Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 28 February 2009 at 22:06:40 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Arsenal vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.59     4.18    49.87    93.12    98.75    99.88   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   55  +31      78.73     4.21    44.16     4.74    63.74    92.25    99.23   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   55  +23      76.48     4.28    33.11     1.92    30.70    79.05    97.66   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   51  +15      71.73     4.69    21.89     0.22     6.63    26.80    84.86    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   46  +13      63.96     4.43    17.70     0.00     0.16     1.69    13.27    95.13     0.00     0.00  
Everton         27   44   +8      60.94     4.59    10.87     0.00     0.02     0.33     4.91    82.51     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           27   35   +1      51.70     4.62     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.87     0.05R    0.00  
Fulham          26   34   +2      50.01     4.70     2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.84     0.12R    0.00  
West_Ham        26   33   -2      48.94     4.80    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.26     0.37R    0.02  
Man_City        26   32   +8      49.15     4.72     9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.40     0.24R    0.01  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.16     4.67   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     4.15R    0.23  
Bolton          26   30   -9      45.60     4.87   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.58     3.07R    0.20  
Hull            26   29  -16      42.26     4.69   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    12.99R    1.17  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.09     4.60    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    10.01R    1.00  
Newcastle       26   28   -9      40.74     4.59   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    17.45R    1.68  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.22     4.71   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    17.46R    2.27  
Middlesbrough   27   26  -16      36.39     4.20   -22.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.95R   10.19  
Stoke           26   25  -19      37.83     4.69   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    42.30R    9.48  
Blackburn       25   23  -14      36.55     4.86   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.39R   14.32  
West_Brom       27   22  -27      31.71     4.24   -36.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.45R   59.44  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Barnsley vs QPR; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    35   64  +20      84.02     4.54    28.16    36.98    70.00    99.47    77.38P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       34   61  +11      80.38     4.75    15.30    13.14    33.15    95.40    47.89P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   59  +29      84.05     4.95    39.85    42.94    71.74    99.21    81.60P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          35   56   +4      72.17     4.58     5.73     0.32     1.70    48.56    10.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     35   54   +7      69.48     4.59     7.78     0.06     0.46    28.54     6.53P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +14      77.42     5.38    21.67     5.54    17.65    84.43    37.12P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   52  +14      72.50     5.00    18.03     0.75     3.47    55.92    17.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          34   52  +13      71.44     4.83    17.55     0.24     1.58    47.72    13.25P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   52   -1      66.86     4.61    -1.43     0.01     0.08    11.97     1.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          35   50  +10      66.51     4.48    12.16     0.02     0.09    12.66     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              34   48   +1      65.03     4.83     2.02     0.01     0.05     7.75     1.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        35   48   -7      60.66     4.52   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry         34   47   -1      63.35     4.77    -0.98     0.00     0.01     3.79     0.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   44   +3      61.70     5.14     2.98     0.00     0.02     3.01     0.69P    0.13R    0.00  
Doncaster        34   43  -10      55.48     4.51   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.94R    0.05  
Derby            33   41   -4      57.18     5.06    -6.65     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    1.98R    0.06  
Watford          33   39   -5      57.68     5.14    -3.90     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    2.28R    0.07  
Barnsley         33   39  -10      52.52     4.78   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.10R    0.44  
Plymouth         35   39  -12      51.69     4.39   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   14.58R    0.55  
Blackpool        35   39  -14      52.16     4.43   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.67R    0.85  
Nottm_Forest     35   37  -13      49.54     4.50   -16.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.44R    2.14  
Southampton      34   34  -18      46.21     4.57   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.28R   11.95  
Norwich          35   33  -10      45.45     4.46   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.87R   11.99  
Charlton         34   27  -21      39.28     4.58   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.58R   71.91  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Brighton vs Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        34   74  +36      98.79     4.53    49.44    90.57    99.74   100.00    99.83P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +28      89.28     5.25    41.12     9.23    85.96    99.67    90.60P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     34   60  +16      79.31     4.90    20.80     0.12     6.01    86.27    27.38P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   57  +11      76.81     4.90    16.13     0.01     2.73    72.42    20.00P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   55   +7      75.07     5.40     8.14     0.02     1.96    56.55    13.84P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            33   54  +13      73.57     5.14    15.47     0.00     0.88    48.97    13.38P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       32   53   +9      75.56     5.36    14.40     0.04     2.43    62.67    16.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        34   52  +12      70.29     4.78    14.67     0.00     0.08    24.88     6.92P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   52   +7      70.97     5.12     8.68     0.00     0.18    28.07     6.95P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     33   48   -4      65.69     5.03    -4.43     0.00     0.01     5.08     0.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          33   46   +1      64.85     5.06     2.55     0.00     0.00     4.74     1.13P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       33   46   +1      63.53     5.08     0.40     0.00     0.00     2.77     0.65P    0.12R    0.00  
Southend         33   46   -8      62.36     5.09   -10.13     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.23P    0.25R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   43   +9      64.89     5.49    12.94     0.00     0.01     6.47     1.76P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool       34   40   -6      55.96     4.94    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.72R    0.01  
Northampton      32   37   -1      55.44     5.33    -2.24     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.03P    6.78R    0.00  
Carlisle         33   37   -9      54.50     5.14    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.94R    0.03  
Yeovil           33   37  -16      51.96     4.96   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.61R    0.11  
Crewe            32   34  -17      48.84     5.10   -25.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.98R    0.63  
Swindon          32   33   -8      52.42     5.38    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   18.74R    0.16  
Leyton_Orient    33   33  -15      47.16     4.85   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.96R    0.91  
Brighton         32   32  -15      46.54     5.08   -22.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.30R    1.08  
Hereford         31   30  -16      45.06     5.33   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.62R    2.31  
Cheltenham       32   21  -35      32.05     4.64   -51.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   94.75  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Aldershot vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            33   62  +22      85.12     4.81    30.03    48.84    87.27    99.52    90.93P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   58  +19      78.28     5.08    23.02     7.57    40.26    89.54    51.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   58  +17      83.05     5.07    25.57    28.70    74.83    98.31    81.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 33   56  +14      78.16     4.97    20.78     5.85    37.54    89.76    50.09P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               33   54  +11      72.16     4.99    11.76     0.67     6.69    51.37    16.12P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   53   +2      68.69     4.98    -1.28     0.12     1.81    24.22     5.30P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   52  +15      70.63     4.74    18.52     0.18     3.82    42.77    14.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             33   52  +12      72.34     5.03    16.17     0.68     7.43    55.20    18.03P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           31   51  +17      77.35     5.43    26.00     7.16    35.57    86.17    50.42P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            33   48  +20      70.52     5.06    27.72     0.22     4.10    44.70    16.35P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   -3      59.00     4.67    -5.04     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         30   41   +5      63.43     5.87     5.90     0.01     0.46     8.40     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   41   +3      62.61     5.56     4.84     0.00     0.15     5.71     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   40   -9      57.17     5.34   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         33   39   -9      54.46     4.80   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         33   36  -24      48.51     4.64   -33.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39R    0.01  
Port_Vale            32   34  -17      46.76     4.90   -27.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.09R    0.07  
Rotherham            29   32   +9      59.72     6.16    15.54     0.00     0.06     3.21     1.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   30  -16      44.63     4.84   -20.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.77R    0.21  
Barnet               32   27  -22      41.79     5.09   -29.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.13R    1.71  
Chester              34   27  -27      38.74     4.49   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.84R    4.12  
Grimsby              33   23  -26      36.89     4.85   -32.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.25R   10.25  
Bournemouth          33   21   -8      38.68     5.09    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.65R    5.08  
Luton                32    9   -5      27.96     5.40    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.88R   78.55  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 February 2009, Altrincham vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        33   75  +29      97.73     5.10    36.63    87.66    99.98    90.84P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               31   62  +24      87.17     5.66    31.11     9.36    92.64    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        34   60  +16      80.64     4.77    22.26     0.51    66.89    17.74P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            34   59  +13      76.64     4.95    14.77     0.06    33.48     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56  +17      79.14     5.38    22.86     0.64    55.93    13.84P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55   +8      71.27     4.83     7.66     0.00     6.48     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              30   53  +21      81.50     5.86    31.53     1.42    72.06    20.49P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        31   52  +10      74.20     5.67    12.28     0.07    21.23     4.40P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   51  +17      71.57     5.50    19.03     0.01    12.06     2.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.77     6.17    16.56     0.26    37.89    10.29P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    34   46  +14      66.56     4.72    20.16     0.00     0.91     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   44   +2      63.98     4.98     5.24     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   32   43   -8      61.58     5.40    -9.29     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Altrincham           32   43  -12      59.51     5.15   -15.80     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Weymouth             33   42  -11      58.12     4.99   -14.42     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Salisbury            33   37  -14      50.56     4.90   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.79R    0.00  
York                 33   36   -3      56.04     5.24     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.27     5.81    -7.18     0.00     0.01     0.01P    1.46R    0.00  
Forest_Green         32   34  -10      50.75     5.15   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.07R    0.00  
Woking               35   33  -13      44.77     4.31   -17.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.63R    0.01  
Barrow               32   33  -15      47.55     4.93   -22.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.24R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       31   31  -13      45.79     5.17   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.60R    0.01  
Northwich            33   21  -25      34.42     4.74   -32.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.30R    3.68  
Lewes                34   17  -50      23.67     3.58   -65.65     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   96.31  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4