Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 14 March 2009 at 22:04:43 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   65  +33      86.57     3.88    44.63    81.47    95.35    99.91    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   61  +28      80.13     3.75    38.69     9.90    54.73    97.35    99.67   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.39     3.96    43.43     8.61    49.36    97.00    99.58   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   52  +19      66.39     3.92    22.38     0.01     0.17     1.83    37.96    99.12     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.25     4.24    16.98     0.02     0.39     3.82    56.75    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Everton         29   48  +10      61.13     4.07    11.27     0.00     0.00     0.08     5.93    85.02     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.73     4.23     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     7.85     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           29   38   +1      51.62     4.05     3.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     5.07     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          29   37   +2      47.78     3.84     0.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.08R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.82     4.14    10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.80     0.06R    0.00  
Bolton          29   33  -12      43.86     3.96   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.03R    0.15  
Hull            29   33  -16      42.37     3.85   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.64R    0.33  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.76     4.11    -2.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     3.66R    0.15  
Sunderland      29   32   -9      41.70     3.89   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.56R    0.39  
Blackburn       29   30  -16      39.69     3.81   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.99R    2.07  
Newcastle       29   29  -11      38.61     3.80   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.42R    2.63  
Portsmouth      28   29  -15      40.54     4.24   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.96R    1.85  
Stoke           29   29  -19      39.95     4.06   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.46R    2.50  
Middlesbrough   29   27  -20      34.72     3.61   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.08R   16.65  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.67     4.00   -37.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.04R   73.28  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Barnsley vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    39   74  +23      86.74     3.46    27.87    70.79    91.08   100.00    93.36P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       39   71  +14      82.52     3.49    16.74    15.89    52.71    99.80    64.33P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          37   64  +29      80.14     4.10    34.62     8.86    34.44    98.47    56.52P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        38   63  +18      75.59     3.74    20.47     0.58     4.85    85.36    25.63P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          38   61   +7      71.87     3.84     6.70     0.02     0.51    47.81     8.05P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          39   60   +3      69.67     3.50     3.22     0.00     0.06    22.77     3.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   59  +17      77.84     4.66    22.66     3.86    16.24    90.28    36.81P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          38   57  +12      69.02     3.78    13.65     0.00     0.06    24.58     5.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     38   57   +7      68.50     3.82     7.90     0.00     0.04    19.81     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          38   54   +8      66.34     3.77    10.14     0.00     0.00     9.05     1.85P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   37   50   +3      62.93     4.10     4.02     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.33P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              38   50   -2      60.33     3.69    -2.72     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        39   50   -9      58.72     3.47   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Doncaster        38   49  -12      57.38     3.58   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.48R    0.00  
Coventry         37   47   -5      59.73     4.04    -4.34     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.27R    0.00  
Watford          37   46   -4      58.10     4.05    -4.62     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.93R    0.00  
Derby            37   46   -5      57.42     4.06    -6.66     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.14R    0.00  
Blackpool        39   46  -12      54.85     3.45   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.35R    0.01  
Plymouth         39   43  -13      51.69     3.37   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.38R    0.05  
Norwich          39   42   -8      49.96     3.46   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.14R    0.32  
Nottm_Forest     39   41  -18      48.93     3.41   -20.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.62R    0.63  
Barnsley         36   40  -13      49.87     4.03   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.47R    0.59  
Southampton      38   39  -16      47.81     3.66   -19.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.30R    2.46  
Charlton         38   28  -24      36.70     3.70   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R   95.94  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Brighton vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        38   81  +39      97.34     3.63    47.14    92.21    99.55   100.00    99.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     38   72  +20      84.60     3.78    22.92     0.69    20.98    99.43    42.27P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   67  +32      88.58     4.46    42.67     7.07    74.92    99.87    83.89P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   64   +9      79.03     4.39    10.74     0.03     3.64    84.99    21.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            37   62  +18      75.65     4.16    19.89     0.00     0.51    65.79    17.92P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   59  +10      73.20     4.10    12.74     0.00     0.06    39.86     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       36   58   +9      74.53     4.28    13.60     0.00     0.29    53.02    11.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   58   +6      72.55     4.21     9.43     0.00     0.05    32.63     6.90P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        38   56  +11      68.35     3.79    13.05     0.00     0.00     7.29     2.00P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         37   55   -4      66.81     4.06    -4.72     0.00     0.00     2.96     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   53   +2      64.82     4.02     1.14     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   35   50  +17      68.49     4.66    22.28     0.00     0.01    12.55     3.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     37   50   -7      62.74     4.11    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          37   48   -6      59.83     4.00    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.11R    0.00  
Hartlepool       38   43   -9      53.29     3.85   -10.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.32R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -10      53.78     4.07   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.25R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    37   42  -12      53.11     4.04   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.55R    0.00  
Crewe            36   41  -16      51.27     4.11   -22.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    0.06  
Northampton      35   38   -3      52.68     4.60    -3.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.35R    0.04  
Yeovil           36   38  -25      48.39     4.08   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.92R    0.47  
Swindon          36   35  -10      48.87     4.37   -10.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.36R    0.36  
Brighton         35   35  -13      46.07     4.40   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.31R    1.33  
Hereford         34   30  -21      40.98     4.45   -29.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.47R   12.63  
Cheltenham       35   25  -37      34.67     4.18   -47.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R   85.10  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Aldershot vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            37   70  +24      85.76     3.98    29.00    74.71    97.96    99.98    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   63  +18      81.08     4.21    24.37    19.30    82.09    98.67    87.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             37   61  +19      74.80     4.09    21.40     1.66    29.17    81.98    42.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   61  +14      76.52     3.88    18.97     2.35    42.55    90.82    55.10P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   61  +11      73.19     3.98    10.99     0.72    13.57    67.62    25.26P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           37   61   +5      72.22     4.00     3.41     0.38     9.38    56.48    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   58  +16      69.65     3.68    17.28     0.04     3.24    37.03    12.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             37   58  +14      71.63     4.10    15.99     0.29     8.22    56.28    20.02P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           35   54  +14      71.19     4.58    17.33     0.51    10.22    52.28    21.76P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   52  +16      66.40     4.03    19.57     0.00     0.54    15.61     4.88P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   51   +0      62.68     3.96    -0.80     0.00     0.02     2.22     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         34   49   +7      66.78     4.93     9.02     0.04     1.88    19.64     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   48   +3      64.91     4.63     5.94     0.00     0.42     9.64     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   44  -15      55.78     4.28   -21.09     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         37   40  -13      50.23     3.80   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   39  +14      64.19     5.35    22.87     0.00     0.74    11.72     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield         37   39  -28      47.35     3.78   -35.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Port_Vale            35   38  -16      48.38     4.30   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   36   34  -16      45.10     4.05   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    0.01  
Barnet               36   33  -21      44.13     4.23   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.17R    0.04  
Bournemouth          37   31   -2      43.49     4.06    -1.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.20R    0.06  
Chester              38   28  -35      35.35     3.50   -40.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.42R    4.96  
Grimsby              37   27  -24      38.04     4.01   -26.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.80R    1.93  
Luton                36   13   -5      25.99     4.25    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.58R   92.99  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2009, Altrincham vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        36   75  +25      91.30     4.42    29.00    72.84    99.55    78.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        38   70  +22      84.46     3.72    27.21     7.90    93.40    32.48P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +22      82.60     4.39    26.30     7.54    82.54    26.39P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      83.21     4.90    27.86     9.95    82.46    28.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.37     4.41    13.35     0.26    28.29     5.52P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   62  +14      74.24     4.06    13.94     0.04    14.01     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        34   59  +13      76.24     4.89    14.14     0.46    28.84     6.72P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   58  +18      72.63     4.45    19.36     0.03    10.66     2.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              34   55  +19      75.67     4.82    25.67     0.29    29.65     8.08P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            32   54  +11      76.23     5.17    15.65     0.68    30.29     8.38P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    37   51  +15      66.16     4.07    19.05     0.00     0.13     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   50   +5      65.02     4.32     6.86     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   35   49   -9      64.18     4.63    -9.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           36   46  -12      58.05     4.16   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury            36   44   -9      56.02     4.31   -11.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30R    0.00  
Weymouth             36   42  -21      53.39     4.19   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.88R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.09     5.28    -5.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.93     4.96     0.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.91R    0.00  
Woking               37   37  -12      46.42     3.79   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.59R    0.00  
Forest_Green         36   37  -13      50.25     4.27   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.20R    0.00  
Barrow               35   36  -18      47.76     4.23   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.74R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       35   35  -16      45.61     4.24   -22.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.39R    0.00  
Northwich            35   21  -29      32.39     4.31   -35.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.45R    3.55  
Lewes                37   17  -53      22.64     3.17   -63.27     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.45  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4