Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 February 2009 at 22:07:06 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 February 2009, Hull vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.72     4.14    50.11    90.28    98.07    99.85   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   55  +25      79.51     4.39    37.55     6.46    54.75    90.12    99.09   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   52  +30      78.01     4.42    44.34     3.05    42.04    87.16    98.48   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   51  +15      71.72     4.71    21.79     0.21     4.95    20.77    82.04    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   45  +13      64.86     4.62    18.51     0.00     0.18     1.88    16.67    95.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   41   +6      60.06     4.81    10.08     0.00     0.01     0.21     3.57    76.39     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           26   35   +2      52.18     4.78     3.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    12.10     0.02R    0.00  
Fulham          25   33   +2      49.91     4.94     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.97     0.16R    0.00  
West_Ham        26   33   -2      48.84     4.79    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.59     0.30R    0.01  
Man_City        26   32   +8      49.07     4.73     8.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.76     0.19R    0.01  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.16     4.65   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     3.32R    0.17  
Bolton          26   30   -9      45.84     4.87   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85     2.32R    0.12  
Hull            26   29  -16      42.28     4.64   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    10.85R    0.98  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.02     4.61    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     8.51R    0.84  
Newcastle       26   28   -9      40.65     4.56   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    15.06R    1.47  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.37     4.71   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    14.17R    1.69  
Stoke           26   25  -19      37.90     4.72   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    37.56R    8.00  
Blackburn       25   23  -14      36.46     4.86   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.98R   11.93  
Middlesbrough   26   23  -18      33.13     4.24   -26.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.87R   30.09  
West_Brom       26   22  -25      32.34     4.43   -35.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.69R   44.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 February 2009, Doncaster vs Derby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    34   64  +21      86.81     4.69    31.65    38.80    77.00    99.78    82.86P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       34   61  +11      80.47     4.73    15.39     5.71    19.68    93.60    37.55P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   59  +30      87.26     5.06    44.03    49.40    80.36    99.71    87.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   53  +15      79.66     5.60    23.96     5.58    18.93    88.77    39.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     34   53   +7      70.47     4.80     8.67     0.04     0.37    30.29     6.63P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          34   53   +3      70.51     4.84     4.69     0.03     0.33    28.84     5.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   52  +14      72.38     4.96    17.92     0.20     1.43    48.37    13.84P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   52   +1      69.27     4.90     2.19     0.01     0.15    21.29     3.65P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   51  +13      73.17     4.99    19.75     0.21     1.56    55.49    15.66P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          34   50  +11      67.80     4.74    13.02     0.01     0.10    16.35     3.91P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              33   48   +2      66.66     5.04     3.37     0.00     0.06    10.94     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        34   45   -9      57.83     4.69   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.37R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +5      63.21     5.39     5.08     0.00     0.03     4.55     1.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         33   44   -2      61.44     5.05    -2.35     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.31P    0.09R    0.00  
Doncaster        34   43  -10      55.42     4.48   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.34R    0.01  
Derby            33   41   -4      57.21     5.03    -6.65     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.94R    0.02  
Blackpool        34   38  -14      51.88     4.67   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.17R    0.72  
Watford          32   36   -7      56.13     5.37    -5.78     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    2.82R    0.21  
Barnsley         32   36  -11      50.31     4.98   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.94R    1.20  
Plymouth         34   36  -13      48.65     4.49   -18.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.05R    1.86  
Nottm_Forest     34   34  -14      46.54     4.59   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.34R    5.40  
Norwich          34   33   -9      47.23     4.71   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.17R    4.36  
Southampton      33   31  -19      43.83     4.76   -27.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.69R   18.83  
Charlton         33   26  -21      38.53     4.67   -30.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.06R   67.38  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 February 2009, Brighton vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        33   73  +36      99.35     4.75    49.73    88.57    99.35   100.00    99.61P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   61  +28      89.80     5.49    41.35    10.88    81.26    99.72    87.31P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     33   60  +17      81.66     5.09    23.44     0.38    10.91    92.93    33.48P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   55   +8      76.96     5.66     9.97     0.09     3.43    69.07    17.88P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           33   54  +10      74.76     5.15    14.51     0.00     1.17    56.78    14.88P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   53  +10      76.62     5.61    14.83     0.08     3.01    68.29    17.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            32   51  +12      72.22     5.45    14.96     0.00     0.56    39.03    10.45P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        33   51  +12      71.24     5.04    15.55     0.00     0.16    31.61     8.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         32   49   +6      69.59     5.43     8.09     0.00     0.09    21.02     5.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     32   47   -4      65.35     5.25    -5.52     0.00     0.01     5.16     0.91P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       32   45   +1      64.16     5.32     0.88     0.00     0.00     3.96     0.87P    0.15R    0.00  
Walsall          32   43   -1      63.48     5.31     0.92     0.00     0.00     3.32     0.70P    0.12R    0.00  
Southend         32   43   -9      59.49     5.22   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.06P    1.46R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   +9      65.39     5.79    13.14     0.00     0.04     8.52     2.40P    0.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool       33   39   -6      55.93     5.20    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.65R    0.02  
Yeovil           32   37  -14      53.06     5.20   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.47R    0.09  
Carlisle         32   36   -9      54.87     5.42    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   10.16R    0.06  
Northampton      31   34   -2      54.01     5.62    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   12.34R    0.11  
Swindon          31   33   -7      53.46     5.57    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   15.73R    0.15  
Leyton_Orient    32   33  -14      48.57     5.09   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.84R    0.81  
Brighton         31   32  -11      49.46     5.43   -15.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.54R    0.67  
Crewe            31   31  -21      45.84     5.21   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.12R    3.98  
Hereford         30   27  -17      43.25     5.49   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.73R    7.03  
Cheltenham       31   21  -34      33.48     5.00   -50.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   87.09  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 February 2009, Macclesfield vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            32   59  +21      83.52     5.10    29.08    33.23    74.18    97.97    81.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   57  +17      83.77     5.27    26.14    33.57    74.06    97.92    80.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   56  +15      79.15     5.20    21.35     9.27    40.00    89.45    51.41P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   55  +17      77.42     5.30    22.44     5.87    29.84    82.30    41.17P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52  +18      73.62     4.95    23.87     1.07    10.05    61.85    25.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             32   52  +14      74.74     5.31    19.72     1.97    14.74    67.10    26.69P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           30   51  +19      79.45     5.73    29.13    14.19    46.30    89.62    58.46P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               32   51   +9      69.73     5.20     8.61     0.18     2.45    28.16     7.62P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   50   +1      67.25     5.23    -2.03     0.08     0.84    14.48     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            32   47  +20      71.86     5.28    29.21     0.48     6.23    49.53    19.14P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   43   -3      59.08     4.87    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   41   +4      64.27     5.79     6.35     0.02     0.42     8.30     2.10P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   40   +5      65.04     6.05     8.00     0.08     0.85    11.29     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   37  -11      55.49     5.57   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Notts_County         32   36  -11      51.96     4.98   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale            31   34  -15      48.64     5.25   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56R    0.01  
Macclesfield         32   33  -27      45.36     4.78   -39.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.85R    0.12  
Accrington_Stanley   32   30  -14      45.94     5.12   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.76R    0.11  
Rotherham            28   29   +8      57.37     6.42    13.59     0.00     0.02     1.20     0.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               31   26  -22      41.25     5.31   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.07R    1.71  
Chester              33   26  -27      38.27     4.62   -35.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.09R    3.49  
Grimsby              32   23  -24      37.60     5.07   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.83R    6.10  
Bournemouth          32   21   -7      40.06     5.38    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.43R    2.36  
Luton                31    6   -7      26.01     5.60    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.33R   86.10  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 February 2009, Crawley_Town vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.79     5.33    37.72    89.94    99.98    92.51P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               30   59  +21      86.13     5.87    29.10     6.51    89.69    27.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        33   59  +16      81.51     5.03    22.99     0.68    73.73    20.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            33   56  +12      75.24     5.24    14.06     0.03    26.93     5.07P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +10      73.09     5.13    10.34     0.01    14.73     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   53  +15      77.08     5.65    20.18     0.21    41.80     9.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.27     6.07    34.01     2.33    80.95    24.24P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   50  +17      71.60     5.74    18.52     0.02    14.01     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.68     5.91    10.42     0.03    15.86     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.70     6.15    16.44     0.25    38.34    10.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    33   46  +15      68.72     4.98    22.36     0.00     3.35     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   31   43   -6      62.85     5.63    -7.47     0.00     0.37     0.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           31   43  -11      60.62     5.40   -15.14     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Weymouth             32   42   -9      59.53     5.24   -12.37     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.10R    0.00  
Mansfield            32   41   +1      61.62     5.19     3.18     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury            32   36  -14      49.61     5.08   -23.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.10R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.32     5.78    -7.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41R    0.00  
York                 32   33   -5      54.27     5.55    -1.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.86R    0.00  
Forest_Green         31   33  -10      51.74     5.43   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.48R    0.00  
Woking               34   32  -13      44.37     4.53   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.22R    0.00  
Barrow               31   32  -15      48.60     5.25   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.56R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       30   30  -13      45.68     5.39   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.42R    0.02  
Northwich            32   20  -25      34.59     5.03   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.76R    5.19  
Lewes                33   17  -47      24.31     3.78   -64.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   94.78  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4