Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 4 March 2009 at 22:04:09 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2009, Blackburn vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         27   65  +36      89.39     3.96    49.62    94.37    99.11    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.33     3.95    43.37     3.74    66.14    97.71    99.77   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.39     4.04    34.01     1.88    33.77    92.63    98.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   52  +13      68.26     4.20    17.10     0.01     0.79     7.23    65.32    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      65.06     4.16    18.92     0.00     0.19     2.32    30.12    98.13     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   45   +8      60.13     4.32    10.20     0.00     0.00     0.11     5.65    81.24     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        28   39   +0      52.79     4.26     0.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    11.06     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City        28   35   +9      49.69     4.08    10.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.95     0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           28   35   +0      49.48     4.32     1.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.59     0.15R    0.00  
Fulham          27   34   +1      47.73     4.36    -0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.48R    0.00  
Bolton          28   33  -10      45.45     4.25   -12.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.27R    0.06  
Hull            28   32  -16      43.01     4.18   -20.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     9.31R    0.29  
Tottenham       27   31   +0      44.06     4.38    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     4.29R    0.18  
Sunderland      27   31   -8      43.44     4.47   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     6.18R    0.26  
Stoke           28   29  -17      40.97     4.27   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    19.39R    1.62  
Newcastle       28   28  -11      38.96     4.13   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.50R    2.75  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.88     4.51   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    21.06R    2.05  
Blackburn       27   27  -13      38.43     4.27   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.46R    4.71  
Middlesbrough   28   26  -20      34.84     3.88   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.47R   16.33  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.65     3.97   -37.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R   71.76  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2009, Birmingham vs Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    36   67  +21      85.81     4.24    29.37    42.03    77.05    99.92    82.96P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       36   64  +11      80.45     4.27    14.92     7.38    23.08    97.27    40.44P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   62  +30      85.44     4.66    40.56    44.17    75.66    99.75    84.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        35   58  +16      76.01     4.52    20.36     1.18     5.95    83.10    26.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   56  +16      78.68     5.17    23.19     5.15    17.37    90.34    38.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          36   56   +3      70.65     4.30     4.52     0.02     0.26    35.56     6.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.60     4.36    -0.26     0.01     0.08    19.22     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     36   54   +6      68.44     4.38     7.19     0.00     0.08    21.37     4.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          35   53  +13      70.91     4.54    17.23     0.06     0.47    44.00    11.12P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.53     4.26     6.54     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.77P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              35   48   +0      62.67     4.49    -0.32     0.00     0.00     2.57     0.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        36   48   -8      59.54     4.26   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.04P    0.46R    0.00  
Coventry         35   47   -2      62.05     4.53    -1.90     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.31P    0.08R    0.00  
Doncaster        35   46   -9      57.61     4.28   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.24R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   44   +2      59.95     4.81     1.48     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.22P    0.51R    0.00  
Derby            34   42   -4      57.02     4.82    -6.36     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    3.28R    0.05  
Plymouth         36   42  -11      53.45     4.10   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    0.11  
Nottm_Forest     36   40  -12      51.35     4.25   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.04R    0.62  
Watford          34   39   -6      56.06     4.89    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    5.51R    0.10  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.66     4.55   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.91R    0.69  
Blackpool        36   39  -15      50.44     4.16   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.97R    1.34  
Southampton      35   37  -15      49.52     4.44   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.37R    2.65  
Norwich          36   36   -9      47.94     4.25   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.40R    3.64  
Charlton         35   27  -22      37.51     4.28   -30.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   90.80  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crewe vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        35   75  +36      97.60     4.29    48.14    87.81    99.59   100.00    99.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     35   63  +17      80.62     4.67    21.36     0.24     8.21    92.00    30.33P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.38     5.23    41.21    11.83    85.31    99.78    90.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   58  +11      76.05     4.65    15.49     0.02     1.86    69.27    18.33P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58   +8      76.84     5.16     9.38     0.08     3.00    70.78    17.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            34   55  +13      73.55     4.86    16.06     0.01     0.67    49.89    13.60P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       33   54   +9      74.35     5.09    12.97     0.01     1.20    54.48    13.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        35   53  +12      70.75     4.59    15.92     0.00     0.10    28.12     8.08P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +6      69.42     4.84     7.44     0.00     0.04    18.63     4.53P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   49   -4      65.14     4.75    -4.69     0.00     0.00     3.58     0.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          34   47   +1      65.00     4.81     3.44     0.00     0.00     4.15     0.96P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       34   47   +1      63.50     4.84     1.00     0.00     0.00     2.37     0.55P    0.06R    0.00  
Southend         34   46   -9      60.81     4.81   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P    0.27R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.75     5.46    12.74     0.00     0.02     6.23     1.74P    0.08R    0.00  
Hartlepool       35   43   -5      57.77     4.73    -5.74     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    1.40R    0.00  
Carlisle         34   40   -8      56.39     4.85    -8.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.57R    0.00  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.27     5.37    -2.50     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    6.40R    0.00  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.89     4.98   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   20.36R    0.10  
Swindon          33   34   -8      50.90     5.09    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R    0.17  
Crewe            33   34  -18      47.16     4.81   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.80R    1.33  
Leyton_Orient    34   33  -16      46.25     4.65   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.91R    1.38  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.55     5.03   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.12R    1.19  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.35     5.34   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.15R    2.34  
Cheltenham       33   22  -35      32.69     4.50   -49.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.82R   93.48  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Barnet vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            34   65  +23      86.07     4.63    29.97    55.65    93.41    99.87    95.28P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   61  +19      83.80     4.81    26.35    31.41    84.00    99.20    88.73P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   58  +18      76.08     4.80    20.74     2.57    27.92    83.05    41.10P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 34   56  +13      75.77     4.71    18.22     1.66    23.79    81.68    38.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             34   55  +13      72.86     4.86    15.29     0.59     9.83    61.07    21.54P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               34   55  +11      72.25     4.76    12.42     0.44     7.48    55.18    18.09P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           32   54  +18      78.03     5.24    25.48     7.50    45.33    90.14    58.39P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54   +2      68.68     4.70    -0.57     0.06     1.75    25.31     5.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   53  +15      69.92     4.46    18.01     0.04     2.84    39.19    13.22P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            34   48  +17      67.79     4.83    22.62     0.01     1.29    26.09     8.41P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   44   +6      66.26     5.59     8.92     0.05     1.35    18.37     5.22P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   44   +6      65.87     5.36    10.30     0.02     0.91    16.06     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.08     4.67    -4.95     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   40  -11      55.66     5.07   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         34   39  -10      53.83     4.61   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         34   36  -25      47.94     4.49   -33.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53R    0.01  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.78     4.91   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.03  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      60.07     6.16    16.06     0.00     0.09     3.96     1.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.54     4.82   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.82R    0.16  
Barnet               33   30  -21      44.13     4.82   -27.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.73R    0.27  
Chester              35   27  -29      38.14     4.32   -35.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.77R    3.26  
Bournemouth          34   24   -6      40.27     4.79    -6.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.50R    1.68  
Grimsby              34   23  -27      35.92     4.67   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.79R   10.17  
Luton                33   10   -5      26.91     5.04    -6.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.77R   84.43  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crawley_Town vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.63     5.13    36.52    89.49    99.95    92.00P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               32   63  +24      86.46     5.39    30.59     7.89    91.34    29.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        35   61  +16      80.64     4.48    22.76     0.36    66.52    17.93P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            35   60  +13      75.29     4.70    13.17     0.02    22.13     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +18      80.62     5.15    23.66     0.99    64.12    15.94P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   58  +11      73.39     4.55    11.47     0.01    11.04     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   54  +18      73.68     5.22    20.83     0.02    18.11     4.38P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              31   53  +20      79.91     5.55    30.12     0.63    61.03    17.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.29     5.65    12.42     0.07    19.96     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            29   50  +11      78.21     5.97    18.37     0.52    44.95    12.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.37     4.71    19.87     0.00     0.59     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      64.07     5.02     5.41     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   33   43  -11      59.39     5.08   -13.61     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Altrincham           33   43  -14      58.51     4.90   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.20     5.01   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.11R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.70     4.95   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.33R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      56.09     5.23     0.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62R    0.00  
Forest_Green         33   35  -10      51.21     4.95   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.64R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.47     5.79    -6.87     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.22R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.68     4.31   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.78R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.55     4.91   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.57R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       32   31  -14      44.61     4.89   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.67R    0.00  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.31     4.75   -32.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.86R    3.63  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.55     3.56   -65.99     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.37  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4