Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 1 March 2009 at 22:06:38 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2009, Aston_Villa vs Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.81     4.13    50.28    93.70    98.93    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   55  +31      78.75     4.19    44.16     4.35    65.67    94.91    99.34   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   55  +23      76.53     4.27    33.12     1.89    31.97    85.31    98.07   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   52  +15      69.99     4.50    19.74     0.06     3.19    17.41    77.72    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   46  +13      63.89     4.43    17.55     0.00     0.21     1.98    17.53    95.37     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   44   +8      60.94     4.58    10.83     0.00     0.02     0.45     7.15    83.01     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        27   36   -1      50.65     4.52    -1.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     5.22     0.05R    0.00  
Wigan           27   35   +1      51.45     4.60     3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     8.38     0.04R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.08     4.71     2.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.15     0.18R    0.00  
Bolton          27   33   -8      47.21     4.57    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90     1.16R    0.03  
Man_City        27   32   +7      47.59     4.44     7.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.77     0.55R    0.02  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.23     4.67   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     4.53R    0.26  
Hull            27   29  -17      40.36     4.33   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    23.23R    2.46  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.07     4.57    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    10.91R    1.17  
Newcastle       27   28  -10      39.38     4.27   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    26.54R    3.22  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.22     4.68   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    18.45R    2.57  
Blackburn       26   26  -13      38.57     4.59   -19.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.98R    6.80  
Middlesbrough   27   26  -16      36.49     4.21   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.11R   11.66  
Stoke           27   26  -19      38.74     4.58   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.84R    7.11  
West_Brom       27   22  -27      31.65     4.23   -36.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.44R   64.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2009, Sheff_Utd vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    35   64  +20      84.03     4.54    28.15    38.61    72.05    99.46    78.63P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       35   61  +10      79.11     4.52    14.39     8.48    24.72    92.66    40.82P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   59  +29      84.09     4.97    39.93    45.00    74.14    99.15    82.98P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          35   56   +4      72.14     4.62     5.68     0.26     1.76    46.33     9.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        34   55  +15      74.16     4.78    19.12     1.34     5.78    67.89    22.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     35   54   +7      69.50     4.59     7.82     0.09     0.54    27.33     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +14      77.45     5.33    21.69     5.95    19.02    84.08    37.59P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          34   52  +13      71.39     4.79    17.49     0.25     1.69    45.56    13.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   52   -1      66.77     4.63    -1.57     0.01     0.12    10.80     1.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          35   50  +10      66.53     4.50    12.14     0.01     0.10    12.13     3.08P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              34   48   +1      65.01     4.79     1.94     0.00     0.06     7.07     1.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        35   48   -7      60.58     4.50   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.13P    0.10R    0.00  
Coventry         34   47   -1      63.28     4.81    -1.05     0.00     0.02     3.60     0.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   44   +3      61.66     5.15     2.92     0.00     0.01     2.56     0.58P    0.12R    0.00  
Doncaster        34   43  -10      55.52     4.49   -15.08     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.85R    0.04  
Derby            33   41   -4      57.31     5.12    -6.46     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    1.98R    0.06  
Watford          33   39   -5      57.74     5.08    -3.79     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    2.12R    0.07  
Barnsley         33   39  -10      52.34     4.69   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.44R    0.51  
Plymouth         35   39  -12      51.65     4.40   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.24R    0.62  
Blackpool        35   39  -14      52.18     4.46   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.90R    0.86  
Nottm_Forest     35   37  -13      49.58     4.50   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.38R    2.13  
Southampton      34   34  -18      46.30     4.59   -24.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.67R   11.73  
Norwich          35   33  -10      45.51     4.48   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.26R   11.51  
Charlton         34   27  -21      39.24     4.54   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.91R   72.47  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Brighton vs Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        34   74  +36      98.79     4.52    49.47    90.75    99.68   100.00    99.80P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.36     5.23    41.24     9.01    86.34    99.69    90.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     34   60  +16      79.33     4.87    20.81     0.15     5.87    86.53    27.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   57  +11      76.86     4.92    16.19     0.03     2.91    72.87    20.57P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   55   +7      75.06     5.38     8.14     0.02     1.79    56.50    13.41P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            33   54  +13      73.59     5.16    15.51     0.01     0.94    49.13    13.45P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       32   53   +9      75.46     5.34    14.21     0.03     2.18    61.76    15.99P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        34   52  +12      70.27     4.78    14.67     0.00     0.07    24.56     6.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   52   +7      71.03     5.15     8.77     0.00     0.17    28.29     6.71P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     33   48   -4      65.73     5.05    -4.39     0.00     0.01     5.24     0.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          33   46   +1      64.82     5.07     2.53     0.00     0.00     4.55     1.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       33   46   +1      63.48     5.06     0.34     0.00     0.00     2.62     0.58P    0.10R    0.00  
Southend         33   46   -8      62.36     5.06   -10.15     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.19P    0.20R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.99     5.53    13.10     0.00     0.01     6.87     2.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool       34   40   -6      55.90     4.98    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.10R    0.00  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.26     5.32    -2.49     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    7.07R    0.01  
Carlisle         33   37   -9      54.49     5.09    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.80R    0.04  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      52.01     4.95   -19.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.86R    0.09  
Crewe            32   34  -17      48.85     5.11   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.83R    0.72  
Swindon          32   33   -8      52.34     5.34    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.06R    0.14  
Leyton_Orient    33   33  -15      47.17     4.86   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.01R    0.99  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.46     5.04   -22.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.89R    1.24  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.10     5.32   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.12R    2.41  
Cheltenham       32   21  -35      32.16     4.72   -51.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.82R   94.36  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Aldershot vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            33   62  +22      85.13     4.85    30.05    48.45    86.98    99.48    90.66P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   58  +19      78.38     5.09    23.20     7.67    40.68    89.60    51.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   58  +17      83.23     5.04    25.85    29.43    75.88    98.37    82.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   56  +14      78.20     4.96    20.84     5.77    37.12    89.83    50.04P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               33   54  +11      72.24     4.98    11.88     0.61     6.63    52.15    16.20P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   53   +2      68.66     5.00    -1.31     0.08     1.66    24.06     5.08P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   52  +15      70.66     4.75    18.56     0.18     3.73    43.02    14.66P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             33   52  +12      72.31     5.02    16.09     0.53     7.16    54.84    17.69P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           31   51  +17      77.34     5.48    25.97     7.06    35.26    86.01    49.79P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   48  +20      70.56     5.07    27.83     0.20     4.22    44.96    16.54P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      58.97     4.66    -5.10     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   41   +5      63.33     5.80     5.73     0.02     0.45     7.89     1.92P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   41   +3      62.45     5.52     4.61     0.00     0.14     5.34     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   40   -9      57.13     5.35   -15.51     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         33   39   -9      54.51     4.80   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         33   36  -24      48.50     4.68   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.02  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.70     4.90   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.23R    0.07  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      60.00     6.15    15.95     0.00     0.09     3.38     1.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.61     4.85   -20.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.81R    0.20  
Barnet               32   27  -22      41.71     5.07   -29.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.24R    1.73  
Chester              34   27  -27      38.70     4.45   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.34R    3.83  
Grimsby              33   23  -26      36.92     4.86   -32.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.89R    9.81  
Bournemouth          33   21   -8      38.60     5.09    -8.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.02R    5.03  
Luton                32    9   -5      27.80     5.39    -5.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.03R   79.32  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Altrincham vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.67     5.09    36.53    87.09    99.98    90.29P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               31   62  +24      87.27     5.68    31.30     9.99    92.78    32.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        34   60  +16      80.66     4.76    22.25     0.50    66.97    17.55P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            34   59  +13      76.80     4.92    15.04     0.06    34.39     6.53P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56  +17      79.45     5.36    23.26     0.64    57.66    14.46P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55   +8      71.18     4.80     7.53     0.00     6.23     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              30   53  +21      81.56     5.84    31.63     1.39    72.25    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.11     5.63    12.11     0.04    20.35     4.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   51  +17      71.72     5.51    19.24     0.01    12.57     3.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.50     6.16    16.24     0.29    35.63     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.46     4.73    20.01     0.00     0.79     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      63.87     4.98     5.08     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   32   43   -8      61.51     5.41    -9.39     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Altrincham           32   43  -12      59.46     5.13   -15.87     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.19     4.99   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.52     4.89   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.89R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      56.05     5.20     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.58R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.19     5.79    -7.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.55R    0.00  
Forest_Green         32   34  -10      50.82     5.15   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.68R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.85     4.30   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.58R    0.00  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.50     4.95   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.80R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       31   31  -13      45.67     5.19   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.56R    0.01  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.51     4.77   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.09R    3.74  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.73     3.59   -65.50     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.25  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4