27  -20      34.78     3.62   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.97R   17.58  
West_Brom       29   23  -29      31.04     3.75   -36.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.27R   71.60  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 March 2009, Bristol_City vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    39   74  +23      86.71     3.47    27.82    71.32    91.17   100.00    93.46P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       39   71  +14      82.48     3.50    16.68    16.12    54.05    99.82    65.34P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          37   64  +29      80.17     4.08    34.66     9.19    35.88    98.57    57.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.53     3.76    20.35     0.62     4.95    85.21    25.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          38   61   +7      71.89     3.87     6.73     0.03     0.57    48.79     8.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          36   60  +17      77.41     4.38    22.55     2.72    13.25    90.11    34.87P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          39   60   +3      69.81     3.51     3.41     0.00     0.08    24.49     3.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     39   58   +7      68.12     3.55     7.84     0.00     0.01    16.35     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          38   57  +12      69.02     3.78    13.63     0.00     0.04    24.80     5.53P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          38   54   +8      66.37     3.81    10.17     0.00     0.00     9.45     1.98P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   37   50   +3      62.95     4.13     4.04     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.38P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              38   50   -2      60.35     3.71    -2.72     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        39   50   -9      58.74     3.49   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.18R    0.00  
Doncaster        38   49  -12      57.29     3.58   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.54R    0.00  
Coventry         37   47   -5      59.72     4.06    -4.35     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.29R    0.00  
Watford          37   46   -4      58.17     4.08    -4.51     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.87R    0.00  
Derby            37   46   -5      57.45     4.06    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.08R    0.00  
Blackpool        39   46  -12      54.82     3.44   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.44R    0.01  
Plymouth         39   43  -13      51.70     3.38   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.34R    0.04  
Norwich          39   42   -8      49.98     3.44   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.71R    0.33  
Nottm_Forest     39   41  -18      48.98     3.41   -20.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.22R    0.63  
Barnsley         36   40  -13      49.89     4.04   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.52R    0.61  
Southampton      38   39  -16      47.76     3.69   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.01R    2.59  
Charlton         38   28  -24      36.65     3.69   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.77R   95.79  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Brighton vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        38   81  +39      97.34     3.62    47.14    92.18    99.44   100.00    99.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   72  +20      84.60     3.83    22.89     0.80    21.14    99.46    42.15P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   67  +32      88.56     4.45    42.61     6.99    74.82    99.88    83.82P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   64   +9      78.92     4.40    10.62     0.03     3.52    84.30    20.61P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            37   62  +18      75.73     4.14    20.00     0.01     0.57    67.19    18.89P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   59  +10      73.17     4.11    12.67     0.00     0.08    39.75     9.52P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       36   58   +9      74.52     4.30    13.60     0.00     0.37    52.80    11.82P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   58   +6      72.49     4.18     9.34     0.00     0.05    31.93     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        38   56  +11      68.28     3.79    12.94     0.00     0.00     7.11     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         37   55   -4      66.80     4.03    -4.74     0.00     0.00     2.97     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   53   +2      64.82     4.02     1.11     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   35   50  +17      68.60     4.66    22.44     0.00     0.01    12.92     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     37   50   -7      62.76     4.07    -6.50     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          37   48   -6      59.90     4.01    -6.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool       38   43   -9      53.25     3.82   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.14R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -10      53.77     4.04   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.32R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    37   42  -12      53.17     4.04   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.41R    0.01  
Crewe            36   41  -16      51.24     4.12   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.96R    0.06  
Northampton      35   38   -3      52.61     4.58    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.66R    0.02  
Yeovil           36   38  -25      48.43     4.11   -29.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.72R    0.52  
Swindon          36   35  -10      48.92     4.42    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.16R    0.33  
Brighton         35   35  -13      46.05     4.36   -19.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.56R    1.35  
Hereford         34   30  -21      41.08     4.42   -29.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.26R   12.43  
Cheltenham       35   25  -37      34.65     4.21   -47.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R   85.27  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Aldershot vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            37   70  +24      85.76     3.96    29.02    74.72    97.98    99.97    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   63  +18      81.08     4.20    24.35    19.46    82.06    98.56    87.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             37   61  +19      74.78     4.07    21.36     1.60    29.23    82.12    43.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61  +14      76.49     3.91    18.94     2.39    42.37    90.42    54.78P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   61  +11      73.20     3.95    10.98     0.68    13.53    68.03    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           37   61   +5      72.21     3.98     3.36     0.34     9.43    56.60    17.69P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   58  +16      69.72     3.68    17.41     0.04     3.23    38.14    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             37   58  +14      71.57     4.08    15.93     0.25     8.02    55.35    19.62P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           35   54  +14      71.20     4.56    17.32     0.49    10.59    52.34    22.03P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.36     4.05    19.50     0.00     0.61    15.66     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   51   +0      62.62     3.97    -0.88     0.00     0.02     2.20     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         34   49   +7      66.66     4.91     8.83     0.04     1.72    18.89     5.63P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   48   +3      65.03     4.60     6.09     0.00     0.42     9.77     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   44  -15      55.74     4.32   -21.12     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         37   40  -13      50.21     3.82   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   39  +14      64.22     5.35    22.91     0.01     0.79    11.90     4.82P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         37   39  -28      47.40     3.79   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Port_Vale            35   38  -16      48.39     4.26   -23.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   36   34  -16      45.14     4.06   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.31R    0.00  
Barnet               36   33  -21      44.17     4.22   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.07R    0.05  
Bournemouth          37   31   -2      43.62     4.05    -1.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.00R    0.04  
Chester              38   28  -35      35.28     3.49   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.05R    4.98  
Grimsby              37   27  -24      38.00     3.99   -26.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.59R    2.05  
Luton                36   13   -5      26.04     4.24    -5.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.65R   92.86  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Altrincham vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        36   75  +25      91.34     4.40    29.03    73.40    99.60    79.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        38   70  +22      84.45     3.70    27.20     8.03    93.99    33.08P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +22      82.58     4.39    26.29     7.27    82.22    26.15P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      83.16     4.90    27.76     9.75    82.44    27.94P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.30     4.40    13.28     0.23    27.82     5.22P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   62  +14      74.29     4.05    14.03     0.05    14.20     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        34   59  +13      76.15     4.88    14.03     0.41    28.75     6.63P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   58  +18      72.70     4.45    19.44     0.03    10.83     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              34   55  +19      75.69     4.84    25.72     0.25    29.94     8.15P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            32   54  +11      76.15     5.15    15.56     0.57    29.85     7.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    37   51  +15      66.13     4.06    18.99     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   50   +5      64.98     4.31     6.82     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   35   49   -9      64.27     4.70    -8.87     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           36   46  -12      57.99     4.15   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Salisbury            36   44   -9      55.99     4.35   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Weymouth             36   42  -21      53.34     4.13   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.88R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.26     5.29    -4.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.86     4.95     0.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.98R    0.00  
Woking               37   37  -12      46.43     3.80   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.94R    0.00  
Forest_Green         36   37  -13      50.30     4.24   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.93R    0.00  
Barrow               35   36  -18      47.78     4.25   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.05R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       35   35  -16      45.68     4.27   -22.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.86R    0.00  
Northwich            35   21  -29      32.33     4.26   -35.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.52R    3.66  
Lewes                37   17  -53      22.65     3.19   -63.22     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.34  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4