Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 March 2009 at 22:04:36 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Fulham vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.42     3.95    49.66    94.45    99.07    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.30     3.97    43.28     3.81    65.51    97.52    99.72   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.43     4.03    34.07     1.73    34.35    92.55    99.02   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.27     4.20    17.08     0.01     0.89     7.55    65.23    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.09     4.14    18.94     0.00     0.18     2.27    30.20    98.38     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.03     4.33    10.08     0.00     0.00     0.12     5.65    81.51     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.77     4.27     0.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    11.41     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.67     4.10    10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.10     0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.60     4.30     1.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.93     0.15R    0.00  
Fulham          28   34   +0      45.68     4.09    -2.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47     1.44R    0.01  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.60     4.24   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.52R    0.06  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.77     4.09    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     4.54R    0.15  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      43.07     4.18   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     7.32R    0.27  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.88     4.16   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.36R    0.42  
Blackburn       28   30  -12      40.78     4.09   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    20.41R    1.28  
Stoke           28   29  -17      41.02     4.28   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    21.62R    1.66  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      39.07     4.13   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.58R    2.65  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.85     4.51   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    23.78R    2.21  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.77     3.86   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.76R   17.15  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.55     3.94   -37.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.44R   74.13  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Burnley vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    38   71  +22      86.08     3.67    28.63    60.83    86.59    99.99    90.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       38   68  +12      80.82     3.77    14.66     9.81    32.79    99.07    48.68P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          36   64  +30      82.52     4.32    37.13    24.77    60.54    99.52    74.17P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        37   60  +16      74.39     4.02    19.05     0.45     3.34    78.42    22.76P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   59  +17      77.86     4.65    22.68     4.10    15.90    91.30    37.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          37   58   +2      70.27     4.08     1.76     0.02     0.24    33.91     5.31P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          37   57  +14      71.23     4.03    16.90     0.03     0.51    50.91    12.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     38   57   +7      68.51     3.80     7.91     0.00     0.05    21.89     4.39P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          38   57   +2      68.45     3.77     2.79     0.00     0.05    18.13     3.03P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          37   51   +7      63.96     4.01     7.94     0.00     0.00     4.30     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              37   49   -2      60.73     3.99    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        38   49   -9      58.59     3.73   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.48R    0.00  
Doncaster        37   49  -10      58.61     3.85   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.35R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   47   +1      60.36     4.34     0.66     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.16P    0.20R    0.00  
Coventry         36   47   -4      60.71     4.29    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.08P    0.25R    0.00  
Derby            36   46   -3      58.38     4.28    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.81R    0.00  
Watford          36   45   -4      58.95     4.35    -3.86     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.94R    0.00  
Plymouth         38   43  -12      52.96     3.68   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.29R    0.04  
Blackpool        38   43  -13      52.70     3.68   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.86R    0.16  
Nottm_Forest     38   41  -13      50.26     3.72   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.72R    0.43  
Barnsley         35   40  -12      51.62     4.34   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   27.28R    0.44  
Norwich          38   39   -9      48.55     3.73   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.93R    1.55  
Southampton      37   38  -16      48.25     3.96   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.29R    3.00  
Charlton         37   28  -23      37.13     3.87   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   94.37  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Tranmere vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        37   78  +38      95.98     3.92    46.64    90.84    99.08   100.00    99.40P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   69  +19      83.48     4.08    22.81     1.17    22.31    98.04    42.26P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   64  +28      87.02     4.76    38.53     7.62    67.32    99.33    78.14P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         35   64  +10      80.10     4.64    11.40     0.35     8.92    87.91    25.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            36   59  +17      74.66     4.39    19.92     0.01     0.76    55.35    15.52P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.02     4.38    13.51     0.00     0.50    45.84    11.15P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       35   57   +9      75.16     4.56    14.08     0.01     1.00    56.17    13.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        37   56  +12      70.49     4.05    15.12     0.00     0.01    17.86     4.82P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         36   56   +8      71.75     4.36    10.98     0.00     0.08    26.72     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   53   +3      67.03     4.31     3.38     0.00     0.01     4.55     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         36   52   -5      65.08     4.30    -5.83     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     36   50   -5      64.16     4.31    -4.36     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          36   48   -1      61.98     4.30    -0.56     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   34   47  +12      66.12     4.94    16.03     0.00     0.01     5.47     1.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool       37   43   -7      55.38     4.16    -7.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.59R    0.00  
Carlisle         36   41  -10      53.88     4.37   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.27R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   39  -13      50.47     4.21   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.72R    0.04  
Northampton      34   38   -2      53.68     4.84    -3.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.25R    0.01  
Crewe            35   38  -17      48.91     4.33   -24.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.99R    0.20  
Yeovil           35   38  -20      50.32     4.46   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.99R    0.09  
Swindon          35   35   -9      49.95     4.63    -9.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.98R    0.09  
Brighton         34   32  -18      43.53     4.48   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.39R    2.49  
Hereford         33   30  -20      42.33     4.72   -28.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.91R    4.38  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.22     4.40   -51.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   92.70  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Chesterfield vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            36   69  +24      86.38     4.17    29.34    73.53    97.01    99.97    97.85P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              35   62  +18      81.20     4.33    24.07    18.17    76.45    98.20    83.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             36   61  +20      76.42     4.32    22.82     2.98    37.19    86.83    49.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 36   60  +14      76.84     4.16    18.95     2.56    37.23    89.04    50.25P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           36   60   +5      72.56     4.27     3.41     0.45     9.02    54.84    16.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             36   58  +15      72.95     4.35    16.95     0.58    11.49    63.16    23.99P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   58  +10      71.64     4.24    10.11     0.24     6.31    48.49    15.20P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   57  +16      70.09     3.94    17.45     0.07     3.40    37.81    13.21P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           34   54  +16      73.48     4.81    20.66     1.35    18.46    67.85    32.94P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            36   51  +16      66.59     4.34    19.29     0.00     0.64    16.00     4.96P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   48   +7      67.17     5.20     9.07     0.07     2.00    20.70     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   48   -1      61.41     4.24    -1.22     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   47   +3      65.25     4.88     5.90     0.00     0.53    10.32     2.83P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            34   41  -16      54.11     4.57   -22.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         36   39  -13      51.06     4.12   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         36   39  -26      48.88     4.09   -32.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Rotherham            31   36  +13      62.14     5.62    21.25     0.00     0.27     5.71     2.45P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   35  -18      45.91     4.41   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   35   33  -16      45.16     4.28   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.69R    0.05  
Barnet               35   33  -20      45.03     4.45   -24.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.70R    0.08  
Bournemouth          36   28   -4      41.74     4.32    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.07R    0.59  
Chester              37   27  -35      35.69     3.79   -41.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.61R    8.53  
Grimsby              36   26  -24      38.26     4.29   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.15R    4.24  
Luton                35   13   -4      27.57     4.53    -4.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.78R   86.49  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Ebbsfleet_United vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        35   75  +26      93.84     4.66    31.84    85.86    99.85    88.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        37   67  +19      83.61     3.93    25.37     3.19    88.03    26.56P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      83.05     4.88    27.51     5.76    80.86    24.59P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              35   63  +19      81.35     4.60    23.86     3.06    71.45    19.50P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.55     4.42    13.66     0.15    28.38     5.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.87     4.31    11.23     0.02     8.61     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         35   57  +18      73.23     4.69    19.67     0.05    13.63     3.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        33   56  +12      75.45     5.10    14.34     0.24    24.35     5.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              33   54  +19      76.58     5.07    26.43     0.29    35.65     9.90P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            31   54  +12      78.84     5.44    18.40     1.39    48.82    14.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    36   50  +15      66.29     4.35    18.70     0.00     0.30     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            35   47   +2      63.37     4.60     3.87     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.63     4.84   -11.45     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           35   43  -16      55.84     4.40   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.00  
Weymouth             35   42  -17      55.00     4.49   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.31R    0.00  
Salisbury            35   41  -10      53.23     4.51   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.93R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.25     5.32    -4.95     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.68R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.53     4.96     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.21R    0.00  
Forest_Green         35   37  -10      51.72     4.53   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.92R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.21     4.04   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.61R    0.00  
Barrow               34   36  -15      48.65     4.48   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.34R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       34   35  -13      46.98     4.54   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.19R    0.00  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.32     4.48   -32.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.03R    3.53  
Lewes                36   17  -52      23.09     3.34   -63.81     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.47  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4