Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 March 2009 at 22:04:18 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Sunderland vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.28     4.02    49.48    94.05    99.05    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.26     3.99    43.23     3.97    65.35    97.54    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.43     4.05    34.06     1.97    34.63    92.74    98.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.24     4.18    17.08     0.01     0.76     7.31    64.88    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.13     4.12    18.98     0.00     0.21     2.31    30.38    98.35     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.11     4.34    10.19     0.00     0.00     0.11     5.97    81.14     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.77     4.25     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    11.18     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.59     4.08    10.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.91     0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.55     4.30     1.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.59     0.14R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.74     4.37    -0.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.48R    0.00  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.51     4.23   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.11R    0.06  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.87     4.08    -2.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     3.60R    0.11  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      43.03     4.17   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     6.15R    0.21  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.94     4.18   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     9.41R    0.30  
Stoke           28   29  -17      40.96     4.27   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    19.50R    1.62  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      39.04     4.13   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.06R    2.49  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.87     4.52   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    21.34R    2.17  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.41     4.26   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    38.10R    4.70  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.82     3.89   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.55R   16.76  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.65     3.97   -37.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.48R   71.58  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    37   70  +22      87.18     3.95    29.97    55.01    83.15    99.99    87.51P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       37   67  +12      81.52     4.05    15.14     8.53    26.96    99.19    43.98P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          35   63  +30      84.40     4.44    39.77    28.95    63.92    99.83    76.94P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   59  +19      80.22     4.86    26.17     6.96    22.33    96.26    44.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   59  +16      75.57     4.23    20.23     0.54     3.43    85.46    24.74P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          37   56   +2      69.34     4.09     3.55     0.00     0.05    27.88     4.43P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.52     4.34    -0.37     0.00     0.05    22.42     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   54  +13      70.18     4.25    16.75     0.01     0.10    42.38     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     37   54   +5      66.91     4.09     5.95     0.00     0.01    14.72     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.64     4.23     6.72     0.00     0.00     4.37     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              36   49   +0      62.44     4.25    -0.13     0.00     0.00     2.35     0.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        37   48   -9      58.46     4.01   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.66R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   47   +3      61.57     4.57     2.46     0.00     0.00     2.13     0.42P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry         35   47   -2      62.12     4.55    -1.80     0.00     0.00     2.27     0.37P    0.07R    0.00  
Doncaster        36   46  -12      56.44     4.06   -16.32     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.07R    0.00  
Derby            35   45   -3      58.69     4.53    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.92R    0.00  
Plymouth         37   43  -11      53.89     3.91   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.26R    0.03  
Watford          35   42   -5      57.73     4.61    -4.21     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    2.21R    0.00  
Blackpool        37   42  -13      52.22     3.90   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.84R    0.13  
Nottm_Forest     37   41  -12      51.32     3.98   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.48R    0.16  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.45     4.56   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.23R    0.31  
Southampton      36   37  -16      48.68     4.25   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.03R    1.91  
Norwich          37   36  -11      46.29     3.93   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.44R    3.46  
Charlton         36   27  -23      36.13     3.95   -31.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.64R   93.99  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Leeds; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        36   78  +40      98.11     4.17    49.77    92.69    99.57   100.00    99.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     36   66  +18      82.12     4.35    22.18     0.38    13.29    96.39    35.37P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   63  +28      88.37     4.98    40.19     6.81    78.57    99.67    85.71P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         34   61   +9      78.62     4.91    10.61     0.09     5.38    83.51    22.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.16     4.40    13.73     0.00     0.59    54.78    13.80P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       34   57  +10      76.14     4.82    14.33     0.02     2.16    69.67    17.59P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            35   56  +13      73.21     4.62    16.08     0.00     0.39    47.46    12.61P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        36   53  +11      69.44     4.35    15.02     0.00     0.01    18.34     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   53   +6      69.22     4.60     7.70     0.00     0.02    17.04     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   50   +2      65.72     4.57     2.86     0.00     0.00     4.58     1.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     35   49   -5      63.58     4.53    -6.01     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Southend         35   49   -7      62.88     4.53    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.18P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          35   47   -1      63.25     4.56     0.83     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.35P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   33   44   +9      64.44     5.25    12.88     0.00     0.01     4.71     1.33P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool       36   43   -6      56.32     4.41    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.48R    0.00  
Carlisle         35   41   -8      55.98     4.60    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.54R    0.01  
Northampton      33   38   -1      54.80     5.09    -2.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.83R    0.01  
Yeovil           34   38  -16      51.60     4.68   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.01R    0.06  
Crewe            34   37  -17      48.73     4.58   -25.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.72R    0.38  
Leyton_Orient    35   36  -15      47.99     4.39   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.71R    0.31  
Swindon          34   35   -8      51.04     4.85    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.04R    0.07  
Brighton         33   32  -16      45.14     4.80   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.43R    1.58  
Hereford         32   30  -17      43.88     5.02   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.19R    3.00  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.24     4.40   -51.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   94.58  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            35   66  +23      85.89     4.37    30.15    62.08    94.08    99.82    95.85P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   62  +19      82.79     4.64    25.45    27.25    80.59    98.85    86.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 35   59  +14      77.37     4.42    19.19     3.29    36.31    88.91    49.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             35   58  +18      74.48     4.61    20.15     1.51    18.20    73.69    32.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             35   58  +17      74.78     4.61    19.74     1.45    20.88    74.50    34.01P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               35   58  +12      74.21     4.50    13.88     1.13    14.24    70.12    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   57   +4      70.67     4.47     2.04     0.15     3.67    36.50     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           36   56  +16      70.91     4.27    18.13     0.13     4.58    44.03    15.33P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           33   54  +17      75.14     5.08    22.10     2.95    25.34    76.45    40.15P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            35   48  +15      65.03     4.62    18.37     0.00     0.27     9.69     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47   -1      61.77     4.51    -1.20     0.00     0.02     1.66     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         32   45   +6      66.75     5.43    10.12     0.05     1.59    18.54     5.50P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   44   +2      62.99     5.07     4.07     0.00     0.14     4.69     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   40  -16      54.42     4.86   -22.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         35   39  -11      53.26     4.44   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         35   39  -24      50.89     4.44   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale            33   35  -17      47.14     4.68   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.01  
Rotherham            30   33   +9      59.69     5.91    15.97     0.00     0.08     2.51     0.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               34   33  -19      45.64     4.59   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   34   30  -18      42.69     4.49   -23.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.11R    0.18  
Chester              36   27  -31      36.88     4.04   -37.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.57R    3.23  
Grimsby              35   26  -23      38.98     4.47   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.01R    1.96  
Bournemouth          35   25   -6      38.81     4.47    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.84R    1.60  
Luton                34   10   -6      25.32     4.81    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.33R   93.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2009, Crawley_Town vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        34   75  +27      95.91     4.90    33.95    88.24    99.92    90.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        36   64  +18      82.53     4.15    25.12     1.16    80.44    23.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               33   63  +23      85.10     5.14    29.58     7.51    87.63    28.02P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.61     4.41    13.72     0.08    27.38     5.04P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   60  +18      80.05     4.87    23.37     1.22    59.37    15.12P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.85     4.28    11.21     0.00     7.72     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         34   57  +20      74.79     4.98    21.96     0.07    21.63     5.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              32   53  +19      77.94     5.28    28.15     0.33    45.21    12.39P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            30   53  +12      79.98     5.62    19.51     1.34    55.74    15.26P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        32   53  +10      73.39     5.41    11.66     0.05    14.49     3.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    35   47  +14      66.14     4.47    20.07     0.00     0.26     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            34   47   +3      64.44     4.79     4.53     0.00     0.19     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.78     4.85   -11.24     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           34   43  -15      57.01     4.65   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Weymouth             34   42  -13      57.48     4.79   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Salisbury            34   38  -14      50.53     4.65   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.40R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.64     4.94     0.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.00  
Forest_Green         34   36  -10      51.09     4.69   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.39R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.30     4.04   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.22R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     31   35   -6      54.98     5.52    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.54R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       33   34  -13      46.36     4.66   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.06R    0.00  
Barrow               33   33  -16      46.09     4.66   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.76R    0.00  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.38     4.43   -32.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.44R    3.78  
Lewes                35   17  -51      23.28     3.41   -64.97     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.22  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4