Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 1 March 2009 at 23:09:46 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2009, Aston_Villa vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.81     4.15    50.22    93.66    98.95    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   55  +31      78.75     4.19    44.07     4.36    65.65    94.71    99.45   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   55  +23      76.51     4.29    33.13     1.93    31.89    84.90    97.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   52  +15      70.08     4.47    19.86     0.05     3.27    18.08    77.93    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   46  +13      63.96     4.43    17.67     0.01     0.21     1.99    17.64    95.44     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   44   +8      60.90     4.62    10.80     0.00     0.03     0.39     6.89    82.57     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        27   36   -1      50.63     4.52    -1.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.45     0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           27   35   +1      51.52     4.61     3.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     8.73     0.03R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.04     4.70     2.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.91     0.13R    0.00  
Bolton          27   33   -8      47.08     4.56    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87     1.14R    0.04  
Man_City        27   32   +7      47.52     4.39     7.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.52R    0.03  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.27     4.65   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     4.44R    0.24  
Hull            27   29  -17      40.32     4.30   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.11R    2.61  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.01     4.60    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    11.37R    1.25  
Newcastle       27   28  -10      39.40     4.29   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    26.38R    3.36  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.29     4.71   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    18.40R    2.58  
Blackburn       26   26  -13      38.66     4.56   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.24R    6.73  
Middlesbrough   27   26  -16      36.45     4.21   -22.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.79R   11.69  
Stoke           27   26  -19      38.72     4.54   -22.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    36.20R    7.08  
West_Brom       27   22  -27      31.68     4.26   -35.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.19R   64.38  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2009, Sheff_Utd vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    35   64  +20      84.02     4.56    28.14    38.12    72.16    99.42    78.92P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       35   61  +10      79.19     4.56    14.47     9.05    25.45    92.80    41.58P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   59  +29      84.06     4.91    39.87    44.87    74.00    99.26    83.18P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          35   56   +4      72.17     4.60     5.69     0.29     1.76    46.24     9.52P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        34   55  +15      74.22     4.75    19.15     1.29     5.59    68.71    22.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     35   54   +7      69.40     4.63     7.71     0.06     0.47    26.56     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +14      77.42     5.36    21.67     6.03    18.56    83.83    37.24P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          34   52  +13      71.37     4.82    17.43     0.27     1.76    45.70    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   52   -1      66.84     4.64    -1.49     0.00     0.07    11.26     1.82P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          35   50  +10      66.46     4.49    12.08     0.02     0.12    11.75     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              34   48   +1      64.96     4.80     1.88     0.00     0.04     6.99     1.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        35   48   -7      60.73     4.56   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.10P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry         34   47   -1      63.29     4.78    -1.05     0.00     0.01     3.47     0.64P    0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   44   +3      61.67     5.14     2.96     0.00     0.01     2.62     0.58P    0.12R    0.00  
Doncaster        34   43  -10      55.43     4.48   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.96R    0.05  
Derby            33   41   -4      57.31     5.07    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    1.84R    0.08  
Watford          33   39   -5      57.61     5.13    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    2.22R    0.08  
Barnsley         33   39  -10      52.49     4.76   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.10R    0.56  
Plymouth         35   39  -12      51.75     4.37   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   14.33R    0.54  
Blackpool        35   39  -14      52.19     4.45   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.63R    0.87  
Nottm_Forest     35   37  -13      49.53     4.51   -16.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.86R    2.16  
Southampton      34   34  -18      46.22     4.58   -24.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.03R   11.79  
Norwich          35   33  -10      45.46     4.42   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.96R   11.75  
Charlton         34   27  -21      39.31     4.57   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.79R   72.12  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Brighton vs Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        34   74  +36      98.83     4.51    49.48    90.65    99.77   100.00    99.85P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.38     5.23    41.31     9.12    86.17    99.69    90.63P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     34   60  +16      79.30     4.94    20.76     0.16     6.07    86.38    27.57P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   57  +11      76.79     4.91    16.10     0.02     2.83    72.76    20.53P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   55   +7      74.90     5.42     7.92     0.01     1.77    55.39    13.35P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            33   54  +13      73.50     5.14    15.38     0.00     0.82    48.71    13.19P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       32   53   +9      75.43     5.34    14.14     0.03     2.22    62.29    15.85P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        34   52  +12      70.40     4.80    14.84     0.00     0.12    25.73     7.28P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   52   +7      71.00     5.14     8.71     0.00     0.20    28.28     7.00P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     33   48   -4      65.74     5.04    -4.32     0.00     0.02     5.19     0.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          33   46   +1      64.88     5.09     2.58     0.00     0.01     4.81     1.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       33   46   +1      63.57     5.08     0.47     0.00     0.00     2.83     0.68P    0.11R    0.00  
Southend         33   46   -8      62.33     5.06   -10.22     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.21P    0.19R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.82     5.49    12.81     0.00     0.01     6.52     1.82P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool       34   40   -6      55.89     4.95    -7.12     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.04R    0.00  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.34     5.32    -2.36     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    6.90R    0.01  
Carlisle         33   37   -9      54.46     5.12    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.25R    0.04  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.94     4.95   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.87R    0.09  
Crewe            32   34  -17      48.93     5.12   -25.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.52R    0.72  
Swindon          32   33   -8      52.43     5.39    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.97R    0.20  
Leyton_Orient    33   33  -15      47.22     4.85   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.22R    1.01  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.51     5.03   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.88R    1.00  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.13     5.28   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.04R    2.34  
Cheltenham       32   21  -35      32.16     4.69   -51.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   94.60  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Aldershot vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            33   62  +22      85.10     4.84    29.96    48.28    87.11    99.50    90.78P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   58  +19      78.26     5.09    23.02     7.30    39.76    89.55    51.29P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   58  +17      83.19     5.03    25.79    29.70    75.95    98.33    82.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   56  +14      78.29     4.95    20.96     6.08    38.06    90.32    51.00P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               33   54  +11      72.15     4.95    11.82     0.52     6.33    51.87    15.89P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   53   +2      68.58     4.98    -1.46     0.11     1.81    23.55     5.10P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   52  +15      70.58     4.75    18.43     0.19     3.82    42.57    14.35P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             33   52  +12      72.26     5.07    16.01     0.61     7.35    54.85    18.05P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           31   51  +17      77.26     5.48    25.83     7.00    35.14    85.97    49.74P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   48  +20      70.53     5.05    27.78     0.18     3.98    45.05    16.06P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.03     4.71    -5.01     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   41   +5      63.51     5.82     6.04     0.02     0.41     8.45     2.12P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   41   +3      62.54     5.54     4.75     0.00     0.18     5.55     1.39P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   40   -9      57.12     5.36   -15.54     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         33   39   -9      54.49     4.80   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         33   36  -24      48.52     4.66   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.01  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.68     4.89   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.12R    0.06  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      59.86     6.16    15.76     0.00     0.08     3.35     1.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.66     4.84   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.72R    0.24  
Barnet               32   27  -22      41.85     5.07   -29.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.83R    1.73  
Chester              34   27  -27      38.68     4.45   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.76R    4.07  
Grimsby              33   23  -26      36.94     4.85   -32.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.13R    9.84  
Bournemouth          33   21   -8      38.65     5.07    -8.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.83R    4.95  
Luton                32    9   -5      27.91     5.36    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.17R   79.11  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Altrincham vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.58     5.13    36.41    86.99    99.96    90.25P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               31   62  +24      87.15     5.63    31.13     9.87    92.60    31.69P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        34   60  +16      80.71     4.75    22.35     0.56    67.50    18.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            34   59  +13      76.66     4.97    14.80     0.06    33.48     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56  +17      79.33     5.37    23.07     0.65    56.64    14.38P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55   +8      71.34     4.86     7.75     0.00     6.68     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              30   53  +21      81.41     5.88    31.41     1.50    71.28    20.30P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.20     5.70    12.27     0.06    20.91     4.44P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   51  +17      71.73     5.53    19.29     0.02    12.86     3.22P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.71     6.14    16.46     0.30    36.88     9.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.51     4.74    20.11     0.00     0.80     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      63.84     4.99     5.08     0.00     0.26     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   32   43   -8      61.50     5.40    -9.41     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Altrincham           32   43  -12      59.37     5.13   -16.01     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.15     5.00   -14.36     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.56     4.96   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.18R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      56.15     5.20     0.52     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.65R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.29     5.82    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.54R    0.00  
Forest_Green         32   34  -10      50.84     5.19   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.76R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.76     4.33   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.97R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.57     4.92   -22.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.00R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       31   31  -13      45.81     5.17   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.20R    0.00  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.38     4.70   -32.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.43R    3.79  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.69     3.60   -65.64     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.21  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4