Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 10 March 2009 at 22:04:35 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Sunderland vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.44     3.94    49.72    94.71    99.14    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.32     3.95    43.31     3.62    66.08    97.60    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.38     4.03    33.98     1.66    33.87    92.68    98.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.24     4.19    17.10     0.01     0.72     7.24    65.61    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.01     4.16    18.80     0.00     0.19     2.36    29.96    98.23     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.03     4.33    10.05     0.00     0.01     0.14     5.54    80.51     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.83     4.25     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    11.44     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.60     4.08    10.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.83     0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.64     4.30     1.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.87     0.11R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.78     4.39    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.92     0.47R    0.01  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.48     4.23   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.15R    0.08  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.73     4.12    -2.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     4.09R    0.17  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      42.95     4.16   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     6.18R    0.21  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.96     4.13   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     9.39R    0.31  
Stoke           28   29  -17      40.94     4.26   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    19.58R    1.64  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      38.99     4.15   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.64R    2.65  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.83     4.54   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    21.72R    2.32  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.52     4.29   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    36.81R    4.83  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.81     3.85   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.64R   16.99  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.77     3.98   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.12R   70.79  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2009, Barnsley vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    38   71  +22      86.17     3.69    28.81    62.25    87.26   100.00    90.46P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       38   68  +12      80.80     3.77    14.63     9.86    33.13    99.15    48.87P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          36   64  +30      82.37     4.31    36.94    23.32    59.19    99.55    72.92P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        37   60  +16      74.43     4.02    19.14     0.46     3.47    80.37    23.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   59  +17      77.92     4.63    22.76     4.06    16.30    92.23    38.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          37   57  +14      71.25     4.03    16.93     0.03     0.47    53.45    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     38   57   +7      68.47     3.81     7.86     0.00     0.04    23.14     4.49P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          38   57   +2      68.46     3.78     2.82     0.00     0.05    19.64     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.62     4.34    -0.22     0.01     0.09    23.74     3.62P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          37   51   +7      63.86     4.01     7.76     0.00     0.00     4.27     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              37   49   -2      60.72     3.97    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        38   49   -9      58.62     3.74   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.44R    0.00  
Doncaster        37   49  -10      58.75     3.87   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.37R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   47   +3      61.72     4.58     2.67     0.00     0.00     2.39     0.47P    0.13R    0.00  
Coventry         36   47   -4      60.69     4.29    -3.93     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.12P    0.18R    0.00  
Derby            36   46   -3      58.42     4.29    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    0.84R    0.00  
Watford          36   45   -4      58.92     4.38    -3.85     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    1.05R    0.00  
Plymouth         38   43  -12      52.95     3.68   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.04R    0.05  
Blackpool        38   43  -13      52.74     3.69   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.85R    0.11  
Nottm_Forest     38   41  -13      50.28     3.71   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.28R    0.51  
Barnsley         35   40  -12      51.51     4.36   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.88R    0.36  
Norwich          38   39   -9      48.62     3.71   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.18R    1.35  
Southampton      37   38  -16      48.19     3.95   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.08R    3.02  
Charlton         37   28  -23      37.08     3.86   -28.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.63R   94.61  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2009, Carlisle vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        36   78  +40      98.06     4.16    49.69    95.04    99.58   100.00    99.73P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   69  +19      83.43     4.07    22.69     0.65    21.86    98.27    41.74P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   64  +28      86.99     4.76    38.42     4.10    67.07    99.43    78.08P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         35   64  +10      80.10     4.66    11.43     0.19     9.06    88.87    26.33P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            36   59  +17      74.72     4.38    20.00     0.00     0.72    58.16    16.12P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.11     4.39    13.65     0.00     0.61    49.11    12.13P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       35   57   +9      75.13     4.57    13.96     0.00     1.06    58.41    13.74P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        37   56  +12      70.47     4.05    15.11     0.00     0.02    19.77     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   53   +6      69.28     4.57     7.79     0.00     0.01    14.49     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   53   +3      67.01     4.30     3.34     0.00     0.00     5.28     1.10P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     36   50   -5      64.19     4.29    -4.31     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         35   49   -7      63.08     4.51    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          36   48   -1      61.94     4.32    -0.58     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   34   47  +12      66.03     4.96    15.87     0.00     0.01     6.01     1.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool       37   43   -7      55.38     4.18    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.09R    0.00  
Carlisle         36   41  -10      53.87     4.33   -11.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.74R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   39  -13      50.41     4.20   -15.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.25R    0.05  
Northampton      34   38   -2      53.72     4.83    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.95R    0.01  
Crewe            35   38  -17      48.85     4.33   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.35R    0.30  
Yeovil           35   38  -20      50.30     4.43   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.15R    0.13  
Swindon          35   35   -9      50.02     4.61    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.51R    0.12  
Brighton         33   32  -16      45.38     4.80   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.33R    1.42  
Hereford         33   30  -20      42.41     4.69   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.67R    4.39  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.27     4.41   -50.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   93.58  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2009, Aldershot vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            36   69  +24      86.40     4.18    29.35    73.86    97.03    99.96    97.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              35   62  +18      81.16     4.36    23.99    17.75    76.16    98.18    83.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             36   61  +20      76.49     4.33    22.92     3.07    37.79    87.41    50.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 36   60  +14      76.87     4.15    19.02     2.53    37.38    89.35    50.78P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           36   60   +5      72.50     4.22     3.37     0.41     8.64    55.04    16.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             36   58  +15      72.96     4.35    16.92     0.59    11.67    63.63    24.21P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   58  +10      71.63     4.22    10.09     0.23     6.21    48.51    15.26P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   57  +16      70.11     3.99    17.48     0.06     3.74    38.73    13.57P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           34   54  +16      73.41     4.83    20.54     1.41    18.17    67.47    32.35P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            36   51  +16      66.60     4.34    19.32     0.01     0.63    16.22     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   48   -1      61.47     4.24    -1.12     0.00     0.01     1.16     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   47   +3      65.20     4.89     5.82     0.00     0.44    10.24     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         32   45   +6      66.47     5.45     9.60     0.09     1.93    18.55     5.78P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            34   41  -16      54.30     4.62   -21.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         36   39  -13      51.08     4.12   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         36   39  -26      48.82     4.10   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Rotherham            31   36  +13      62.03     5.63    21.10     0.00     0.19     5.54     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   35  -18      45.83     4.43   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.06R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   35   33  -16      45.09     4.27   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84R    0.04  
Barnet               35   33  -20      45.12     4.44   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.08  
Bournemouth          36   28   -4      41.68     4.36    -3.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.89R    0.74  
Chester              37   27  -35      35.65     3.79   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.72R    8.74  
Grimsby              35   26  -23      39.00     4.49   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.65R    3.30  
Luton                35   13   -4      27.45     4.56    -4.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.07R   87.09  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2009, Altrincham vs Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        34   75  +27      95.82     4.90    33.76    91.38    99.93    93.34P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        37   67  +19      83.65     3.91    25.45     1.93    88.40    26.40P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               34   63  +22      82.98     4.93    27.41     3.69    80.28    22.87P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              35   63  +19      81.26     4.60    23.70     1.78    70.86    18.23P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.49     4.42    13.53     0.09    28.16     5.35P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.93     4.31    11.33     0.01     8.66     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         35   57  +18      73.27     4.73    19.73     0.02    14.07     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        33   56  +12      75.61     5.13    14.59     0.17    25.26     5.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              33   54  +19      76.54     5.06    26.38     0.13    35.45     9.50P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            31   54  +12      78.80     5.44    18.36     0.79    48.57    13.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    36   50  +15      66.30     4.38    18.72     0.00     0.29     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            35   47   +2      63.45     4.59     3.98     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.69     4.85   -11.38     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           35   43  -16      55.86     4.42   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.00  
Weymouth             35   42  -17      55.00     4.47   -20.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.33R    0.00  
Salisbury            35   41  -10      53.29     4.49   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.75R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.48     4.96     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.33R    0.00  
Forest_Green         35   37  -10      51.71     4.52   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.88R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.26     4.03   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.52R    0.00  
Barrow               34   36  -15      48.57     4.46   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.52R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     31   35   -6      54.80     5.54    -7.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.61R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       34   35  -13      46.98     4.52   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.34R    0.00  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.29     4.50   -32.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.99R    3.81  
Lewes                36   17  -52      23.17     3.36   -63.66     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.19  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4