Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 March 2009 at 22:04:15 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Sunderland vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.33     3.96    49.58    94.40    99.14    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.32     3.94    43.32     3.74    65.89    97.60    99.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.44     4.04    34.06     1.86    34.10    92.76    98.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.23     4.16    17.03     0.00     0.68     7.26    65.24    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.11     4.13    19.02     0.00     0.18     2.26    30.42    98.17     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.01     4.30    10.05     0.00     0.01     0.13     5.46    80.71     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.85     4.24     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    11.69     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.64     4.08    10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.91     0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.56     4.29     1.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.14R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.79     4.38    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.48R    0.00  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.52     4.24   -12.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     2.14R    0.05  
Tottenham       28   32   +0      43.76     4.13    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     4.02R    0.13  
Sunderland      28   32   -8      43.05     4.17   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     6.09R    0.22  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.96     4.14   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     9.23R    0.32  
Stoke           28   29  -17      40.96     4.30   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    19.43R    1.62  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      38.98     4.11   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.25R    2.55  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.89     4.52   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    21.07R    2.17  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.37     4.28   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    38.18R    4.88  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.82     3.88   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.45R   16.59  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.67     3.94   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.45R   71.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    37   70  +22      87.13     3.95    29.86    54.49    82.70    99.99    87.19P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       37   67  +12      81.53     4.04    15.15     8.52    26.92    99.22    43.95P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          35   63  +30      84.40     4.41    39.74    29.14    64.21    99.85    76.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   59  +19      80.29     4.87    26.26     7.30    22.66    96.19    44.71P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   59  +16      75.55     4.23    20.16     0.54     3.31    85.46    24.56P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          37   56   +2      69.28     4.07     3.50     0.00     0.03    27.48     4.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.45     4.34    -0.50     0.00     0.04    21.85     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   54  +13      70.18     4.29    16.74     0.01     0.13    42.61     9.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     37   54   +5      66.95     4.10     6.02     0.00     0.00    15.16     2.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.55     4.25     6.57     0.00     0.00     4.25     0.86P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              36   49   +0      62.56     4.25    -0.00     0.00     0.00     2.48     0.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        37   48   -9      58.41     3.99   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.65R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   47   +3      61.55     4.55     2.38     0.00     0.00     2.26     0.48P    0.10R    0.00  
Coventry         35   47   -2      62.13     4.55    -1.78     0.00     0.00     2.28     0.39P    0.09R    0.00  
Doncaster        36   46  -12      56.52     4.07   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.96R    0.00  
Derby            35   45   -3      58.80     4.59    -5.12     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    0.93R    0.00  
Plymouth         37   43  -11      53.80     3.91   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.74R    0.02  
Watford          35   42   -5      57.80     4.63    -4.14     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    2.30R    0.01  
Blackpool        37   42  -13      52.30     3.87   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.15R    0.12  
Nottm_Forest     37   41  -12      51.29     4.01   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.97R    0.17  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.41     4.53   -18.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.44R    0.24  
Southampton      36   37  -16      48.62     4.24   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.65R    1.87  
Norwich          37   36  -11      46.35     3.98   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.35R    3.50  
Charlton         36   27  -23      36.10     3.91   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.66R   94.07  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Leeds; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        36   78  +40      98.07     4.18    49.67    92.41    99.55   100.00    99.71P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     36   66  +18      82.18     4.37    22.29     0.41    13.43    96.61    36.08P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   63  +28      88.45     4.96    40.33     7.08    78.83    99.72    85.92P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         34   61   +9      78.61     4.89    10.58     0.08     5.28    83.30    21.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   58  +10      74.14     4.40    13.67     0.00     0.53    54.46    13.70P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       34   57  +10      76.10     4.81    14.27     0.01     1.90    69.34    17.06P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            35   56  +13      73.31     4.61    16.28     0.01     0.45    48.64    13.45P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        36   53  +11      69.39     4.36    14.91     0.00     0.01    18.20     5.14P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   53   +6      69.21     4.60     7.65     0.00     0.01    16.91     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   50   +2      65.72     4.57     2.85     0.00     0.00     4.67     1.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     35   49   -5      63.58     4.52    -6.05     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Southend         35   49   -7      62.95     4.55    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          35   47   -1      63.26     4.53     0.88     0.00     0.00     1.46     0.35P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   33   44   +9      64.26     5.23    12.57     0.00     0.00     4.35     1.20P    0.08R    0.00  
Hartlepool       36   43   -6      56.39     4.45    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.36R    0.00  
Carlisle         35   41   -8      55.96     4.61    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.59R    0.00  
Northampton      33   38   -1      54.72     5.06    -2.75     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    7.15R    0.00  
Yeovil           34   38  -16      51.49     4.69   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.48R    0.08  
Crewe            34   37  -17      48.68     4.56   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.48R    0.39  
Leyton_Orient    35   36  -15      48.07     4.41   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.15R    0.36  
Swindon          34   35   -8      51.01     4.85    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.19R    0.07  
Brighton         33   32  -16      45.25     4.80   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.81R    1.42  
Hereford         32   30  -17      43.96     5.03   -24.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.71R    2.80  
Cheltenham       34   22  -39      32.22     4.39   -51.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   94.88  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            35   66  +23      85.82     4.35    30.02    61.29    93.85    99.84    95.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   62  +19      82.93     4.60    25.62    28.33    81.75    98.87    87.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 35   59  +14      77.35     4.44    19.16     3.28    36.64    88.99    49.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             35   58  +18      74.49     4.59    20.18     1.47    18.08    73.88    31.94P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             35   58  +17      74.80     4.57    19.78     1.39    20.82    74.95    33.90P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               35   58  +12      74.12     4.48    13.78     1.02    13.88    69.06    26.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   57   +4      70.68     4.48     2.04     0.17     3.86    36.70     9.50P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           36   56  +16      70.92     4.26    18.13     0.13     4.51    44.58    15.63P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           33   54  +17      75.06     5.06    22.00     2.86    24.50    75.92    39.08P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            35   48  +15      65.05     4.61    18.44     0.00     0.25     9.61     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47   -1      61.74     4.50    -1.27     0.00     0.02     1.55     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         32   45   +6      66.74     5.42    10.10     0.08     1.63    18.64     5.64P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   44   +2      62.98     5.05     4.01     0.00     0.15     4.78     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   40  -16      54.45     4.86   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         35   39  -11      53.23     4.45   -12.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         35   39  -24      51.00     4.42   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale            33   35  -17      47.02     4.68   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Rotherham            30   33   +9      59.86     5.90    16.21     0.00     0.06     2.60     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               34   33  -19      45.70     4.63   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.48R    0.04  
Accrington_Stanley   34   30  -18      42.72     4.54   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.28R    0.18  
Chester              36   27  -31      36.93     4.07   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.72R    3.14  
Grimsby              35   26  -23      38.98     4.48   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.13R    1.90  
Bournemouth          35   25   -6      38.72     4.51    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.29R    1.72  
Luton                34   10   -6      25.25     4.81    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.36R   93.02  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2009, Cambridge_Utd vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        34   75  +27      95.94     4.91    33.97    88.24    99.91    90.98P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        36   64  +18      82.44     4.19    25.01     1.11    80.47    23.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               33   63  +23      85.12     5.17    29.58     7.55    88.14    28.44P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            36   63  +14      76.64     4.42    13.80     0.06    28.40     5.31P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   60  +18      79.95     4.88    23.21     1.06    59.54    14.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   59  +11      72.86     4.30    11.20     0.01     8.26     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   54  +18      73.78     5.19    20.95     0.04    18.14     4.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              32   53  +19      77.77     5.32    27.82     0.34    44.51    11.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            30   53  +12      80.08     5.68    19.69     1.55    57.14    16.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        32   53  +10      73.43     5.37    11.73     0.04    14.99     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    35   47  +14      66.17     4.45    20.11     0.00     0.29     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            34   47   +3      64.41     4.79     4.47     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   34   46  -10      61.82     4.82   -11.21     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           34   43  -15      57.04     4.66   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.21     4.97   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Salisbury            34   38  -14      50.53     4.70   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.51R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      55.90     5.25     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green         34   36  -10      51.09     4.71   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.52R    0.00  
Woking               36   36  -12      46.32     4.04   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.80R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.46     5.78    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       33   34  -13      46.47     4.65   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.33R    0.00  
Barrow               33   33  -16      46.17     4.63   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.34R    0.00  
Northwich            34   21  -26      33.40     4.49   -32.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.37R    3.66  
Lewes                35   17  -51      23.19     3.42   -65.17     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.34  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4