Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 3 March 2009 at 22:04:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Liverpool vs Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.80     4.13    50.19    92.52    98.61    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   58  +32      79.52     3.93    43.65     5.15    66.23    96.37    99.60   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   58  +25      77.48     4.03    34.15     2.27    32.95    88.30    98.63   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   52  +15      69.99     4.48    19.72     0.06     2.03    13.35    74.36    99.64     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   49  +15      64.99     4.15    18.79     0.00     0.16     1.84    21.19    97.56     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   44   +8      60.91     4.62    10.83     0.00     0.01     0.22     6.13    82.42     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        27   36   -1      50.62     4.52    -1.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.03     0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           27   35   +1      51.53     4.66     3.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.14     0.04R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      49.98     4.67     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.40     0.16R    0.00  
Bolton          27   33   -8      47.13     4.58    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     1.10R    0.03  
Man_City        27   32   +7      47.61     4.40     7.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.46R    0.02  
Sunderland      27   31   -8      43.58     4.44   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     5.14R    0.29  
Hull            27   29  -17      40.29     4.34   -23.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    22.95R    2.06  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.00     4.59    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    10.46R    1.01  
Newcastle       27   28  -10      39.30     4.28   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.54R    2.69  
Portsmouth      27   28  -15      40.74     4.53   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    19.71R    2.23  
Blackburn       26   26  -13      38.68     4.54   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.00R    5.48  
Middlesbrough   27   26  -16      36.53     4.19   -22.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.24R    9.19  
Stoke           27   26  -19      38.81     4.56   -22.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.32R    5.77  
West_Brom       28   22  -29      30.81     4.00   -37.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.82R   71.23  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Blackpool vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    35   64  +20      84.18     4.56    28.36    33.04    69.52    99.59    77.17P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   62  +30      85.47     4.64    40.69    52.66    80.95    99.80    87.80P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       35   61  +10      79.04     4.61    14.27     6.76    21.17    93.32    38.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   56  +16      78.63     5.12    23.10     6.37    21.58    90.52    41.72P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          36   56   +3      70.60     4.31     4.43     0.03     0.43    35.41     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        34   55  +15      74.34     4.74    19.32     1.00     4.88    72.28    23.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   55   +0      68.58     4.35    -0.24     0.01     0.14    19.87     3.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     35   54   +7      69.67     4.59     8.04     0.03     0.46    31.03     7.05P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          35   53  +13      70.92     4.56    17.29     0.09     0.84    44.50    11.97P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   50   +7      63.49     4.23     6.47     0.00     0.01     3.40     0.73P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              35   48   +0      62.63     4.48    -0.36     0.00     0.00     2.61     0.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        36   48   -8      59.60     4.28   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.05P    0.44R    0.00  
Coventry         34   47   -1      63.43     4.79    -0.82     0.00     0.01     4.05     0.71P    0.05R    0.00  
Doncaster        35   46   -9      57.60     4.30   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.26R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   44   +3      61.49     5.15     2.65     0.00     0.01     2.92     0.64P    0.33R    0.00  
Derby            34   42   -4      56.99     4.82    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    3.17R    0.05  
Plymouth         36   42  -11      53.47     4.12   -13.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.30R    0.10  
Nottm_Forest     36   40  -12      51.36     4.26   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.14R    0.48  
Watford          34   39   -6      56.09     4.90    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    5.61R    0.12  
Barnsley         34   39  -12      51.51     4.55   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.31R    0.62  
Blackpool        36   39  -15      50.39     4.15   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.13R    1.27  
Southampton      35   37  -15      49.58     4.49   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.50R    2.55  
Norwich          36   36   -9      47.97     4.26   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.85R    3.52  
Charlton         35   27  -22      37.41     4.24   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.90R   91.30  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crewe vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        35   75  +36      97.69     4.27    48.23    87.92    99.62   100.00    99.75P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     35   63  +17      80.70     4.65    21.50     0.22     8.16    92.24    30.86P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.48     5.21    41.41    11.75    85.54    99.74    90.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   58  +11      76.13     4.62    15.65     0.01     1.71    70.17    18.59P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         33   58   +8      76.81     5.18     9.34     0.07     3.01    70.18    17.60P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            34   55  +13      73.56     4.88    16.06     0.00     0.63    49.56    13.18P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       33   54   +9      74.36     5.10    13.02     0.02     1.15    54.66    13.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        35   53  +12      70.73     4.64    15.87     0.00     0.12    28.12     7.89P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +6      69.38     4.85     7.37     0.00     0.04    18.43     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     34   49   -4      65.11     4.79    -4.77     0.00     0.00     3.66     0.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          34   47   +1      64.96     4.85     3.36     0.00     0.00     4.19     0.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       34   47   +1      63.46     4.81     0.91     0.00     0.00     2.20     0.50P    0.07R    0.00  
Southend         34   46   -9      60.73     4.80   -11.51     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.07P    0.35R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.75     5.48    12.75     0.00     0.01     6.26     1.75P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool       35   43   -5      57.78     4.71    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.39R    0.00  
Carlisle         34   40   -8      56.42     4.85    -8.25     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.41R    0.01  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.28     5.32    -2.50     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    6.35R    0.01  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.77     4.93   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.89R    0.12  
Swindon          33   34   -8      50.92     5.10    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.72R    0.15  
Crewe            33   34  -18      47.21     4.81   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.38R    1.26  
Leyton_Orient    34   33  -16      46.22     4.65   -20.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.58R    1.36  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.70     5.03   -22.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.93R    1.08  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.22     5.30   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.05R    2.63  
Cheltenham       33   22  -35      32.73     4.54   -49.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   93.39  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Barnet vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            34   65  +23      86.08     4.63    30.00    55.02    93.24    99.84    95.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   61  +19      83.92     4.85    26.47    32.04    84.07    99.20    88.77P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   58  +18      76.04     4.84    20.67     2.58    27.65    82.69    40.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 34   56  +13      75.91     4.71    18.50     1.77    24.59    82.49    39.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             34   55  +13      72.90     4.83    15.36     0.59     9.75    61.58    21.43P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               34   55  +11      72.27     4.74    12.45     0.39     7.21    55.76    17.98P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           32   54  +18      78.03     5.25    25.48     7.42    45.18    90.03    58.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54   +2      68.84     4.75    -0.31     0.06     1.91    26.37     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   53  +15      69.87     4.48    17.92     0.05     2.85    38.56    12.94P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            34   48  +17      67.78     4.85    22.58     0.02     1.28    26.01     8.30P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         31   44   +6      66.15     5.58     8.69     0.04     1.36    17.58     5.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   44   +6      65.71     5.32    10.11     0.01     0.80    15.03     4.32P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.09     4.68    -4.93     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   40  -11      55.69     5.08   -17.66     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         34   39  -10      53.86     4.59   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         34   36  -25      47.91     4.51   -33.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51R    0.01  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.90     4.91   -27.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.98R    0.02  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      60.02     6.15    15.99     0.00     0.11     3.97     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.52     4.83   -20.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.84R    0.13  
Barnet               33   30  -21      43.98     4.81   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.00R    0.30  
Chester              35   27  -29      38.07     4.32   -35.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.28R    3.60  
Bournemouth          34   24   -6      40.24     4.82    -6.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.33R    1.76  
Grimsby              34   23  -27      35.92     4.64   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.61R   10.29  
Luton                33   10   -5      27.00     5.04    -6.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.44R   83.88  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2009, Crawley_Town vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.56     5.11    36.36    89.40    99.96    91.99P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               32   63  +24      86.41     5.37    30.55     7.87    91.33    29.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        35   61  +16      80.63     4.48    22.72     0.39    65.90    17.48P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            35   60  +13      75.36     4.72    13.28     0.01    22.52     3.88P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +18      80.67     5.16    23.72     1.06    64.63    16.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   58  +11      73.45     4.57    11.56     0.00    11.70     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   54  +18      73.72     5.19    20.88     0.03    18.29     4.59P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              31   53  +20      79.90     5.59    30.07     0.65    60.93    17.12P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.14     5.66    12.19     0.04    19.35     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            29   50  +11      78.13     5.99    18.28     0.53    44.45    12.18P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.42     4.74    19.96     0.00     0.67     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      63.99     5.00     5.26     0.00     0.25     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   33   43  -11      59.47     5.07   -13.45     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Altrincham           33   43  -14      58.44     4.91   -17.53     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.13     5.00   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.65     4.95   -20.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.25R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      56.00     5.21     0.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.58R    0.00  
Forest_Green         33   35  -10      51.29     4.98   -12.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.66R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.45     5.82    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.18R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.67     4.34   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.46R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.58     4.96   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.95R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       32   31  -14      44.70     4.91   -22.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.64R    0.00  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.43     4.73   -32.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.96R    3.60  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.60     3.57   -65.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   96.40  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4