Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 13 March 2009 at 22:04:33 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Fulham vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.44     3.95    49.70    94.41    99.04    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.41     3.95    43.43     3.79    66.35    97.75    99.78   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.44     4.05    34.03     1.79    33.73    92.84    99.02   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.20     4.19    17.00     0.01     0.68     6.97    65.09    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.04     4.15    18.87     0.00     0.20     2.32    30.15    98.29     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.10     4.30    10.13     0.00     0.00     0.13     5.81    82.21     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.79     4.21     0.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    11.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.63     4.10    10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.90     0.10R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.47     4.30     1.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.75     0.16R    0.00  
Fulham          28   34   +0      45.62     4.06    -2.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45     1.37R    0.02  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.59     4.25   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.55R    0.05  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.70     4.11    -2.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     4.77R    0.12  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      42.98     4.14   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     7.66R    0.22  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.91     4.14   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    11.38R    0.38  
Blackburn       28   30  -12      40.82     4.07   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.07R    1.29  
Stoke           28   29  -17      40.99     4.29   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    22.06R    1.73  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      39.06     4.13   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.72R    2.65  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.96     4.52   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    23.07R    2.38  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.82     3.87   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.59R   17.26  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.59     3.95   -37.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.49R   73.89  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Burnley vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    38   71  +22      86.11     3.66    28.70    61.31    87.07    99.99    90.42P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       38   68  +12      80.70     3.78    14.51     9.39    31.73    98.97    47.55P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          36   64  +30      82.51     4.30    37.11    24.31    60.36    99.55    73.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        37   60  +16      74.33     4.02    18.97     0.49     3.34    77.96    22.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   59  +17      78.00     4.63    22.88     4.44    16.74    91.66    38.73P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          37   58   +2      70.29     4.12     1.82     0.02     0.26    34.10     5.47P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          37   57  +14      71.27     4.02    16.96     0.03     0.43    51.24    12.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     38   57   +7      68.53     3.82     7.95     0.00     0.02    22.40     4.67P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          38   57   +2      68.39     3.79     2.72     0.00     0.04    17.83     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          37   51   +7      63.88     4.00     7.81     0.00     0.00     3.85     0.81P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              37   49   -2      60.73     3.95    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        38   49   -9      58.55     3.75   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.45R    0.00  
Doncaster        37   49  -10      58.70     3.84   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.33R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   47   +1      60.28     4.35     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.12P    0.17R    0.00  
Coventry         36   47   -4      60.73     4.32    -3.86     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.12P    0.23R    0.00  
Derby            36   46   -3      58.44     4.27    -5.09     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.80R    0.00  
Watford          36   45   -4      58.99     4.36    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.99R    0.00  
Plymouth         38   43  -12      52.97     3.68   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.15R    0.06  
Blackpool        38   43  -13      52.75     3.69   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.74R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     38   41  -13      50.28     3.72   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.44R    0.44  
Barnsley         35   40  -12      51.51     4.31   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.98R    0.34  
Norwich          38   39   -9      48.62     3.71   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.16R    1.50  
Southampton      37   38  -16      48.23     3.97   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.91R    2.96  
Charlton         37   28  -23      37.07     3.87   -28.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.57R   94.59  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Tranmere vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        37   78  +38      95.92     3.93    46.53    90.67    99.11   100.00    99.42P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   69  +19      83.48     4.07    22.77     1.18    22.11    98.01    42.01P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   64  +28      87.05     4.74    38.55     7.73    67.63    99.33    78.47P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         35   64  +10      80.09     4.63    11.40     0.41     8.67    87.91    25.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            36   59  +17      74.67     4.40    19.91     0.00     0.75    54.87    15.47P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.10     4.39    13.64     0.00     0.55    46.66    11.61P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       35   57   +9      75.11     4.59    13.96     0.02     1.07    55.47    12.74P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        37   56  +12      70.49     4.06    15.17     0.00     0.02    17.91     4.75P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         36   56   +8      71.75     4.36    11.00     0.00     0.09    26.60     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   53   +3      67.12     4.31     3.52     0.00     0.00     4.83     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         36   52   -5      65.08     4.32    -5.86     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     36   50   -5      64.15     4.32    -4.34     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          36   48   -1      61.93     4.26    -0.61     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   34   47  +12      66.10     4.97    15.98     0.00     0.01     5.64     1.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool       37   43   -7      55.38     4.16    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.62R    0.00  
Carlisle         36   41  -10      53.94     4.35   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   39  -13      50.50     4.20   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.65R    0.03  
Northampton      34   38   -2      53.65     4.83    -3.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.24R    0.01  
Crewe            35   38  -17      48.91     4.32   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.48R    0.18  
Yeovil           35   38  -20      50.22     4.44   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.70R    0.11  
Swindon          35   35   -9      50.08     4.63    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.41R    0.10  
Brighton         34   32  -18      43.56     4.53   -26.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.02R    2.32  
Hereford         33   30  -20      42.34     4.68   -28.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.95R    4.52  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.15     4.39   -51.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   92.73  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Chesterfield vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            36   69  +24      86.42     4.16    29.38    74.12    97.09    99.95    97.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              35   62  +18      81.16     4.35    24.00    17.51    76.27    98.03    82.89P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             36   61  +20      76.49     4.33    22.91     3.14    37.63    87.22    50.47P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 36   60  +14      76.87     4.17    19.03     2.56    37.56    89.10    50.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           36   60   +5      72.56     4.22     3.44     0.40     8.83    55.37    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             36   58  +15      73.01     4.35    17.04     0.62    11.68    63.60    24.17P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   58  +10      71.59     4.22    10.05     0.26     6.00    47.85    14.86P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   57  +16      70.05     3.96    17.36     0.04     3.36    37.57    12.89P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           34   54  +16      73.44     4.81    20.62     1.32    18.28    67.42    32.54P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            36   51  +16      66.61     4.29    19.35     0.00     0.60    15.65     4.84P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   48   +7      67.27     5.17     9.28     0.05     1.96    21.11     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   48   -1      61.54     4.25    -1.05     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   47   +3      65.26     4.87     5.94     0.00     0.52    10.43     2.92P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            34   41  -16      54.17     4.59   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         36   39  -13      51.04     4.11   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         36   39  -26      48.82     4.07   -32.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Rotherham            31   36  +13      62.08     5.63    21.19     0.00     0.21     5.54     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   35  -18      45.81     4.41   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   35   33  -16      45.13     4.30   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.72R    0.06  
Barnet               35   33  -20      45.15     4.46   -24.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.55R    0.08  
Bournemouth          36   28   -4      41.61     4.31    -3.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.36R    0.62  
Chester              37   27  -35      35.73     3.79   -41.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.49R    8.03  
Grimsby              36   26  -24      38.39     4.28   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.72R    3.76  
Luton                35   13   -4      27.33     4.55    -5.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.10R   87.43  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Ebbsfleet_United vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        35   75  +26      93.78     4.64    31.72    85.58    99.85    88.63P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        37   67  +19      83.64     3.93    25.45     3.46    88.47    27.18P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      83.01     4.89    27.49     5.81    80.57    24.51P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              35   63  +19      81.47     4.63    24.01     3.20    72.18    20.31P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.49     4.43    13.57     0.10    27.81     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.98     4.29    11.39     0.02     8.94     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         35   57  +18      73.19     4.74    19.61     0.03    13.69     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        33   56  +12      75.59     5.14    14.56     0.25    25.21     6.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              33   54  +19      76.45     5.09    26.19     0.26    34.72     9.46P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            31   54  +12      78.70     5.48    18.24     1.30    48.19    13.63P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    36   50  +15      66.28     4.34    18.68     0.00     0.29     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            35   47   +2      63.42     4.57     3.97     0.00     0.05     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.67     4.87   -11.44     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           35   43  -16      55.90     4.42   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.00  
Weymouth             35   42  -17      55.02     4.48   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.37R    0.00  
Salisbury            35   41  -10      53.34     4.52   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.70R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.20     5.29    -5.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.52     4.95     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.37R    0.00  
Forest_Green         35   37  -10      51.63     4.51   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.38R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.34     4.05   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.82R    0.00  
Barrow               34   36  -15      48.61     4.48   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.63R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       34   35  -13      47.02     4.53   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.10R    0.00  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.08     4.46   -33.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.11R    3.97  
Lewes                36   17  -52      23.15     3.36   -63.71     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.03  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4