Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 26 February 2009 at 22:06:45 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 February 2009, Hull vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.64     4.18    49.97    89.73    97.87    99.83    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   55  +25      79.46     4.43    37.51     6.61    54.37    89.95    98.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   52  +30      78.04     4.40    44.43     3.43    42.50    87.05    98.39   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   51  +15      71.73     4.69    21.88     0.23     5.00    20.94    81.99    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   45  +13      64.91     4.62    18.56     0.00     0.26     2.01    16.73    96.15     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   41   +6      60.14     4.84    10.20     0.00     0.00     0.22     3.86    76.72     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           26   35   +2      52.18     4.75     3.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    11.58     0.03R    0.00  
Fulham          25   33   +2      49.85     4.94     1.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.93     0.16R    0.01  
West_Ham        26   33   -2      48.79     4.81    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.65     0.34R    0.01  
Man_City        26   32   +8      49.09     4.70     8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.62     0.18R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.19     4.66   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     3.27R    0.15  
Bolton          26   30   -9      45.79     4.88   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76     2.38R    0.14  
Hull            26   29  -16      42.33     4.71   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    11.04R    1.03  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.01     4.60    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     8.71R    0.92  
Newcastle       26   28   -9      40.61     4.55   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    15.32R    1.49  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.31     4.72   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    14.25R    1.70  
Stoke           26   25  -19      37.86     4.67   -24.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.87R    8.05  
Blackburn       25   23  -14      36.41     4.83   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    48.44R   12.38  
Middlesbrough   26   23  -18      33.26     4.29   -26.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.79R   29.30  
West_Brom       26   22  -25      32.36     4.46   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.21R   44.82  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 February 2009, Cardiff vs QPR; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    34   64  +21      86.83     4.66    31.67    39.15    76.86    99.79    82.73P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       34   61  +11      80.43     4.77    15.36     5.76    19.56    93.25    36.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   59  +30      87.21     5.03    43.93    49.05    80.07    99.71    87.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   53  +15      79.80     5.57    24.10     5.58    19.51    89.22    40.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     34   53   +7      70.39     4.80     8.56     0.03     0.33    29.79     6.31P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          34   53   +3      70.60     4.81     4.85     0.03     0.32    29.44     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   52  +14      72.43     4.98    17.96     0.20     1.42    48.52    14.20P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   52   +1      69.29     4.88     2.23     0.01     0.17    21.15     3.62P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   51  +13      73.17     4.99    19.78     0.19     1.59    55.75    15.77P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          34   50  +11      67.71     4.71    12.88     0.01     0.09    15.69     3.85P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              33   48   +2      66.67     5.06     3.42     0.00     0.05    11.12     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        34   45   -9      57.75     4.67   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    0.37R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +5      63.08     5.45     4.91     0.00     0.03     4.33     0.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Coventry         33   44   -2      61.39     5.03    -2.44     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.25P    0.08R    0.00  
Derby            32   41   -3      58.81     5.31    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.12P    0.52R    0.02  
Doncaster        33   40  -11      53.52     4.70   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.41R    0.15  
Blackpool        34   38  -14      51.99     4.68   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.56R    0.69  
Watford          32   36   -7      56.21     5.40    -5.67     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    2.73R    0.13  
Barnsley         32   36  -11      50.33     4.95   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.49R    1.08  
Plymouth         34   36  -13      48.68     4.50   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.49R    1.86  
Nottm_Forest     34   34  -14      46.46     4.60   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.91R    5.88  
Norwich          34   33   -9      47.21     4.71   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.95R    4.33  
Southampton      33   31  -19      43.87     4.77   -27.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.73R   18.93  
Charlton         33   26  -21      38.55     4.68   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.75R   66.94  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 February 2009, Brighton vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        33   73  +36      99.25     4.78    49.52    88.41    99.32   100.00    99.58P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   61  +28      89.67     5.49    41.17    11.00    80.60    99.66    86.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     33   60  +17      81.79     5.08    23.66     0.44    11.75    93.53    34.57P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   55   +8      76.95     5.68     9.99     0.08     3.36    68.76    17.68P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           33   54  +10      74.72     5.15    14.45     0.00     1.23    56.59    14.68P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   53  +10      76.59     5.58    14.85     0.06     3.03    68.17    17.81P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            32   51  +12      72.21     5.39    14.92     0.00     0.46    39.05    10.53P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        33   51  +12      71.28     5.06    15.61     0.00     0.17    31.93     8.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   49   +6      69.68     5.38     8.24     0.00     0.06    21.43     4.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     32   47   -4      65.31     5.21    -5.57     0.00     0.01     4.96     0.85P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       32   45   +1      64.27     5.33     1.03     0.00     0.00     4.12     0.85P    0.16R    0.00  
Walsall          32   43   -1      63.43     5.31     0.84     0.00     0.00     3.00     0.63P    0.20R    0.00  
Southend         32   43   -9      59.55     5.22   -13.05     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    1.53R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   +9      65.34     5.78    13.06     0.00     0.01     8.20     2.16P    0.12R    0.00  
Hartlepool       33   39   -6      56.00     5.20    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    5.72R    0.01  
Yeovil           32   37  -14      53.20     5.21   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    16.93R    0.10  
Carlisle         32   36   -9      54.98     5.44    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    9.88R    0.05  
Northampton      31   34   -2      53.81     5.64    -3.30     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   13.07R    0.08  
Swindon          31   33   -7      53.44     5.58    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.74R    0.17  
Leyton_Orient    32   33  -14      48.42     5.10   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.85R    0.93  
Brighton         31   32  -11      49.36     5.42   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.09R    0.58  
Crewe            31   31  -21      46.03     5.24   -31.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.85R    3.54  
Hereford         30   27  -17      43.30     5.50   -25.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.25R    6.60  
Cheltenham       31   21  -34      33.37     4.97   -50.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.57R   87.94  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 February 2009, Macclesfield vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            32   59  +21      83.64     5.11    29.22    34.34    74.70    98.12    81.30P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   57  +17      83.67     5.33    26.01    32.92    73.32    97.72    80.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   56  +15      79.09     5.18    21.23     8.72    39.70    89.27    51.28P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   55  +17      77.31     5.32    22.23     5.62    29.18    81.88    40.51P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52  +18      73.66     4.95    23.96     1.09    10.26    61.87    25.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             32   52  +14      74.62     5.32    19.57     1.92    14.19    66.48    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           30   51  +19      79.56     5.72    29.25    14.45    47.43    89.84    59.38P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               32   51   +9      69.75     5.20     8.64     0.18     2.54    28.32     7.67P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   50   +1      67.24     5.25    -2.03     0.08     0.94    14.57     3.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            32   47  +20      71.89     5.29    29.28     0.57     6.45    49.84    19.55P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   43   -3      59.13     4.88    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   41   +4      64.44     5.77     6.59     0.03     0.38     8.66     2.26P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   40   +5      65.06     6.08     8.04     0.08     0.90    11.50     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   37  -11      55.30     5.51   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         32   36  -11      51.92     5.01   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale            31   34  -15      48.59     5.25   -24.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56R    0.02  
Macclesfield         32   33  -27      45.34     4.77   -39.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.89R    0.14  
Accrington_Stanley   32   30  -14      45.96     5.11   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84R    0.07  
Rotherham            28   29   +8      57.54     6.39    13.81     0.00     0.02     1.22     0.38P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               31   26  -22      41.29     5.26   -31.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.01R    1.67  
Chester              33   26  -27      38.21     4.64   -35.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.71R    3.61  
Grimsby              32   23  -24      37.66     5.04   -31.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.24R    5.81  
Bournemouth          32   21   -7      40.07     5.37    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.15R    2.51  
Luton                31    6   -7      26.00     5.61    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.50R   86.18  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 February 2009, Crawley_Town vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.83     5.34    37.75    90.16    99.97    92.62P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               30   59  +21      86.05     5.84    28.90     6.13    89.89    27.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        33   59  +16      81.43     5.04    22.85     0.69    73.23    19.71P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            33   56  +12      75.31     5.25    14.21     0.02    27.66     5.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +10      73.10     5.12    10.35     0.01    14.72     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   53  +15      77.12     5.63    20.21     0.22    41.84     9.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.31     6.05    34.02     2.45    81.41    25.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   50  +17      71.58     5.75    18.51     0.02    13.90     3.23P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.57     5.93    10.25     0.04    15.82     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.58     6.18    16.29     0.26    37.53     9.73P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    33   46  +15      68.70     4.95    22.31     0.00     3.40     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   31   43   -6      62.76     5.60    -7.60     0.00     0.35     0.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           31   43  -11      60.78     5.37   -14.93     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Weymouth             32   42   -9      59.59     5.28   -12.20     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
Mansfield            32   41   +1      61.44     5.21     2.92     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury            32   36  -14      49.62     5.06   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.04R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.41     5.80    -6.99     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.43R    0.00  
York                 32   33   -5      54.37     5.52    -1.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.73R    0.00  
Forest_Green         31   33  -10      51.81     5.44   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.70R    0.00  
Woking               34   32  -13      44.42     4.56   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.83R    0.01  
Barrow               31   32  -15      48.77     5.29   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.69R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       30   30  -13      45.51     5.40   -22.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.63R    0.01  
Northwich            32   20  -25      34.60     4.98   -32.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.75R    4.86  
Lewes                33   17  -47      24.24     3.76   -64.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   95.11  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4