Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 11 March 2009 at 22:04:24 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Fulham vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.34     4.00    49.56    94.04    99.11    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.34     3.98    43.35     4.01    65.47    97.63    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.47     4.05    34.06     1.95    34.51    92.87    99.04   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.25     4.21    17.05     0.01     0.74     7.20    65.02    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.07     4.12    18.88     0.00     0.17     2.20    30.53    98.31     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.06     4.30    10.11     0.00     0.00     0.14     5.54    81.93     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.79     4.26     0.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    11.44     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.63     4.09    10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.91     0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.55     4.33     1.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.66     0.18R    0.00  
Fulham          28   34   +0      45.65     4.06    -2.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     1.40R    0.02  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.63     4.25   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.53R    0.06  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.71     4.10    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     4.75R    0.16  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      42.97     4.18   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     7.67R    0.28  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.94     4.18   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    11.52R    0.41  
Blackburn       28   30  -12      40.78     4.06   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.12R    1.32  
Stoke           28   29  -17      41.03     4.32   -19.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    21.78R    1.69  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      39.04     4.12   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.74R    2.79  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.86     4.52   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    23.85R    2.23  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.86     3.89   -26.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.87R   16.99  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.59     3.95   -37.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.51R   74.05  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Burnley vs Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    38   71  +22      86.13     3.66    28.71    61.67    87.34    99.99    90.66P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       38   68  +12      80.81     3.76    14.64     9.75    32.68    99.10    48.45P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          36   64  +30      82.39     4.32    36.95    23.73    59.19    99.46    72.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        37   60  +16      74.37     4.00    19.03     0.47     3.34    78.14    22.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   59  +17      77.93     4.66    22.78     4.36    16.66    91.48    38.29P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          37   58   +2      70.25     4.10     1.73     0.01     0.24    34.08     5.44P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          37   57  +14      71.27     4.04    16.96     0.02     0.48    51.62    12.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     38   57   +7      68.47     3.81     7.83     0.00     0.03    21.63     4.37P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          38   57   +2      68.44     3.80     2.79     0.00     0.04    18.20     3.15P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          37   51   +7      63.95     3.99     7.93     0.00     0.00     3.90     0.86P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              37   49   -2      60.77     3.98    -2.61     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.10P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        38   49   -9      58.55     3.75   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.49R    0.00  
Doncaster        37   49  -10      58.74     3.85   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.32R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   47   +1      60.26     4.33     0.50     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.15P    0.22R    0.00  
Coventry         36   47   -4      60.74     4.31    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.10P    0.20R    0.00  
Derby            36   46   -3      58.49     4.30    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.83R    0.00  
Watford          36   45   -4      58.92     4.35    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.05R    0.00  
Plymouth         38   43  -12      52.97     3.67   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.12R    0.06  
Blackpool        38   43  -13      52.72     3.71   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.07R    0.15  
Nottm_Forest     38   41  -13      50.24     3.71   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.60R    0.48  
Barnsley         35   40  -12      51.59     4.37   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.65R    0.40  
Norwich          38   39   -9      48.58     3.74   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.52R    1.55  
Southampton      37   38  -16      48.26     3.95   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.33R    2.96  
Charlton         37   28  -23      37.11     3.86   -28.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.56R   94.39  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Tranmere vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        37   78  +38      95.96     3.91    46.60    90.91    99.06   100.00    99.44P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   69  +19      83.42     4.05    22.68     1.16    21.79    98.06    41.72P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   64  +28      86.98     4.77    38.42     7.49    67.24    99.34    77.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         35   64  +10      80.13     4.64    11.46     0.41     9.24    87.92    25.85P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            36   59  +17      74.67     4.38    19.93     0.01     0.88    54.64    15.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.13     4.42    13.71     0.00     0.64    46.61    11.62P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       35   57   +9      75.24     4.54    14.20     0.02     1.05    56.64    13.52P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        37   56  +12      70.51     4.07    15.16     0.00     0.02    17.81     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         36   56   +8      71.68     4.35    10.87     0.00     0.06    26.06     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   53   +3      67.02     4.31     3.36     0.00     0.00     4.52     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         36   52   -5      65.17     4.31    -5.72     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     36   50   -5      64.15     4.31    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          36   48   -1      61.93     4.28    -0.62     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   34   47  +12      66.12     4.95    16.06     0.00     0.01     5.64     1.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool       37   43   -7      55.39     4.17    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.64R    0.00  
Carlisle         36   41  -10      53.85     4.33   -11.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.09R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   39  -13      50.48     4.20   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.47R    0.02  
Northampton      34   38   -2      53.62     4.80    -3.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.32R    0.00  
Crewe            35   38  -17      48.85     4.31   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.68R    0.21  
Yeovil           35   38  -20      50.26     4.45   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.49R    0.11  
Swindon          35   35   -9      50.00     4.64    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.67R    0.07  
Brighton         34   32  -18      43.58     4.49   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.87R    2.36  
Hereford         33   30  -20      42.37     4.69   -28.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.87R    4.33  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.20     4.39   -51.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   92.89  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Chesterfield vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            36   69  +24      86.38     4.16    29.33    73.93    97.18    99.95    97.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              35   62  +18      81.07     4.37    23.92    17.52    75.89    98.07    82.96P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             36   61  +20      76.49     4.33    22.90     3.19    37.64    87.33    50.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 36   60  +14      76.88     4.15    19.03     2.55    37.66    89.00    50.77P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           36   60   +5      72.58     4.22     3.51     0.43     9.13    55.14    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             36   58  +15      72.95     4.35    16.97     0.63    11.64    63.03    24.37P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   58  +10      71.64     4.23    10.09     0.28     6.32    48.38    15.23P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   57  +16      70.04     3.95    17.36     0.04     3.32    37.67    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           34   54  +16      73.42     4.78    20.54     1.35    17.94    67.37    32.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            36   51  +16      66.65     4.31    19.41     0.00     0.61    16.23     5.08P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   48   +7      67.15     5.18     9.04     0.08     1.90    20.38     6.00P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   48   -1      61.51     4.24    -1.08     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   47   +3      65.22     4.89     5.84     0.00     0.50    10.34     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            34   41  -16      54.13     4.58   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         36   39  -13      51.07     4.11   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         36   39  -26      48.79     4.09   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Rotherham            31   36  +13      62.20     5.62    21.34     0.00     0.27     5.89     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   35  -18      45.86     4.41   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.94R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   35   33  -16      45.15     4.32   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.71R    0.04  
Barnet               35   33  -20      45.10     4.45   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.60R    0.08  
Bournemouth          36   28   -4      41.67     4.34    -3.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.57R    0.66  
Chester              37   27  -35      35.70     3.80   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.33R    8.58  
Grimsby              36   26  -24      38.34     4.29   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.94R    4.07  
Luton                35   13   -4      27.49     4.56    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.78R   86.56  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 March 2009, Ebbsfleet_United vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        35   75  +26      93.90     4.64    31.88    86.27    99.85    89.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        37   67  +19      83.60     3.91    25.37     3.27    88.40    27.19P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      83.01     4.87    27.43     5.50    80.91    24.42P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              35   63  +19      81.26     4.60    23.74     2.96    71.01    19.19P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.46     4.41    13.51     0.14    27.58     5.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.94     4.31    11.37     0.01     8.76     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         35   57  +18      73.28     4.72    19.76     0.04    13.92     3.43P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        33   56  +12      75.55     5.11    14.48     0.22    24.92     5.72P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              33   54  +19      76.56     5.01    26.40     0.30    35.48     9.59P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            31   54  +12      78.83     5.45    18.41     1.30    48.79    13.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    36   50  +15      66.22     4.33    18.62     0.00     0.30     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            35   47   +2      63.37     4.61     3.86     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.62     4.84   -11.48     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           35   43  -16      55.82     4.42   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75R    0.00  
Weymouth             35   42  -17      55.01     4.51   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Salisbury            35   41  -10      53.30     4.50   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.78R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     32   38   -5      57.27     5.31    -4.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.57     4.94     0.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.33R    0.00  
Forest_Green         35   37  -10      51.70     4.50   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.23R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.22     4.00   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.53R    0.00  
Barrow               34   36  -15      48.67     4.49   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.30R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       34   35  -13      46.98     4.49   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.92R    0.00  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.22     4.44   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.09R    3.63  
Lewes                36   17  -52      23.08     3.35   -63.86     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.37  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4