Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 March 2009 at 22:04:08 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2009, Blackburn vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.39     3.95    49.63    94.36    99.09    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.37     3.94    43.42     3.78    65.96    97.75    99.77   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.49     4.03    34.15     1.85    34.08    92.98    98.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.21     4.18    17.04     0.01     0.69     6.96    64.86    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.09     4.15    18.96     0.00     0.17     2.21    30.54    98.26     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.06     4.35    10.08     0.00     0.00     0.11     5.69    80.94     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.86     4.24     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    11.49     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.62     4.06    10.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.65     0.05R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.54     4.30     1.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.56     0.12R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.68     4.36    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.49R    0.00  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.61     4.24   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.07R    0.04  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.91     4.12   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     9.42R    0.31  
Tottenham       27   31   +0      44.06     4.35    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     4.23R    0.14  
Sunderland      27   31   -8      43.33     4.45   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     6.51R    0.28  
Stoke           28   29  -17      40.95     4.31   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    19.69R    1.78  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      38.96     4.11   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.49R    2.64  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.87     4.53   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    21.09R    2.19  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.43     4.28   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.44R    4.94  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.82     3.90   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.23R   16.69  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.72     3.99   -37.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.16R   70.99  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2009, Birmingham vs Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    36   67  +21      85.77     4.26    29.28    41.71    76.74    99.90    82.52P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       36   64  +11      80.49     4.29    14.97     7.52    23.44    97.16    41.31P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   62  +30      85.48     4.66    40.62    44.64    76.15    99.79    84.73P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        35   58  +16      76.09     4.50    20.52     1.19     6.08    83.64    26.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   56  +16      78.62     5.10    23.12     4.85    16.70    90.42    38.03P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          36   56   +3      70.59     4.32     4.44     0.02     0.27    34.42     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.58     4.34    -0.27     0.00     0.06    19.09     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     36   54   +6      68.47     4.36     7.24     0.01     0.07    21.15     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          35   53  +13      71.01     4.53    17.40     0.05     0.48    45.05    11.43P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.55     4.22     6.56     0.00     0.00     3.45     0.75P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              35   48   +0      62.72     4.49    -0.27     0.00     0.00     2.62     0.51P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        36   48   -8      59.62     4.29   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.46R    0.00  
Coventry         35   47   -2      61.91     4.54    -2.05     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.27P    0.11R    0.00  
Doncaster        35   46   -9      57.59     4.27   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.19R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   44   +2      60.04     4.83     1.62     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.26P    0.47R    0.00  
Derby            34   42   -4      57.00     4.78    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    3.06R    0.04  
Plymouth         36   42  -11      53.48     4.07   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.89R    0.10  
Nottm_Forest     36   40  -12      51.40     4.27   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.69R    0.56  
Watford          34   39   -6      56.13     4.89    -5.15     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.36R    0.10  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.46     4.52   -17.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.43R    0.67  
Blackpool        36   39  -15      50.40     4.14   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.70R    1.38  
Southampton      35   37  -15      49.49     4.46   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.06R    2.78  
Norwich          36   36   -9      47.86     4.28   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.73R    3.80  
Charlton         35   27  -22      37.51     4.25   -30.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   90.57  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crewe vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        35   75  +36      97.70     4.29    48.30    88.16    99.60   100.00    99.73P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     35   63  +17      80.67     4.67    21.45     0.24     8.19    91.91    30.43P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.42     5.22    41.33    11.49    85.35    99.70    90.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   58  +11      76.27     4.64    15.85     0.01     1.85    70.82    18.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58   +8      76.87     5.13     9.41     0.09     3.02    70.79    17.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            34   55  +13      73.59     4.86    16.12     0.00     0.65    49.92    13.36P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       33   54   +9      74.34     5.10    13.01     0.01     1.19    53.98    13.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        35   53  +12      70.77     4.60    15.93     0.00     0.09    27.83     7.98P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +6      69.39     4.86     7.36     0.00     0.04    18.10     4.29P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   49   -4      65.09     4.79    -4.79     0.00     0.00     3.68     0.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          34   47   +1      64.86     4.83     3.23     0.00     0.00     3.92     0.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       34   47   +1      63.47     4.81     0.86     0.00     0.01     2.18     0.48P    0.05R    0.00  
Southend         34   46   -9      60.80     4.82   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.30R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.90     5.50    12.98     0.00     0.02     6.57     1.91P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool       35   43   -5      57.75     4.69    -5.75     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.36R    0.00  
Carlisle         34   40   -8      56.42     4.84    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.40R    0.00  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.30     5.35    -2.47     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    6.09R    0.01  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.76     4.93   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    0.12  
Swindon          33   34   -8      50.89     5.10    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.67R    0.11  
Crewe            33   34  -18      47.05     4.82   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.20R    1.48  
Leyton_Orient    34   33  -16      46.17     4.61   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.26R    1.28  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.51     5.01   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.11R    1.21  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.32     5.28   -23.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.08R    2.44  
Cheltenham       33   22  -35      32.77     4.53   -49.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   93.34  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Barnet vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            34   65  +23      86.12     4.61    30.09    55.47    93.58    99.87    95.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   61  +19      83.89     4.88    26.49    31.65    83.89    99.19    88.68P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   58  +18      76.00     4.82    20.61     2.36    27.45    82.55    40.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 34   56  +13      75.81     4.69    18.32     1.68    23.57    81.95    38.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             34   55  +13      72.84     4.82    15.28     0.53     9.55    60.93    21.51P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               34   55  +11      72.26     4.75    12.45     0.40     7.40    55.63    18.06P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           32   54  +18      78.16     5.25    25.67     7.69    46.10    90.56    59.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54   +2      68.72     4.71    -0.53     0.05     1.79    25.54     5.81P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   53  +15      69.90     4.46    18.00     0.05     2.88    39.28    12.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            34   48  +17      67.79     4.85    22.61     0.03     1.31    26.18     8.64P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   44   +6      66.13     5.65     8.68     0.07     1.41    17.90     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   44   +6      65.84     5.32    10.32     0.02     0.94    15.47     4.55P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.01     4.69    -5.02     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   40  -11      55.63     5.07   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         34   39  -10      53.81     4.61   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         34   36  -25      47.82     4.48   -33.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.01  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.78     4.91   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.13R    0.03  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      60.18     6.15    16.23     0.00     0.13     4.07     1.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.56     4.82   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.01R    0.17  
Barnet               33   30  -21      44.12     4.81   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.88R    0.31  
Chester              35   27  -29      38.14     4.35   -35.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.02R    3.51  
Bournemouth          34   24   -6      40.36     4.82    -5.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.11R    1.75  
Grimsby              34   23  -27      35.92     4.61   -32.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.75R   10.09  
Luton                33   10   -5      26.95     5.07    -6.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.62R   84.12  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crawley_Town vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.49     5.14    36.31    89.08    99.96    91.72P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               32   63  +24      86.37     5.40    30.47     7.95    91.15    29.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        35   61  +16      80.64     4.51    22.72     0.43    65.84    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            35   60  +13      75.38     4.72    13.31     0.01    22.29     4.17P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +18      80.65     5.17    23.70     1.12    64.61    16.43P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   58  +11      73.46     4.59    11.54     0.00    11.54     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   54  +18      73.63     5.21    20.70     0.02    17.63     4.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              31   53  +20      79.95     5.55    30.17     0.65    61.25    17.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.41     5.64    12.58     0.09    20.36     4.37P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            29   50  +11      78.17     6.01    18.34     0.64    44.48    12.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.33     4.73    19.85     0.00     0.63     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      64.04     4.98     5.34     0.00     0.24     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   33   43  -11      59.54     5.11   -13.38     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Altrincham           33   43  -14      58.41     4.93   -17.59     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.25     5.02   -14.18     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.71     4.95   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.17R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      55.97     5.21     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59R    0.00  
Forest_Green         33   35  -10      51.19     4.96   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.85R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.45     5.81    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.63     4.32   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.11R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.57     4.96   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.89R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       32   31  -14      44.71     4.94   -22.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.79R    0.00  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.35     4.72   -32.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.01R    3.61  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.56     3.55   -65.92     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.39  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4