Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 25 February 2009 at 22:06:50 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 February 2009, Hull vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.64     4.16    49.97    90.21    98.05    99.84    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   55  +25      79.44     4.41    37.46     6.38    54.79    90.18    99.06   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   52  +30      77.99     4.39    44.31     3.24    41.90    87.18    98.49   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   51  +15      71.70     4.68    21.81     0.16     5.03    20.66    82.19    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   45  +13      64.75     4.63    18.34     0.00     0.21     1.93    16.21    95.76     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   41   +6      60.12     4.89    10.17     0.00     0.01     0.21     3.93    76.43     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           26   35   +2      52.19     4.78     3.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    11.82     0.04R    0.00  
Fulham          25   33   +2      49.91     4.93     1.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     6.03     0.16R    0.00  
West_Ham        26   33   -2      48.86     4.79    -2.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.71     0.31R    0.01  
Man_City        26   32   +8      49.09     4.71     9.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.75     0.24R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.15     4.65   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     3.25R    0.13  
Bolton          26   30   -9      45.82     4.90   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86     2.51R    0.15  
Hull            26   29  -16      42.33     4.63   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    10.54R    0.86  
Tottenham       26   28   -4      42.06     4.57    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     8.25R    0.86  
Newcastle       26   28   -9      40.68     4.56   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    15.01R    1.41  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.33     4.72   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    14.18R    1.76  
Stoke           26   25  -19      37.95     4.69   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.51R    7.69  
Blackburn       25   23  -14      36.45     4.83   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    48.31R   11.70  
Middlesbrough   26   23  -18      33.16     4.26   -26.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.82R   29.99  
West_Brom       26   22  -25      32.33     4.44   -35.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.88R   45.43  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 February 2009, Cardiff vs QPR; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    34   64  +21      86.76     4.65    31.52    38.62    76.62    99.77    82.53P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       34   61  +11      80.56     4.72    15.51     6.03    20.37    93.65    37.58P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   59  +30      87.16     5.07    43.84    49.16    79.73    99.66    86.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   53  +15      79.73     5.54    24.04     5.71    19.22    88.90    39.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     34   53   +7      70.50     4.81     8.72     0.03     0.40    30.22     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          34   53   +3      70.61     4.84     4.84     0.04     0.39    29.69     5.52P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   52  +14      72.44     4.95    17.98     0.17     1.45    48.64    14.16P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   52   +1      69.27     4.89     2.17     0.02     0.19    20.94     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   51  +13      73.13     4.98    19.71     0.19     1.48    54.98    15.26P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          34   50  +11      67.78     4.73    12.98     0.01     0.09    15.67     3.98P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              33   48   +2      66.68     5.04     3.42     0.00     0.04    10.99     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        34   45   -9      57.78     4.64   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.34R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +5      63.26     5.42     5.15     0.00     0.03     4.55     0.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry         33   44   -2      61.36     5.05    -2.48     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.27P    0.08R    0.00  
Derby            32   41   -3      58.82     5.32    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.15P    0.49R    0.01  
Doncaster        33   40  -11      53.51     4.66   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.28R    0.13  
Blackpool        34   38  -14      51.97     4.65   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.22R    0.59  
Watford          32   36   -7      55.96     5.38    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    2.97R    0.17  
Barnsley         32   36  -11      50.28     4.95   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.70R    1.20  
Plymouth         34   36  -13      48.78     4.53   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.56R    1.83  
Nottm_Forest     34   34  -14      46.46     4.58   -20.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.77R    5.64  
Norwich          34   33   -9      47.15     4.70   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.63R    4.48  
Southampton      33   31  -19      43.81     4.75   -27.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.35R   19.23  
Charlton         33   26  -21      38.62     4.69   -30.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.60R   66.71  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 February 2009, Brighton vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        33   73  +36      99.25     4.75    49.57    88.46    99.32   100.00    99.55P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   61  +28      89.66     5.48    41.17    10.96    80.19    99.70    86.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     33   60  +17      81.76     5.12    23.59     0.40    11.82    93.21    34.34P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   55   +8      76.97     5.64     9.98     0.08     3.41    69.22    17.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           33   54  +10      74.75     5.13    14.49     0.01     1.20    56.58    14.81P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   53  +10      76.71     5.63    15.02     0.08     3.31    69.08    18.03P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            32   51  +12      72.19     5.43    14.92     0.01     0.49    38.85    10.58P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        33   51  +12      71.20     5.02    15.48     0.00     0.16    31.00     8.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         32   49   +6      69.68     5.38     8.20     0.00     0.07    21.15     4.98P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     32   47   -4      65.30     5.26    -5.60     0.00     0.01     5.08     0.88P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       32   45   +1      64.31     5.32     1.07     0.00     0.00     4.01     0.88P    0.11R    0.00  
Walsall          32   43   -1      63.41     5.33     0.80     0.00     0.00     3.09     0.68P    0.22R    0.00  
Southend         32   43   -9      59.51     5.25   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P    1.44R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   42   +9      65.45     5.79    13.24     0.00     0.02     8.41     2.30P    0.12R    0.00  
Hartlepool       33   39   -6      55.95     5.23    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.03R    0.01  
Yeovil           32   37  -14      53.09     5.18   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.42R    0.07  
Carlisle         32   36   -9      54.92     5.40    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   10.02R    0.04  
Northampton      31   34   -2      53.89     5.62    -3.17     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   12.59R    0.10  
Swindon          31   33   -7      53.45     5.57    -7.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   15.64R    0.18  
Leyton_Orient    32   33  -14      48.56     5.12   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.68R    0.88  
Brighton         31   32  -11      49.31     5.38   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   40.38R    0.62  
Crewe            31   31  -21      45.91     5.30   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.16R    4.01  
Hereford         30   27  -17      43.27     5.49   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   80.62R    6.85  
Cheltenham       31   21  -34      33.46     5.00   -50.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   87.23  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 February 2009, Macclesfield vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            32   59  +21      83.54     5.12    29.16    33.42    74.02    97.97    80.63P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   57  +17      83.73     5.32    26.07    33.69    73.67    97.73    80.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   56  +15      79.11     5.19    21.29     9.10    40.01    89.35    51.18P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   55  +17      77.43     5.26    22.42     5.82    29.73    82.65    41.24P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52  +18      73.64     4.97    23.90     1.02    10.38    61.73    25.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             32   52  +14      74.68     5.31    19.68     1.90    14.49    67.06    26.60P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           30   51  +19      79.51     5.70    29.23    14.18    46.87    89.67    59.14P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               32   51   +9      69.70     5.19     8.52     0.19     2.49    27.95     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   50   +1      67.11     5.23    -2.27     0.07     0.91    14.01     2.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            32   47  +20      71.86     5.26    29.23     0.55     6.13    49.68    19.08P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   43   -3      59.06     4.85    -5.39     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   41   +4      64.40     5.76     6.51     0.02     0.40     8.60     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   40   +5      65.01     6.09     7.97     0.06     0.87    11.50     3.10P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   37  -11      55.29     5.56   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         32   36  -11      51.95     5.04   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale            31   34  -15      48.46     5.23   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57R    0.04  
Macclesfield         32   33  -27      45.37     4.76   -39.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.71R    0.07  
Accrington_Stanley   32   30  -14      46.10     5.14   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.10  
Rotherham            28   29   +8      57.62     6.45    13.93     0.00     0.02     1.41     0.46P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               31   26  -22      41.28     5.26   -31.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.10R    1.67  
Chester              33   26  -27      38.33     4.66   -35.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.97R    3.48  
Grimsby              32   23  -24      37.60     5.05   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.13R    5.90  
Bournemouth          32   21   -7      40.11     5.40    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.26R    2.39  
Luton                31    6   -7      25.95     5.63    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.34R   86.36  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 February 2009, Crawley_Town vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.79     5.32    37.71    90.19    99.98    92.63P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               30   59  +21      86.13     5.80    29.03     6.24    90.29    27.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        33   59  +16      81.48     5.03    22.93     0.68    73.52    20.06P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            33   56  +12      75.35     5.26    14.30     0.02    27.79     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +10      73.09     5.09    10.36     0.01    14.64     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   53  +15      76.99     5.68    20.07     0.22    41.08     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.23     6.08    33.98     2.38    80.90    24.63P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   50  +17      71.56     5.72    18.44     0.02    13.87     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.63     5.91    10.39     0.03    15.86     3.22P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            28   47   +9      76.70     6.14    16.41     0.21    38.12    10.08P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    33   46  +15      68.65     4.99    22.25     0.00     3.33     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   31   43   -6      62.74     5.63    -7.65     0.00     0.36     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           31   43  -11      60.81     5.44   -14.91     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Weymouth             32   42   -9      59.51     5.27   -12.38     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Mansfield            32   41   +1      61.49     5.21     2.97     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury            32   36  -14      49.63     5.06   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.08R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.43     5.78    -6.95     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.40R    0.00  
York                 32   33   -5      54.20     5.52    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green         31   33  -10      51.77     5.45   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.73R    0.00  
Woking               34   32  -13      44.47     4.56   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.67R    0.00  
Barrow               31   32  -15      48.57     5.27   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.76R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       30   30  -13      45.72     5.41   -22.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.50R    0.01  
Northwich            32   20  -25      34.63     5.01   -32.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.65R    4.87  
Lewes                33   17  -47      24.31     3.77   -63.93     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   95.11  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4