Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 March 2009 at 22:04:07 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2009, Blackburn vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.39     3.97    49.67    94.67    99.18    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.36     3.93    43.38     3.71    66.48    97.82    99.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.40     4.05    34.00     1.60    33.47    92.84    98.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.17     4.21    16.99     0.01     0.67     7.04    65.16    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.02     4.18    18.84     0.00     0.19     2.19    30.28    98.08     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.03     4.30    10.04     0.00     0.00     0.12     5.74    80.89     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.75     4.23     0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    11.04     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.64     4.09    10.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.00     0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.62     4.33     1.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.87     0.14R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.70     4.37    -0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.75     0.55R    0.01  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.54     4.24   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.21R    0.07  
Hull            28   32  -16      42.95     4.17   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     9.65R    0.34  
Tottenham       27   31   +0      44.11     4.37    -2.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     4.30R    0.17  
Sunderland      27   31   -8      43.33     4.45   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     6.76R    0.27  
Stoke           28   29  -17      41.03     4.27   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    19.02R    1.65  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      38.98     4.13   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.59R    2.57  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.86     4.51   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    21.26R    2.17  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.48     4.27   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.36R    4.78  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.87     3.89   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.07R   16.69  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.72     3.99   -37.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.02R   71.27  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2009, Birmingham vs Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    36   67  +21      85.80     4.26    29.32    41.63    76.90    99.90    82.56P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       36   64  +11      80.46     4.30    14.91     7.56    23.37    97.07    40.92P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   62  +30      85.48     4.66    40.65    44.37    75.96    99.83    84.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        35   58  +16      76.07     4.50    20.49     1.31     6.08    83.68    27.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   56  +16      78.63     5.13    23.09     5.02    16.85    90.42    38.05P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          36   56   +3      70.61     4.32     4.47     0.03     0.27    35.20     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.59     4.34    -0.29     0.02     0.07    19.31     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     36   54   +6      68.40     4.36     7.14     0.01     0.07    21.12     4.38P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          35   53  +13      70.88     4.55    17.22     0.05     0.42    44.07    10.98P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.45     4.22     6.42     0.00     0.00     3.15     0.66P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              35   48   +0      62.73     4.50    -0.26     0.00     0.00     2.70     0.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        36   48   -8      59.66     4.30   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.38R    0.00  
Coventry         35   47   -2      62.04     4.52    -1.91     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.28P    0.09R    0.00  
Doncaster        35   46   -9      57.60     4.26   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.30R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   44   +2      60.05     4.83     1.60     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.29P    0.45R    0.00  
Derby            34   42   -4      56.98     4.79    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    3.15R    0.06  
Plymouth         36   42  -11      53.42     4.09   -13.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    0.11  
Nottm_Forest     36   40  -12      51.47     4.28   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.49R    0.53  
Watford          34   39   -6      56.10     4.88    -5.24     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.49R    0.13  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.47     4.53   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.20R    0.70  
Blackpool        36   39  -15      50.37     4.17   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.33R    1.45  
Southampton      35   37  -15      49.52     4.46   -19.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.87R    2.64  
Norwich          36   36   -9      47.92     4.24   -11.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.99R    3.77  
Charlton         35   27  -22      37.60     4.26   -29.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.87R   90.59  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crewe vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        35   75  +36      97.66     4.30    48.21    88.02    99.58   100.00    99.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     35   63  +17      80.53     4.65    21.19     0.24     7.79    91.62    29.25P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.44     5.22    41.38    11.63    85.79    99.77    90.45P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   58  +11      76.15     4.66    15.66     0.01     1.68    69.89    18.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58   +8      76.83     5.18     9.35     0.08     3.08    70.31    17.82P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            34   55  +13      73.58     4.91    16.05     0.00     0.71    49.83    13.80P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       33   54   +9      74.43     5.13    13.09     0.01     1.21    54.89    13.72P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        35   53  +12      70.82     4.61    16.00     0.00     0.09    28.67     8.15P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +6      69.44     4.83     7.46     0.00     0.05    18.31     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   49   -4      65.08     4.79    -4.85     0.00     0.00     3.51     0.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          34   47   +1      64.86     4.83     3.23     0.00     0.00     3.90     0.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       34   47   +1      63.35     4.81     0.69     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.48P    0.06R    0.00  
Southend         34   46   -9      60.80     4.79   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.06P    0.29R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.89     5.49    12.97     0.00     0.01     6.67     1.85P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool       35   43   -5      57.78     4.74    -5.71     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.44R    0.00  
Carlisle         34   40   -8      56.43     4.84    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.33R    0.00  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.29     5.35    -2.48     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    6.21R    0.01  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.80     4.95   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.66R    0.11  
Swindon          33   34   -8      51.03     5.11    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.93R    0.15  
Crewe            33   34  -18      47.04     4.79   -27.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.58R    1.41  
Leyton_Orient    34   33  -16      46.11     4.61   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.51R    1.42  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.69     5.06   -22.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.91R    1.21  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.28     5.36   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.21R    2.62  
Cheltenham       33   22  -35      32.78     4.54   -49.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   93.07  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Barnet vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            34   65  +23      86.19     4.60    30.14    55.84    93.68    99.87    95.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   61  +19      83.91     4.85    26.50    31.68    83.89    99.25    88.63P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   58  +18      76.08     4.84    20.77     2.39    27.93    82.92    41.36P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 34   56  +13      75.86     4.72    18.37     1.77    24.36    82.28    38.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             34   55  +13      72.79     4.84    15.19     0.52     9.72    60.88    21.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               34   55  +11      72.26     4.74    12.46     0.43     7.40    55.69    17.92P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           32   54  +18      78.00     5.27    25.47     7.17    44.78    90.07    57.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54   +2      68.69     4.74    -0.58     0.07     1.87    25.22     5.79P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   53  +15      69.87     4.47    17.96     0.04     2.84    38.91    13.06P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            34   48  +17      67.76     4.84    22.58     0.03     1.22    26.18     8.46P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   44   +6      66.19     5.56     8.77     0.05     1.31    18.04     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   44   +6      65.80     5.33    10.27     0.02     0.87    15.65     4.48P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.06     4.71    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   40  -11      55.70     5.06   -17.67     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         34   39  -10      53.79     4.59   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         34   36  -25      47.99     4.49   -33.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.80     4.89   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.03R    0.03  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      60.17     6.17    16.20     0.00     0.11     4.19     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.46     4.85   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.02R    0.17  
Barnet               33   30  -21      44.06     4.84   -27.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.88R    0.30  
Chester              35   27  -29      38.10     4.31   -35.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.02R    3.57  
Bournemouth          34   24   -6      40.26     4.82    -6.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.63R    1.65  
Grimsby              34   23  -27      35.93     4.64   -32.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.52R   10.14  
Luton                33   10   -5      26.97     5.07    -6.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.49R   84.14  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crawley_Town vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.60     5.11    36.47    89.49    99.96    92.08P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               32   63  +24      86.34     5.40    30.40     7.75    90.92    29.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        35   61  +16      80.64     4.50    22.76     0.39    66.24    17.87P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            35   60  +13      75.33     4.70    13.26     0.03    22.12     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +18      80.65     5.13    23.69     1.06    64.61    16.13P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   58  +11      73.48     4.56    11.59     0.01    11.51     2.35P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   54  +18      73.77     5.22    20.94     0.02    18.42     4.49P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              31   53  +20      79.90     5.63    30.10     0.68    60.75    17.18P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.20     5.65    12.31     0.06    19.55     3.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            29   50  +11      78.24     5.94    18.42     0.51    45.11    12.39P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.32     4.67    19.82     0.00     0.58     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      64.02     4.96     5.30     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   33   43  -11      59.52     5.11   -13.42     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Altrincham           33   43  -14      58.40     4.96   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.18     4.99   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.66     4.92   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.26R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      55.89     5.23     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69R    0.00  
Forest_Green         33   35  -10      51.31     4.97   -12.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.55R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.47     5.84    -6.88     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.19R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.70     4.31   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.78R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.50     4.95   -22.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.11R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       32   31  -14      44.65     4.91   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.41R    0.00  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.41     4.76   -32.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.72R    3.71  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.65     3.59   -65.79     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.28  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4