Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 March 2009 at 22:04:07 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2009, Aston_Villa vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.78     4.16    50.18    93.41    98.89    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   55  +31      78.80     4.16    44.17     4.52    66.07    95.02    99.39   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   55  +23      76.51     4.28    33.11     2.00    31.45    84.82    98.07   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   52  +15      70.06     4.51    19.83     0.06     3.37    17.72    77.75    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   46  +13      63.96     4.43    17.66     0.00     0.20     2.07    17.87    95.53     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   44   +8      60.86     4.63    10.72     0.00     0.02     0.43     6.74    81.90     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        27   36   -1      50.61     4.50    -1.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     5.38     0.09R    0.00  
Wigan           27   35   +1      51.64     4.63     3.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     9.18     0.04R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.04     4.70     2.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.95     0.14R    0.00  
Bolton          27   33   -8      47.12     4.57    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85     1.13R    0.05  
Man_City        27   32   +7      47.57     4.42     7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.93     0.54R    0.01  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.22     4.65   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     4.53R    0.30  
Hull            27   29  -17      40.40     4.33   -23.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    22.85R    2.54  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.06     4.61    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    11.17R    1.18  
Newcastle       27   28  -10      39.33     4.28   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    27.10R    3.25  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.23     4.70   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    18.89R    2.64  
Blackburn       26   26  -13      38.68     4.58   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.97R    6.55  
Middlesbrough   27   26  -16      36.45     4.20   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.41R   11.52  
Stoke           27   26  -19      38.72     4.54   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.86R    7.02  
West_Brom       27   22  -27      31.62     4.25   -36.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.30R   64.93  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2009, Sheff_Utd vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    35   64  +20      84.05     4.52    28.15    38.27    72.39    99.43    79.13P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       35   61  +10      79.14     4.53    14.41     8.64    24.80    92.80    40.92P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   59  +29      84.09     4.90    39.96    45.29    74.23    99.24    83.26P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          35   56   +4      72.20     4.59     5.77     0.27     1.79    47.07    10.08P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        34   55  +15      74.18     4.75    19.10     1.31     5.66    67.82    22.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     35   54   +7      69.48     4.58     7.78     0.06     0.51    26.89     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +14      77.40     5.37    21.64     5.87    18.64    83.74    37.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          34   52  +13      71.43     4.82    17.55     0.26     1.69    46.02    13.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   52   -1      66.87     4.61    -1.44     0.01     0.10    11.13     1.94P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          35   50  +10      66.46     4.46    12.05     0.02     0.12    11.47     2.84P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              34   48   +1      65.00     4.83     1.95     0.00     0.05     7.00     1.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        35   48   -7      60.63     4.52   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.12P    0.11R    0.00  
Coventry         34   47   -1      63.28     4.78    -1.09     0.00     0.01     3.41     0.64P    0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   44   +3      61.62     5.14     2.84     0.00     0.01     2.63     0.54P    0.13R    0.00  
Doncaster        34   43  -10      55.49     4.47   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.70R    0.03  
Derby            33   41   -4      57.30     5.06    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    1.88R    0.05  
Watford          33   39   -5      57.74     5.13    -3.76     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    2.09R    0.08  
Barnsley         33   39  -10      52.50     4.75   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.06R    0.51  
Plymouth         35   39  -12      51.69     4.38   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.72R    0.58  
Blackpool        35   39  -14      52.14     4.44   -16.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.81R    0.89  
Nottm_Forest     35   37  -13      49.47     4.49   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.01R    2.21  
Southampton      34   34  -18      46.25     4.59   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.88R   11.74  
Norwich          35   33  -10      45.47     4.46   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.87R   11.75  
Charlton         34   27  -21      39.25     4.56   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.70R   72.15  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 March 2009, Oldham vs Leeds; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        34   74  +36      98.91     4.50    49.62    91.09    99.75   100.00    99.86P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.37     5.25    41.31     8.73    86.87    99.73    91.16P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     34   60  +16      79.33     4.90    20.81     0.13     6.19    86.80    27.92P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   58  +11      76.07     4.65    15.55     0.01     1.95    69.07    18.32P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            34   55  +13      73.52     4.92    15.98     0.00     0.75    49.58    13.68P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   55   +7      75.03     5.38     8.10     0.02     1.83    56.92    13.82P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       32   53   +9      75.45     5.36    14.22     0.02     2.33    62.49    16.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        34   52  +12      70.27     4.78    14.62     0.00     0.09    25.06     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   52   +7      71.10     5.11     8.88     0.00     0.22    29.44     7.24P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     33   48   -4      65.58     5.03    -4.60     0.00     0.01     5.03     0.96P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          33   46   +1      64.83     5.06     2.51     0.00     0.01     4.65     1.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       33   46   +1      63.61     5.07     0.59     0.00     0.00     2.80     0.61P    0.08R    0.00  
Southend         33   46   -8      62.45     5.10   -10.02     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.24P    0.22R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.91     5.48    12.98     0.00     0.02     6.82     1.91P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool       34   40   -6      55.89     4.97    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    4.83R    0.02  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.23     5.32    -2.56     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    7.15R    0.01  
Carlisle         33   37   -9      54.52     5.13    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    9.94R    0.04  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.89     4.94   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.50R    0.09  
Crewe            32   34  -17      48.82     5.10   -25.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.05R    0.81  
Swindon          32   33   -8      52.34     5.39    -8.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.11R    0.17  
Leyton_Orient    33   33  -15      47.12     4.82   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.31R    0.93  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.52     5.05   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.01R    1.04  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.18     5.30   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.82R    2.28  
Cheltenham       32   21  -35      32.16     4.69   -51.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.81R   94.62  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Aldershot vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            33   62  +22      85.09     4.89    29.97    48.58    86.65    99.46    90.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   58  +19      78.40     5.12    23.21     7.78    41.17    89.84    52.42P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   58  +17      83.04     5.05    25.58    28.72    75.14    98.25    82.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   56  +14      78.13     4.95    20.73     5.87    36.92    89.70    49.64P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               33   54  +11      72.17     5.00    11.80     0.66     6.55    51.54    16.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   53   +2      68.69     4.97    -1.29     0.07     1.81    23.88     5.07P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   52  +15      70.58     4.70    18.46     0.20     3.55    42.07    13.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             33   52  +12      72.36     5.04    16.16     0.63     7.54    55.08    18.42P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           31   51  +17      77.30     5.49    25.91     7.24    35.56    85.86    50.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   48  +20      70.67     5.06    27.96     0.22     4.37    45.93    17.17P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.05     4.65    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   41   +5      63.56     5.83     6.12     0.02     0.51     8.63     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   41   +3      62.51     5.57     4.71     0.00     0.15     5.53     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   40   -9      57.17     5.33   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         33   39   -9      54.47     4.80   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         33   36  -24      48.40     4.67   -34.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39R    0.02  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.67     4.88   -27.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.13R    0.04  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      59.65     6.18    15.45     0.00     0.06     3.14     1.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.70     4.84   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.76R    0.22  
Barnet               32   27  -22      41.93     5.06   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.37R    1.73  
Chester              34   27  -27      38.70     4.48   -34.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.76R    4.07  
Grimsby              33   23  -26      36.87     4.81   -32.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.39R    9.80  
Bournemouth          33   21   -8      38.64     5.06    -8.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.02R    4.96  
Luton                32    9   -5      27.89     5.35    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.17R   79.15  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 March 2009, Histon vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.69     5.12    36.59    89.31    99.96    92.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               32   63  +24      86.50     5.37    30.64     7.74    92.25    29.76P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        35   61  +16      80.56     4.48    22.64     0.37    67.40    17.72P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            34   59  +13      76.69     4.95    14.85     0.06    33.83     6.29P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56  +17      79.38     5.44    23.16     0.69    57.02    14.61P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55   +8      71.25     4.85     7.62     0.00     6.59     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              30   53  +21      81.51     5.84    31.57     1.44    71.98    20.68P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.10     5.64    12.10     0.05    20.18     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   51  +17      71.66     5.49    19.13     0.01    12.31     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.74     6.22    16.49     0.34    37.25    10.23P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.53     4.70    20.14     0.00     0.84     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      63.94     4.97     5.23     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   32   43   -8      61.48     5.39    -9.44     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Altrincham           32   43  -12      59.43     5.13   -15.95     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.07R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.22     4.99   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.54     4.95   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.92R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      56.05     5.24     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.38     5.83    -7.05     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.43R    0.00  
Forest_Green         32   34  -10      50.93     5.18   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.53R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.79     4.33   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.12R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.49     4.91   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.44R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       31   31  -13      45.66     5.14   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.09R    0.00  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.39     4.71   -32.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.54R    3.63  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.64     3.57   -65.72     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.36  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4