Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 February 2009 at 22:06:56 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 February 2009, Fulham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.68     4.14    50.02    89.95    97.99    99.86   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   55  +25      79.51     4.42    37.58     6.69    55.05    90.25    99.03   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   52  +30      78.02     4.39    44.30     3.21    41.91    87.21    98.51   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   51  +15      71.68     4.71    21.78     0.15     4.79    20.46    82.27    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   45  +13      64.73     4.64    18.31     0.00     0.25     2.01    16.27    95.64     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   41   +6      60.14     4.82    10.19     0.00     0.01     0.20     3.83    76.62     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           26   35   +2      52.16     4.76     3.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    11.79     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          25   33   +2      49.77     4.96     1.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.79     0.17R    0.01  
West_Ham        26   33   -2      48.95     4.80    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.91     0.30R    0.00  
Man_City        26   32   +8      49.20     4.71     9.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.82     0.17R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.12     4.66   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     3.36R    0.15  
Bolton          26   30   -9      45.69     4.86   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71     2.43R    0.15  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.00     4.96   -19.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     6.51R    0.51  
Newcastle       26   28   -9      40.62     4.55   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    15.00R    1.36  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.34     4.69   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    13.76R    1.59  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      39.97     4.84    -9.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    18.43R    2.95  
Stoke           26   25  -19      37.95     4.67   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    36.11R    7.75  
Blackburn       25   23  -14      36.52     4.85   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    46.62R   11.84  
Middlesbrough   26   23  -18      33.27     4.24   -26.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.34R   28.90  
West_Brom       26   22  -25      32.35     4.47   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.79R   44.81  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 February 2009, Wolverhampton vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    34   64  +21      86.75     4.68    31.56    36.28    73.28    99.77    80.05P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   60  +11      80.85     5.01    15.44     6.80    21.02    93.28    38.16P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   59  +30      87.31     5.01    44.06    48.26    78.08    99.72    86.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     34   53   +7      70.53     4.84     8.74     0.02     0.32    30.49     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          34   53   +3      70.55     4.83     4.76     0.02     0.27    28.83     5.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          30   52  +15      80.72     5.81    24.95     8.19    24.04    90.62    43.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   52  +14      72.28     5.01    17.70     0.18     1.19    46.96    13.29P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   52   +1      69.27     4.88     2.12     0.01     0.13    20.69     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   51  +13      73.16     5.03    19.69     0.20     1.46    54.93    15.25P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          34   50  +11      67.78     4.73    12.97     0.02     0.11    15.85     3.91P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              32   47   +2      66.44     5.23     2.57     0.01     0.08    10.77     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        34   45   -9      57.83     4.68   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.34R    0.00  
Coventry         33   44   -2      61.42     5.04    -2.41     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +5      63.59     5.66     5.08     0.01     0.04     5.82     1.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby            32   41   -3      58.81     5.26    -5.24     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.11P    0.48R    0.01  
Doncaster        33   40  -11      53.57     4.72   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.41R    0.16  
Blackpool        34   38  -14      51.96     4.66   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.38R    0.60  
Watford          32   36   -7      56.19     5.37    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.04P    2.70R    0.13  
Barnsley         32   36  -11      50.38     4.91   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.00R    1.07  
Plymouth         34   36  -13      48.56     4.50   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.35R    1.78  
Nottm_Forest     34   34  -14      46.53     4.58   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.17R    5.52  
Norwich          34   33   -9      47.16     4.71   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.93R    4.49  
Southampton      33   31  -19      43.82     4.78   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.37R   18.99  
Charlton         33   26  -21      38.50     4.70   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.79R   67.26  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        33   73  +36      99.26     4.75    49.58    88.37    99.26   100.00    99.54P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   61  +28      89.74     5.46    41.28    10.93    79.02    99.65    85.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     32   57  +16      80.82     5.36    23.77     0.35     9.07    88.51    30.16P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           32   54  +12      77.17     5.41    18.18     0.03     2.98    70.54    20.32P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       30   53  +12      78.89     5.88    18.36     0.25     6.63    77.76    23.22P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   52   +6      75.52     5.94     8.31     0.05     2.18    55.59    13.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        32   51  +13      72.91     5.32    17.04     0.01     0.38    41.04    11.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            32   51  +12      72.06     5.42    14.71     0.00     0.41    34.88     9.10P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   49   +6      69.50     5.42     7.97     0.00     0.05    18.21     4.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     32   47   -4      65.38     5.23    -5.50     0.00     0.01     4.54     0.77P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          32   43   -1      63.36     5.28     0.72     0.00     0.00     2.50     0.55P    0.16R    0.00  
Colchester       31   42   +0      62.37     5.55    -0.40     0.00     0.01     2.22     0.54P    0.45R    0.00  
Southend         31   40  -11      57.02     5.48   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    4.94R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   30   39   +7      62.96     6.03     9.83     0.00     0.01     4.02     1.04P    0.52R    0.00  
Yeovil           31   37  -12      55.01     5.49   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   10.05R    0.05  
Hartlepool       32   36   -7      53.74     5.46    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   12.79R    0.13  
Carlisle         31   36   -8      55.62     5.60   -10.01     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    8.10R    0.07  
Northampton      30   33   -2      54.13     5.92    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   12.79R    0.19  
Swindon          30   33   -6      55.75     5.91    -5.05     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    8.75R    0.09  
Leyton_Orient    32   33  -14      48.34     5.13   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.27R    1.26  
Brighton         30   31  -11      49.71     5.68   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   37.02R    0.89  
Crewe            30   28  -23      43.91     5.48   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.11R    9.70  
Hereford         30   27  -17      43.46     5.48   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.10R    8.23  
Cheltenham       30   21  -32      34.65     5.27   -48.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R   79.37  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 February 2009, Wycombe vs Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            32   59  +21      83.47     5.09    29.07    29.60    71.31    97.87    78.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   57  +17      83.81     5.31    26.21    30.31    72.13    97.61    79.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   56  +15      79.33     5.13    21.64     8.22    38.61    89.82    50.59P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52  +18      73.50     4.97    23.68     0.81     8.73    59.62    23.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             31   52  +16      74.79     5.56    19.77     2.43    15.62    65.31    26.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             32   52  +14      74.71     5.28    19.68     1.55    12.84    66.01    24.53P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           29   51  +20      82.02     5.92    31.95    25.02    61.92    94.19    71.34P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               32   51   +9      70.05     5.19     9.09     0.23     2.57    29.18     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   50   +1      67.10     5.23    -2.30     0.04     0.78    13.32     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            31   47  +21      74.56     5.48    32.47     1.74    14.51    67.76    30.67P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   41   +4      63.99     5.75     5.91     0.01     0.30     7.05     1.72P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   40   +5      64.96     6.00     7.88     0.04     0.64    10.51     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   40   -4      57.02     5.10    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   37  -11      55.34     5.56   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         32   36  -11      51.91     5.00   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield         31   33  -25      47.54     5.11   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.14R    0.04  
Port_Vale            30   31  -17      45.90     5.41   -28.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.54R    0.23  
Rotherham            28   29   +8      57.83     6.39    14.21     0.00     0.03     1.33     0.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   29  -14      46.66     5.42   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.57R    0.16  
Barnet               31   26  -22      41.50     5.25   -30.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.21R    1.77  
Chester              33   26  -27      38.06     4.64   -36.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.80R    4.38  
Grimsby              31   23  -23      39.12     5.34   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.99R    4.53  
Bournemouth          31   18   -8      37.27     5.54   -10.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.73R    7.32  
Luton                30    5   -7      26.52     5.92    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.93R   81.57  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2009, Altrincham vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.82     5.34    37.75    90.53    99.98    92.72P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               29   56  +19      85.20     6.07    28.26     5.22    86.35    25.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        32   56  +15      80.22     5.27    22.47     0.52    64.53    17.08P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +10      73.12     5.12    10.40     0.01    14.86     2.95P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.30     5.47    14.14     0.01    23.03     4.28P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.42     6.09    34.27     2.58    81.66    24.95P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              30   52  +15      78.58     5.89    21.96     0.55    52.75    13.39P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.79     5.95    10.59     0.02    16.63     3.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   47  +13      70.64     5.87    15.73     0.01    11.30     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            27   46   +9      77.84     6.48    17.54     0.53    45.95    12.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    32   43  +13      67.26     5.24    20.56     0.00     2.29     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   31   43   -6      62.66     5.60    -7.77     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Altrincham           31   43  -11      60.66     5.39   -15.10     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Weymouth             32   42   -9      59.56     5.27   -12.29     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.15R    0.00  
Mansfield            32   41   +1      61.45     5.24     2.89     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Salisbury            32   36  -14      49.66     5.06   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.63R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.28     5.84    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.90R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.51     5.68     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53R    0.00  
Forest_Green         30   32  -10      50.97     5.60   -15.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.33R    0.00  
Woking               33   32  -12      45.29     4.77   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.61R    0.02  
Barrow               30   32  -13      49.24     5.48   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.31R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       29   30  -12      46.73     5.60   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.12R    0.02  
Northwich            31   19  -25      34.40     5.23   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.24R    6.91  
Lewes                32   17  -43      24.76     3.91   -61.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   93.05  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4