Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 March 2009 at 22:04:57 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Sunderland vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.40     3.96    49.66    94.56    99.15    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.32     3.95    43.32     3.71    66.03    97.73    99.78   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.38     4.05    33.98     1.72    33.92    92.66    98.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.21     4.22    17.02     0.01     0.70     7.32    65.16    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.02     4.14    18.82     0.00     0.19     2.20    30.14    98.10     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.08     4.31    10.14     0.00     0.00     0.12     5.77    81.53     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.69     4.24     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    11.01     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.65     4.09    10.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.81     0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.57     4.33     1.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.72     0.12R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.70     4.37    -0.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.54R    0.01  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.57     4.20   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.04R    0.04  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.86     4.11    -2.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     3.89R    0.15  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      42.98     4.15   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     6.18R    0.23  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.95     4.14   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     9.62R    0.30  
Stoke           28   29  -17      41.04     4.29   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    19.44R    1.58  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      38.98     4.12   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.56R    2.51  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.84     4.53   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    21.52R    2.29  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.44     4.28   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.48R    4.73  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.89     3.88   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.20R   16.29  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.67     3.99   -37.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.33R   71.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    37   70  +22      87.17     3.95    29.90    55.03    82.56    99.99    87.16P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       37   67  +12      81.47     4.03    15.06     8.23    26.45    99.22    43.54P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          35   63  +30      84.43     4.40    39.80    28.98    64.15    99.84    77.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   59  +19      80.37     4.87    26.34     7.22    23.26    96.35    45.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   59  +16      75.48     4.22    20.10     0.54     3.35    85.25    24.53P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          37   56   +2      69.30     4.08     3.54     0.00     0.02    27.92     4.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.47     4.32    -0.45     0.00     0.06    22.03     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   54  +13      70.18     4.28    16.73     0.01     0.14    42.59     9.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     37   54   +5      66.89     4.10     5.95     0.00     0.01    14.94     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.58     4.21     6.61     0.00     0.00     4.22     0.84P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              36   49   +0      62.50     4.22    -0.08     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        37   48   -9      58.43     4.01   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    0.64R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   47   +3      61.52     4.54     2.40     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.40P    0.09R    0.00  
Coventry         35   47   -2      62.16     4.56    -1.77     0.00     0.00     2.37     0.38P    0.09R    0.00  
Doncaster        36   46  -12      56.51     4.02   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.89R    0.00  
Derby            35   45   -3      58.80     4.53    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    0.92R    0.00  
Plymouth         37   43  -11      53.79     3.90   -12.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.63R    0.03  
Watford          35   42   -5      57.78     4.60    -4.18     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    2.28R    0.00  
Blackpool        37   42  -13      52.25     3.86   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.51R    0.09  
Nottm_Forest     37   41  -12      51.22     3.99   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.49R    0.19  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.50     4.54   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.66R    0.24  
Southampton      36   37  -16      48.70     4.27   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.22R    1.77  
Norwich          37   36  -11      46.34     3.97   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.89R    3.41  
Charlton         36   27  -23      36.09     3.94   -31.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   94.27  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Leeds; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        36   78  +40      98.07     4.16    49.73    92.57    99.59   100.00    99.75P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     36   66  +18      82.15     4.36    22.24     0.34    13.38    96.39    35.98P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   63  +28      88.40     4.96    40.27     6.97    78.75    99.71    86.08P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         34   61   +9      78.59     4.88    10.55     0.10     5.22    83.32    22.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.18     4.39    13.73     0.00     0.58    54.74    13.59P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       34   57  +10      76.19     4.79    14.37     0.01     2.09    69.96    17.50P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            35   56  +13      73.22     4.63    16.11     0.00     0.36    47.89    12.75P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        36   53  +11      69.45     4.33    15.03     0.00     0.01    18.16     5.09P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   53   +6      69.27     4.60     7.76     0.00     0.01    16.99     4.12P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   50   +2      65.64     4.56     2.73     0.00     0.00     4.35     1.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     35   49   -5      63.62     4.51    -5.94     0.00     0.00     1.41     0.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         35   49   -7      62.91     4.54    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.18P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          35   47   -1      63.18     4.58     0.71     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   33   44   +9      64.42     5.22    12.81     0.00     0.01     4.53     1.29P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool       36   43   -6      56.31     4.42    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     2.40R    0.00  
Carlisle         35   41   -8      56.06     4.57    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.34R    0.00  
Northampton      33   38   -1      54.76     5.03    -2.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    6.72R    0.00  
Yeovil           34   38  -16      51.55     4.68   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.89R    0.09  
Crewe            34   37  -17      48.77     4.54   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.63R    0.36  
Leyton_Orient    35   36  -15      48.02     4.39   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.41R    0.32  
Swindon          34   35   -8      51.02     4.89    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.28R    0.08  
Brighton         33   32  -16      45.15     4.81   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.55R    1.49  
Hereford         32   30  -17      43.83     4.95   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.72R    2.86  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.22     4.40   -51.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   94.79  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            35   66  +23      85.83     4.34    30.06    61.47    93.96    99.87    95.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   62  +19      82.87     4.60    25.56    27.79    81.34    98.86    86.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 35   59  +14      77.46     4.46    19.34     3.57    37.12    89.25    50.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             35   58  +18      74.51     4.63    20.19     1.53    18.22    73.39    32.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             35   58  +17      74.83     4.63    19.86     1.57    21.15    74.72    33.94P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               35   58  +12      74.12     4.47    13.74     1.01    13.99    69.12    26.26P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   57   +4      70.64     4.51     1.96     0.14     3.72    36.80     9.46P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           36   56  +16      70.93     4.26    18.11     0.11     4.33    44.43    15.57P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           33   54  +17      75.04     5.07    21.98     2.74    24.18    75.86    38.87P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            35   48  +15      65.11     4.59    18.51     0.00     0.24     9.70     2.87P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47   -1      61.79     4.47    -1.19     0.00     0.02     1.63     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         32   45   +6      66.75     5.44    10.09     0.05     1.49    18.67     5.31P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   44   +2      63.04     5.09     4.11     0.00     0.18     4.96     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   40  -16      54.45     4.88   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         35   39  -11      53.32     4.44   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         35   39  -24      50.89     4.38   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Port_Vale            33   35  -17      46.98     4.66   -26.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.01  
Rotherham            30   33   +9      59.72     5.92    16.01     0.00     0.07     2.70     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               34   33  -19      45.69     4.59   -25.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    0.04  
Accrington_Stanley   34   30  -18      42.73     4.52   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.93R    0.20  
Chester              36   27  -31      36.91     4.07   -37.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.15R    3.14  
Grimsby              35   26  -23      38.98     4.48   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.16R    1.84  
Bournemouth          35   25   -6      38.75     4.51    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.35R    1.69  
Luton                34   10   -6      25.25     4.80    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.32R   93.08  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2009, Crawley_Town vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        34   75  +27      95.82     4.87    33.78    88.27    99.93    90.90P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        36   64  +18      82.55     4.15    25.14     1.19    80.34    23.52P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               33   63  +23      85.04     5.14    29.45     7.46    87.51    27.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.61     4.42    13.75     0.06    27.13     5.07P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   60  +18      80.09     4.87    23.41     1.17    59.83    15.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.86     4.29    11.20     0.00     7.96     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         34   57  +20      74.79     4.98    21.95     0.08    21.98     5.52P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              32   53  +19      77.76     5.36    27.83     0.34    43.69    11.73P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            30   53  +12      80.11     5.63    19.68     1.39    56.66    15.78P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        32   53  +10      73.53     5.35    11.91     0.05    14.50     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    35   47  +14      66.15     4.49    20.08     0.00     0.26     0.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            34   47   +3      64.43     4.81     4.50     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.85     4.85   -11.15     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           34   43  -15      56.97     4.68   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Weymouth             34   42  -13      57.47     4.81   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.00  
Salisbury            34   38  -14      50.50     4.67   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.39R    0.00  
York                 34   37   -3      55.55     4.95     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
Forest_Green         34   36  -10      51.06     4.68   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.49R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.33     4.01   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.75R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     31   35   -6      54.89     5.53    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.65R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       33   34  -13      46.49     4.66   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.15R    0.00  
Barrow               33   33  -16      46.12     4.70   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.85R    0.01  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.41     4.49   -32.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.35R    3.74  
Lewes                35   17  -51      23.28     3.43   -64.94     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.26  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4